Long transients may be common in ecological dynamics, but the implications such dynamics have for ecological management have not been fully explored. Long transient periods can easily be mistaken for stable state dynamics, but may require dramatically different management policies. Here, I explore the optimal management of stochastic ecological systems that may contain either a tipping point or a ghost

Stochastic ecological dynamics result from both transient and asymptotic features of the underlying system, yet explanations for observed patterns often emphasize asymptotics. For example, an ecological state (e.g., a particular population size or community composition) that occurs frequently and/or persists for a meaningful duration might be assumed to be a stable equilibrium, even though transients

The densities of a species and its specialist enemies are expected to covary, giving rare species an advantage that may promote species coexistence. This hypothesis has been particularly applied to tree species coexistence, and theoretical work has investigated how the spatial scale of dispersal and degree of enemy specialization influence coexistence outcomes. A simplifying assumption of this modeling

We consider here mutualisms where there are multiple species sharing a resource supplied by the same partner. If, as commonly assumed, there is competition between the species, then only the superior competitor should persist. Nevertheless, coexistence of multiple species sharing the same mutualistic partner is a widespread phenomenon. Regulation of nutrient exchange, where each species receives resources

Syntrophic systems are common in nature and include forms of obligate mutualisms in which each participating organism or component of an organism obtains from the other an essential nutrient or metabolic product that it cannot provide for itself. Models of how these complementary resources are allocated between partners often assume optimal behavior, but whether mechanisms enabling global control exist

Bet-hedging strategies help organisms to decrease variance in their fitness in unpredictably changing environments, by which way lineage fitness can be maximized in the given environment. As one strategy, diversified bet-hedging helps to achieve that by increasing phenotypic variation in fitness-related traits. For example, in diversified tracking, parents may divide the developmental phenotypes of

Many animal populations providing ecosystem services, including harvest, live in seasonal environments and migrate between seasonally distinct ranges. Unfortunately, two major sources of human-induced global change threaten these populations: climate change and anthropogenic barriers. Anthropogenic infrastructure developments present a global threat to animal migrations through increased migration

Persistence of ecological systems under climate change depends on how fast the environment is changing and on how species respond to that change. The rate of environmental change is a key factor affecting the responses. Adaptation, migration to more favorable habitats, and extinction are fundamental responses that species exhibit to climate change, but extinction is the most extreme one when species

Quantifying the strength, sign, and origin of species interactions, along with their dependence on environmental context, is at the heart of prediction and understanding in ecological communities. Pairwise interaction models like Lotka-Volterra provide an important and flexible foundation, but notably absent is an explicit mechanism mediating interactions. Consumer-resource models incorporate mechanism

Wolbachia, a bacterium that infects insect populations, has been examined extensively in Drosophila populations and, in recent years, has garnered significant attention for its potential to reduce the spread of dengue in the Aedes mosquito population. Similar applications to Anopheles mosquitoes for the reduction of malaria have not been as thoroughly studied, as Anopheles were previously thought to

Small-scale spatial variability can affect community dynamics in many ecological and biological processes, such as predator-prey dynamics and immune responses. Spatial variability includes short-range neighbour-dependent interactions and small-scale spatial structure, such as clustering where individuals aggregate together, and segregation where individuals are spaced apart from one another. Yet, a

Many organisms perform regular migrations over long distances. These movements are often related to feeding and reproductive periods and regulated by oceanographic conditions as well as physiological and behavioural traits. Different individual traits and their associated evolutionary constraints will ultimately shape the migratory strategy (and route) of individuals. Optimality theory can provide

Despite advances in metapopulation theory, recent studies have emphasized the difficulty in understanding and accurately predicting dynamics in nature. We address this knowledge gap by coupling 4 years of population data for the freshwater zooplankter Daphnia pulex, inhabiting 38 newly established ponds in Upstate New York, with (i) a spatially explicit stochastic model and (ii) a deterministic model

Two widely investigated areas of theory in ecology over the past half century are species-abundance distributions (SADs) and Taylor’s power law of fluctuation scaling (TL). This paper connects TL with a classic SAD, MacArthur’s broken-stick model. Each of these models is more than 60 years old, but apparently the connection has not been observed previously. For large numbers of species, the broken-stick

Threshold harvesting removes the surplus of a population above a set threshold and takes no harvest below the threshold. This harvesting strategy is known to prevent overexploitation while obtaining higher yields than other harvesting strategies. However, the harvest taken can vary over time, including seasons of no harvest at all. While this is undesirable in fisheries or other exploitation activities

Ecological communities are characterized by the interactions among the species living within a given habitat and can be conveniently represented as networks of interactions. Variation in the way the interactions are organized in the network determines whether the ecological community is able to support coexistence and resist collapse. Analyzing network properties can thus provide insights as to why

Most organisms are defended against others, and defenses such as secondary metabolites in plants vary across species, individuals, and subindividual organs. Plant leaves show an impressive variability in quantitative defense levels, even within the same individual. Such variation might mirror physiological constraints or represent an evolved trait. One important hypothesis for the prevalence of defense

The monitoring of ecosystems and the spread of information concerning their state among human stakeholders is often a lengthy process. The importance of mutual feedbacks between socioeconomic and ecological dynamics is being increasingly recognised in recent studies, but it is generally assumed that the feedback from the environment is instantaneous, ignoring any delay in the spread of ecosystem knowledge

Although the effects of species diversity on food web stability have long been recognized, relatively little is known about the influence of intraspecific diversity. Empirical work has found that intraspecific diversity can increase community resilience and resistance, but few theoretical studies have attempted to use modeling approaches to determine how intraspecific diversity will affect food web

The mid-domain effect states that in a spatially bounded domain species richness tends to decrease from the center towards the boundary, thus producing a peak or plateau of species richness in the middle of the domain even in the absence of any environmental gradient. This effect has been frequently used to describe geographic richness gradients of trophically similar species, but how it scales across

Ecotourism is potentially capable of making biodiversity conservation and ecosystem management economically feasible. Here, we propose a simple model for ecotourism development considering the heterogeneity of tourists, motivated by the case of Jeju Island, South Korea. We analyze the optimal investment in accommodation capacity (i.e., hotels, restaurants, and transportation) and in improving the quality

Over the past century, the Earth has experienced roughly 0.4–0.8 ∘C rise in the average temperature and which is projected to increase between 1.4 and 5.8 ∘C by the year 2100. The increase in the Earth’s temperature directly influences physiological traits of individual species in ecosystems. However, the effect of these changes in community dynamics, so far, remains relatively unknown. Here, we show

The representation of carbon allocation (CA) in ecosystem differs tremendously among models, resulting in diverse responses of carbon cycling and storage to global change. Several studies have highlighted discrepancies between empirical observations and model predictions, attributing these differences to problems of model structure. We analyzed the mathematical representation of CA in models using

Abstract Resource pulses are widespread phenomena in diverse ecosystems. Irruptions of generalist consumers and corresponding generalist predators often follow such resource pulses. This can have severe implications on the ecosystem and also on the spread of diseases or on regional famines. Suitable management strategies are necessary to deal with these systems. In this study, we develop a general

Abstract Tallgrass prairie has been reduced to a fraction of its original extent, due to rapid conversion to other land use types, especially agricultural and urban. Restoration is a relatively new process to convert agricultural land back to communities dominated by native vegetation. We used a differential equations compartmental model to quantify changes between land use types, incorporating the

Abstract Since it was defined by Hutchinson, in 1957, the fundamental niche has been assumed, implicitly or explicitly, to have some convex shape. This assumption requires some critical analysis. In this work, we examine the special case of Grinnellian niches (those composed by sets of points of non-interactive variables in multidimensional spaces). We show that annual species in seasonal environments

Abstract In this article, we present a modern commentary on Ludwig, Jones, and Holling’s classic paper, “Qualitative analysis of insect outbreak systems: the spruce budworm and forest,” published in the Journal of Animal Ecology in 1978. In contrast to papers that become classics for advancing one big idea, Ludwig et al.’s contribution is striking for its breadth of impact. It has become a foundational

Abstract In this article, a new mathematical method for static analysis of compartmental systems is developed in the context of ecology. The method is based on the novel system and subsystem partitioning methodologies through which compartmental systems are decomposed to the utmost level. That is, the distribution of environmental inputs and intercompartmental system flows as well as the organization

Abstract We analyze the model of costly signalling theory and show that dishonest signalling is still a possible outcome even for costly indices that cannot be faked. We assume that signallers pay the cost for sending a signal and that the cost correlates negatively with signaller’s quality q and correlates positively with signal’s strength s. We show that for any given function f with continuous derivative

Abstract The relationship between species richness and productivity changes with spatial scale, but the way in which it changes and the underlying mechanisms remain unclear. We address this critical knowledge gap using a new mechanistic model of the spatial scaling of species richness–productivity (SP) relationships for a local community. Our model is neutral and hence assumes that species dynamics

Abstract We study how the complexity of evolutionary dynamics in the classic MacArthur consumer-resource model depends on resource uptake and utilization rates. The traditional assumption in such models is that the utilization rate of the consumer is proportional to the uptake rate. More generally, we show that if these two rates are related through a power law (which includes the traditional assumption

Abstract The impact of the variation of the number of functional traits on functional diversity assessment is still poorly known. Although the covariation between these two parameters may be desirable in some situations (e.g. if adding functional traits provides relevant new functional information), it may also result from mathematical artefacts and lead to misinterpretation of the results obtained

Abstract One of the most widely verified empirical regularities of ecology is Taylor’s power law of fluctuation scaling, or simply Taylor’s law (TL). TL says that the logarithm of the variances of a set of random variables or a set of random samples is (exactly or approximately) a linear function of logarithm of the means of the corresponding random variables or random samples: logvariance = log a + b log mean

Abstract A new mathematical method for the static analysis of ecological systems has recently been developed by the author and was presented in a separate article. Based on this methodology, multiple new ecological system measures and indices of matrix, vector, and scalar types are systematically introduced in the present paper. These mathematical system analysis tools are quantitative ecological indicators

Abstract The use of critical slowing down as an early warning indicator for regime switching in observations from noisy dynamical systems and models has been widely studied and implemented in recent years. Some systems, however, have been shown to avoid critical slowing down prior to a transition between equilibria (Ditlevsen and Johnsen 2010; Hastings and Wysham Ecology Letters 13(4):464–472 2010)

Abstract Local interactions among individual members of a population can generate intricate small-scale spatial structure, which can strongly influence population dynamics. The two-way interplay between local interactions and population dynamics is well understood in the relatively simple case where the population occupies a fixed domain with a uniform average density. However, the situation where

Abstract Resource-limited complex systems are ubiquitous in the natural world, as is the potential for instability in such systems. Classic models of interacting species have provided a basis for our understanding of stability in these systems, and suggest that stable coexistence requires weak, rare, and asymmetric interactions. But missing from these models is an explicit understanding of how resource

Abstract Whether species diversity contributes to the ecosystem stability has been one of the most heated arguments in community ecology. Potentially different contributions of different ecosystem species have not been explicitly taken into account. With fig species and their associated fig wasp community as model system, we bring community structure into the “diversity-stability” debate by establishing

Abstract Chaotic systems are sensitive to small changes in parameters and initial conditions, but are spatially distributed chaotic populations sensitive to the location of perturbations within their domain? Here, we examine the transient responses to perturbation in a density-dependent population model with asymmetrical dispersal, where offspring are moved some distance downstream of the parent population

The original version of this article unfortunately contains an incorrect panel (b) in Fig. 1 introduced during the production process.

Abstract Ephemeral wetlands or kettle holes contain an often unique biodiversity of flora and fauna. In New Zealand, they can be an important breeding ground for iconic taonga species such as kakī/black stilt. Understanding the possible effects of climate change on the holes is a challenge as there is often limited information on the local hydrology, restricting the applicability of established hydrological

Abstract Explaining coexistence in species-rich communities of primary producers remains a challenge for ecologists because of their likely competition for shared resources. Following Hutchinson’s seminal suggestion, many theoreticians have tried to create diversity through a fluctuating environment, which impairs or slows down competitive exclusion. However, fluctuating environment models often only

Abstract An essential topic in theoretical ecology is the extinction of populations subject to demographic stochasticity. Mechanistic models of demographic stochasticity, such as birth-death processes, can be analytically intractable, so are frequently approximated with stochastic differential equations (SDEs). Here, we consider two pitfalls in this type of approximation. First, familiar deterministic

Many anthropogenic stressors broadly inflict mortality or reduce fecundity, including habitat destruction, pollution, climate change, invasive species, and multispecies harvesting. Here, we show-in four analytical models of interspecies competition-that broadly inflicted stressors disproportionately cause competitive exclusions within groups of ecologically similar species. As a result, we predict

History matters when individual prior conditions contain important information about the fate of individuals. We present a general framework for demographic models which incorporates the effects of history on population dynamics. The framework incorporates prior condition into the i-state variable and includes an algorithm for constructing the population projection matrix from information on current

A tension between cooperation and conflict characterizes the behavioral dynamics of many social species. The foraging benefits of group living include increased efficiency and reduced need for vigilance, but social foraging can also encourage theft of captured prey from conspecifics. The payoffs of stealing prey from others (scrounging) versus capturing prey (producing) may depend not only on the frequency

Ecological theory about the dynamics of interacting populations is mainly based on unstructured models that account for species abundances only. In turn, these models constitute the basis for our understanding of the functioning of ecological communities and ecosystems and their responses to environmental change, natural disturbances and human impacts. Structured models that take into account differences

Mosquito-borne diseases contribute significantly to the global disease burden. High-profile elimination campaigns are currently underway for many parasites, e.g., Plasmodium spp., the causal agent of malaria. Sustaining momentum near the end of elimination programs is often difficult to achieve and consequently quantitative tools that enable monitoring the effectiveness of elimination activities after

Ecological theory predicts that the presence of temporal autocorrelation in environments can considerably affect population extinction risk. However, empirical estimates of autocorrelation values in animal populations have not decoupled intrinsic growth and density feedback processes from environmental autocorrelation. In this study we first discuss how the autocorrelation present in environmental

Does society benefit from private measures to mitigate infectious disease risks? Since mitigation reduces both peak prevalence and the number of people who fall ill, the answer might appear to be yes. But mitigation also prolongs epidemics and therefore the time susceptible people engage in activities to avoid infection. These avoidance activities come at a cost-in lost production or consumption, for

Measles was successfully eradicated in the Pan-American Health Region in 2002. However, maintenance of elimination in parts of Africa, Europe, the USA, and other regions is proving difficult, despite apparently high vaccine coverage. This may be due to the different age structure in developed and developing populations, as well as to differences in the duration of maternal immunity. We explore the

Classical life-history theory predicts that acute, immunizing pathogens should maximize between-host transmission. When such pathogens induce violent epidemic outbreaks, however, a pathogen's short-term advantage at invasion may come at the expense of its ability to persist in the population over the long term. Here, we seek to understand how the classical and invasion-persistence trade-offs interact

Dispersal is a fundamental biological process that results in the redistribution of organisms due to the interplay between the mode of dispersal, the range of scales over which movement occurs, and the scale of spatial heterogeneity, in which patchiness may occur across a broad range of scales. Despite the diversity of dispersal mechanisms and dispersal length scales in nature, we posit that a fundamental

Many autotrophs vary their allocation to nutrient uptake in response to environmental cues, yet the dynamics of this plasticity are largely unknown. Plasticity dynamics affect the extent of single versus multiple nutrient limitation and thus have implications for plant ecology and biogeochemical cycling. Here we use a model of two essential nutrients cycling through autotrophs and the environment to

Simple temporal models that ignore the spatial nature of interactions and track only changes in mean quantities, such as global densities, are typically used under the unrealistic assumption that individuals are well mixed. These so-called mean-field models are often considered overly simplified, given the ample evidence for distributed interactions and spatial heterogeneity over broad ranges of scales

Although parasites represent an important component of ecosystems, few field and theoretical studies have addressed the structure of parasites in food webs. We evaluate the structure of parasitic links in an extensive salt marsh food web, with a new model distinguishing parasitic links from non-parasitic links among free-living species. The proposed model is an extension of the niche model for food

The metaecosystem framework has been proposed to conceptualize the interactive effects of dispersal and resource flows on the structure and functioning of communities in a heterogeneous environment. Here, we model a two-patch metaecosystem where two species with a trade-off in resource requirements compete for two limiting resources—generalizing the so-called gradostat experimental setup. We study

Contemporary theory of predator coexistence through relative non-linearity in their functional responses strongly relies on the Rosenzweig and MacArthur (1963) equations in which the (autotrophic) prey exhibits logistic growth in the absence of the predators. This implies that the prey is limited by a resource such as light or space, which availability is independent of the predators. This assumption

The marginal value theorem (MVT) provides a framework to predict how habitat modifications related to the distribution of resourcesover patches should impact the realized fitness of individuals and their optimal rate of movement (or patch residence times) across the habitat. The MVT theory has focused on the consequences of changing the shape of the gain functions in some patches, describing for instance

The idea of niche construction is regarded as an interesting, if not essential, element of population dynamics. Classical results from population biology emerge from such a formulation, such as chaotic behavior, the self-organized emergence of Allee points, critical transitions, and hysteresis. Relaxing the assumption of a descending limb in classic 1-D map representations of chaos, the application