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  • Localization and flow-dependency on blending techniques
    Meteorol. Z. (IF 2.072) Pub Date : 2020-10-16
    Aitor Atencia; Yong Wang; Alexander Kann; Florian Meier

    Lagrangian extrapolation nowcasting is still the most accurate technique for predicting precipitation for the first hours despite the improvements achieved by data assimilation in high-resolution numerical weather prediction models. Yet, the combination of both sources by blending techniques is necessary for creating a seamless forecast for the nowcasting range. The blending is usually carried by adding

    更新日期:2020-10-27
  • A comparison of different versions of the Stochastically Perturbed Parametrization Tendencies (SPPT) scheme
    Meteorol. Z. (IF 2.072) Pub Date : 2020-10-16
    Clemens Wastl; Yong Wang; Christoph Wittmann

    The Stochastically Perturbed Parametrization Tendencies (SPPT) approach is widely used in ensemble prediction systems (EPSs) to represent model error. In this paper two different versions of SPPT, independent SPPT (iSPPT) and parametrization based SPPT (pSPPT), are implemented and tested in the Convection-permitting – Limited Area Ensemble Forecasting system (C‑LAEF) developed at ZAMG (Zentralanstalt

    更新日期:2020-10-27
  • Comparison of statistical ensemble methods for probabilistic nowcasting of precipitation
    Meteorol. Z. (IF 2.072) Pub Date : 2020-10-16
    Wei Tao; Aitor Atencia; Yang Li; Xuexing Qiu; Zhiming Kang; Yong Wang

    In the nowcasting of precipitation, predictability often varies with lead times and rain patterns. Ensemble techniques have been developed to deal with forecast uncertainty. Both “time-shifting” and “time-lagged” methods are pragmatic ensemble approaches to derive probabilistic precipitation from deterministic forecasts. This study synthesizes these two statistical probabilistic methods with customized

    更新日期:2020-10-27
  • A probabilistic precipitation nowcasting system constrained by an Ensemble Prediction System.
    Meteorol. Z. (IF 2.072) Pub Date : 2020-10-16
    Aitor Atencia; Yong Wang; Alexander Kann; Clemens Wastl

    The latest radar observations are widely used as the main source for deterministic precipitation nowcasting techniques, such as the Integrated Nowcasting through Comprehensive Analysis (INCA) system, in operational and research centers. However, this approach does not take into account other sources of information such as Ensemble Prediction Systems (EPS) from the Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP)

    更新日期:2020-10-27
  • Objective detection of gravity waves in Himawari‑8 imagery in support of aviation forecasting
    Meteorol. Z. (IF 2.072) Pub Date : 2020-10-20
    Na He; Alexander Jann; Yong Wang

    In this paper, the applicability of an objective gravity wave detection method based on Gabor filter plus grating cell operators to Himawari‑8 geostationary satellite imagery is investigated for the visible, water vapor and infrared window bands. The method was originally developed for imagery of the Meteosat Second Generation geostationary satellite programme; as Himawari‑8 satellite data have higher

    更新日期:2020-10-27
  • Feature selection, ensemble learning, and artificial neural networks for short-range wind speed forecasts
    Meteorol. Z. (IF 2.072) Pub Date : 2020-10-20
    Petrina Papazek; Irene Schicker; Claudia Plant; Alexander Kann; Yong Wang

    The objective of this study is to provide reliable nowcasting (up to six hours) to short-range wind speed forecasts of up to 40 hours ahead in 10 meters height for meteorological observation sites (i.e., point forecasting). The proposed method is a data-driven approach combining artificial neural networks, ensemble learning, and feature selection techniques. Particularly, we improve a pre-defined baseline

    更新日期:2020-10-27
  • Machine Learning Approach to Summer Precipitation Nowcasting over the Eastern Alps
    Meteorol. Z. (IF 2.072) Pub Date : 2020-10-20
    Linye Song; Irene Schicker; Petrina Papazek; Alexander Kann; Benedikt Bica; Yong Wang; Mingxuan Chen

    This paper presents a new machine learning-based nowcasting model for hourly summer precipitation over the Eastern Alps. An artificial neural network (ANN) using the multi-layer perceptron algorithm was applied and evaluated against the Integrated Nowcasting through Comprehensive Analysis (INCA) nowcasting system and a multiple linear regression (MLR) model. Results show that the ANN model has a better

    更新日期:2020-10-27
  • A case study of empirical copula methods for the statistical correction of forecasts of the ALADIN-LAEF system
    Meteorol. Z. (IF 2.072) Pub Date : 2020-10-20
    Elisa Perrone; Irene Schicker; Moritz N. Lang

    Weather forecasting is challenging due to the exceptional complexity of the atmospheric phenomena involved. Modern weather forecasts are typically in the form of an ensemble of forecasts obtained from multiple runs of numerical weather prediction models. Ensemble forecasts are often biased and affected by dispersion errors, and they should be statistically corrected to gain accuracy. The standard correction

    更新日期:2020-10-27
  • Statistical Post-Processing with Standardized Anomalies Based on a 1 km Gridded Analysis
    Meteorol. Z. (IF 2.072) Pub Date : 2020-10-20
    Markus Dabernig; Irene Schicker; Alexander Kann; Yong Wang; Moritz N. Lang

    Statistical post-processing is necessary to correct systematic errors of numerical weather prediction models, especially in complex terrains such as the Alps. However, this post-processing is usually applied on every grid point individually, which can be computationally expensive. We want to present a method to forecast all grid points of a certain region simultaneously to expedite operational forecast

    更新日期:2020-10-27
  • On ice supersaturation over the Arctic
    Meteorol. Z. (IF 2.072) Pub Date : 2020-08-04
    Klaus Gierens; Lena Wilhelm; Michael Sommer; Dan Weaver

    We study ice-supersaturation in the cold (< -38∘$<-38^{\circ}$C) arctic troposphere and lower stratosphere using high-resolution quality-controlled radiosonde data. On average, ice supersaturation occurs in about 40 % to 60 % of the profiles with frequency of occurrence increasing with geographic latitude. The frequencies of occurrence show (so far) no long-term trends. The seasonal cycles are not

    更新日期:2020-08-20
  • On the temporal variability of widespread rain-on-snow floods
    Meteorol. Z. (IF 2.072) Pub Date : 2020-08-04
    Amelie Krug; Cristina Primo; Svenja Fischer; Andreas Schumann; Bodo Ahrens

    Floods which affect several macro-scale river basins simultaneously can cause devastating damage. Future flood-risk assessment depends significantly on the knowledge about the atmospheric conditions leading to floods and external climate drivers. Nonetheless, only a few studies have investigated widespread floods, their occurrence frequency, and their underlying hydro-meteorological processes. We extended

    更新日期:2020-08-20
  • Classifying direct normal irradiance 1‑minute temporal variability from spatial characteristics of geostationary satellite-based cloud observations
    Meteorol. Z. (IF 2.072) Pub Date : 2020-08-04
    Marion Schroedter-Homscheidt; M. Kosmale; Y.‑M. Saint-Drenan

    Variability of solar surface irradiances in the 1‑minute range is of interest especially for solar energy applications. Eight variability classes were previously defined for the 1 min resolved direct normal irradiance (DNI) variability inside an hour. In this study spatial structural parameters derived fromsatellite-based cloud observations are used as classifiers in order to detect the associated

    更新日期:2020-08-20
  • Investigating predictability of offshore winds using a mesoscale model driven by forecast and reanalysis data
    Meteorol. Z. (IF 2.072) Pub Date : 2020-08-04
    Sven-Erik Gryning; Rogier Floors

    The atmosphere is inherently unpredictable by deterministic Numerical Weather Prediction models at both small and large temporal and spatial scales with some intermediate regime where predictability has been demonstrated; this study deals with time scales only. The chaotic nature at the smaller time scales is predominantly caused by turbulence and at the large scales by non-linearity of the Navier-Stokes

    更新日期:2020-08-20
  • UTCI climatology and its future change in Germany – an RCM ensemble approach
    Meteorol. Z. (IF 2.072) Pub Date : 2020-08-04
    Benedict Manuel Brecht; Gerd Schädler; Janus Willem Schipper

    In the present study, the quantity, duration and intensity of heat stress events in Germany as well as their future change and relation with weather types were investigated. A small ensemble of regional climate simulations with the regional climate model (RCM) COSMO-CLM driven by four general circulation models (GCMs) was used to calculate the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI); the UTCI is a well-accepted

    更新日期:2020-08-20
  • Convection Initiation over the Eastern Arabian Peninsula
    Meteorol. Z. (IF 2.072) Pub Date : 2020-04-07
    Oliver Branch; Andreas Behrendt; Zhecheng Gong; Thomas Schwitalla; Volker Wulfmeyer

    We investigated summer statistics of convection initiation (CI) events in the north-eastern part of the Arabian Peninsula, particular the Al Hajar Mountains of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Oman (54.5–59.5° E longitude) with thermal radiances from the first generation (MFG) sensor of Meteosat‑7 at 57° E in the years 2010 to 2016. Previously, local precipitation radar was used for identifying convective

    更新日期:2020-04-07
  • REAL-Fog: A simple approach for calculating the fog in the atmosphere at ground level
    Meteorol. Z. (IF 2.072) Pub Date : 2020-04-07
    Philipp Körner; Dieter Kalaß; Rico Kronenberg; Christian Bernhofer

    We developed the “REAL-Fog” (R‑Estimated spatiAL Fog) tool to calculate the ground-level fog by means of liquid water content (lwc) at a temporal resolution of 1 hour. The tool is based on a distributed and mainly physical model and requires a digital elevation model (DEM) and hourly observations of temperature and humidity. The tool spatially interpolates the air temperature and derived vapour pressure

    更新日期:2020-04-07
  • Simulated influence of air pollution and aerosols on summer precipitation over the Pearl River Delta region
    Meteorol. Z. (IF 2.072) Pub Date : 2020-04-07
    Jiangnan Li; Yaqin Yang; Fangzhou Li; Wenshi Lin

    A simulation study of precipitation processes in summer over the Pearl River Delta region was conducted using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model coupled to with Chemistry, WRF-Chem. We investigated the influence of air pollution and aerosols on the summertime heavy precipitation over the subtropical regions. The study showed the following results. (1) The control test can simulate the largescale

    更新日期:2020-04-07
  • Physically based correction of systematic errors of Rotating Shadowband Irradiometers
    Meteorol. Z. (IF 2.072) Pub Date : 2020-04-07
    Anne Forstinger; Stefan Wilbert; Anton Driesse; Natalie Hanrieder; Roman Affolter; Sharad Kumar; Neeraj Goswami; Norbert Geuder; Frank Vignola; Luis Zarzalejo; Aron Habte

    Accurate measurements of direct normal, diffuse horizontal and global horizontal irradiance (DNI, DHI and GHI) are needed for meteorological studies and are essential for the solar resource assessment at potential solar power plant sites. Often, these potential sites are remote and hence require robust sensors that require minimal maintenance that are not affected strongly by soiling. Therefore, Rotating

    更新日期:2020-04-07
  • The Research Unit VolImpact: Revisiting the volcanic impact on atmosphere and climate – preparations for the next big volcanic eruption
    Meteorol. Z. (IF 2.072) Pub Date : 2020-04-07
    Christian von Savigny; Claudia Timmreck; Stefan A. Buehler; John P. Burrows; Marco Giorgetta; Gabriele Hegerl; Akos Horvath; Gholam Ali Hoshyaripour; Corinna Hoose; Johannes Quaas; Elizaveta Malinina; Alexei Rozanov; Hauke Schmidt; Larry Thomason; Matthew Toohey; Bernhard Vogel

    This paper provides an overview of the scientific background and the research objectives of the Research Unit “VolImpact” (Revisiting the volcanic impact on atmosphere and climate – preparations for the next big volcanic eruption, FOR 2820). VolImpact was recently funded by the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG) and started in spring 2019. The main goal of the research unit is to improve our understanding

    更新日期:2020-04-07
  • Spatio-temporal Structure of the Boundary Layer under the Impact of Mountain Waves
    Meteorol. Z. (IF 2.072) Pub Date : 2020-01-01
    Norbert Kalthoff; Bianca Adler; Inge Bischoff-Gauss

    During the Hydrological cycle in the Mediterranean Experiment (HyMeX) in autumn 2012 intensive measurements were conducted in the Tavignano Valley, which extends from the centre to the coast of the island of Corsica. On the investigated day, the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) in the valley showed a distinctive spatio-temporal variability, which resulted from the interaction and superposition of mesoscale

    更新日期:2020-01-01
  • Characteristics of deep moist convection over Germany in multi-source data
    Meteorol. Z. (IF 2.072) Pub Date : 2020-01-01
    Isabella Zöbisch; Caroline Forster; Tobias Zinner; Luca Bugliaro; Arnold Tafferner; Kathrin Wapler

    This study analyses characteristics of deep moist convection (DMC) over Germany with the aim to select relevant parameters that have the skill to improve the identification of current life cycle phase and the forecast of a lifetime of DMCs in an operational weather forecasting environment. No differentiation between thunderstorm organization types is done, since no simple differentiation method is

    更新日期:2020-01-01
  • Satellite image-based generation of high frequency solar radiation time series for the assessment of solar energy systems
    Meteorol. Z. (IF 2.072) Pub Date : 2020-01-01
    Sebastian Schreck; Marion Schroedter-Homscheidt; Martin Klein; Karl Kiên Cao

    Solar energy is envisaged as a major pillar of the global transition to a climate-friendly energy system. Variability of solar radiation requires additional balancing measures to ensure a stable and secure energy supply. In order to analyze this issue in detail, solar radiation time series data of appropriate temporal and spatial resolution is necessary. Common weather models and satellites are only

    更新日期:2020-01-01
  • Long-range modifications of the wind field by offshore wind parks – results of the project WIPAFF
    Meteorol. Z. (IF 2.072) Pub Date : 2020-01-01
    Andreas Platis; Jens Bange; Konrad Bärfuss; Beatriz Cañadillas; Marie Hundhausen; Bughsin Djath; Astrid Lampert; Johannes Schulz-Stellenfleth; Simon Siedersleben; Thomas Neumann; Stefan Emeis

    This publication synthesizes the results of the WIPAFF (WInd PArk Far Fields) project. WIPAFF focused on the far field of large offshore wind park wakes (more than 5 km downstream of the wind parks) located in the German North Sea. The research project combined in situ aircraft and remote sensing measurements, satellite SAR data analysis and model simulations to enable a holistic coverage of the downstream

    更新日期:2020-01-01
  • The WMO Regional Climate Centre – Provider of Climate Services for National Meteorological and Hydrological Services in Europe
    Meteorol. Z. (IF 2.072) Pub Date : 2020-01-01
    Peter Bissolli; Hermann Mächel; Maya Körber; Andrea Kreis; Buhalqem Mamtimin; Stefan Rösner

    Many countries need climate services in order to adapt their development plans to a changing climate. However, not all countries have the resources to provide the full range of climate services themselves.The WMO Regional Climate Centre (WMO RCC) for the World Meteorological Organization's Regional Association VI (Europe) is mandated to support member countries through their respective National Meteorological

    更新日期:2020-01-01
  • Climate dynamics: temporal development of the occurrence frequency of heavy precipitation in Saxony, Germany
    Meteorol. Z. (IF 2.072) Pub Date : 2020-01-01
    Andrea S. Schaller; Johannes Franke; Christian Bernhofer

    Several studies showed the impact of global climate change in Germany and Saxony including the risk of increasing precipitation extremes. Here, heavy precipitation was analyzed on the basis of daily precipitation sums using the 95th percentile (index R95p). The long term development was studied for selected stations (1917–2013). Transects with high spatial resolution (1×1 km) (1961–2015) complemented

    更新日期:2020-01-01
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