A two‐phase Bayesian model is presented for updating risk assessments for locations susceptible to infection by exotic pathogens. Human transportation from previously infected regions to uninfected regions is the main dispersal mechanism. Information embedded in patterns within the transportation flow are exploited in the update process. We explore the sensitivity of the model's outputs to changes

We present a discrete‐time predator–prey model in which the prey population is assumed to evolve in response to a toxicant. We incorporate frequency‐dependent selection into the prey evolution, assuming that an individual's susceptibility to predation depends on both the trait it possesses and the traits of others in the population. When frequency‐dependent selection is symmetric, we show that the

Because fish stocks often straddle state, national, and international boundaries, there is a need to coordinate fishery management across jurisdictions. This is particularly important when the abundance or spatial distribution of the stock varies through time. This is best achieved when management objectives and strategies align, and there is coordinated decision‐making and catch accounting among jurisdictions

This paper develops an integrated framework for modeling payment for ecosystem services (PES) mechanisms that deliver multiple environmental services. Specifically, under a community‐led PES, forest conservation is promoted to deliver carbon and stream water benefits. The upstream community is paid for avoided fuelwood harvesting through a United Nations programme on reducing emissions from deforestation

The fungal pathogen Pseudogymnoascus destructans (Pd) causes white‐nose syndrome (WNS), an emerging disease that affects North American bat populations during hibernation. Pd has rapidly spread throughout much of the continent, leading to mass mortality and threatening extinction in several bat species. While previous studies have proposed treatment methods, little is known about the impact of metapopulation

Systems analysis and operations research have long been the tools to study the spatial and temporal relationships in forest resource management (as reviewed by Bettinger & Chung, 2004; Minas et al., 2012; Thompson et al., 2019; Toth, 2020). Those models are capable of reporting the tradeoffs between alternative management plans or policy choices. They also suggest optimal or suboptimal solutions as

We present a learning heuristic using dynamic programming (DP) formulations to address both spatial and temporal detail in multiobjective forest management planning. The problem is decomposed into smaller problems to avoid the curse of dimensionality associated with DP. The heuristic learns from multiple decomposed problem formulations to identify stands assigned the same management option regardless

This study aims to present an efficient methodology for land use optimization based on minimization of runoff and sediment and maximization of economic benefits, occupational opportunities, and land use suitability in the Tilabad watershed in northeast of Iran. The land use map of the area was prepared using the Landsat satellite images and field surveys. The amounts of runoff and sediment were estimated

Rainfall data series with adequate quality and length are often incomplete or nonexistent. Thus, filling in rainfall gaps becomes necessary to complete databases. This article proposes the use of satellite products (TRMM—Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission, CHIRPS—Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Stations and CMORPH—CPC Morphing Technique) to fill gaps in the rainfall historical series

The increase in carbon dioxide (CO2) gas concentration in the atmosphere is primarily responsible for the threat of global warming. Forest is one of the prime sinks of CO2. The reduction in the global forest cover due to human activities has contributed significantly to the increase in CO2 levels. Reforestation and afforestation are avenues to control the atmospheric CO2 level; however, several demographic

When the article (Rahimzadeh et al., 2019) was first published online, in the abstract, line six, the unit of the number is wrong. It is appearing as 90 cm. It should be 90 m3/s. We apologize for this error.

The amount of ultimately recoverable resources and/or timing of peak production have been the central purpose of numerous studies. One broadly applied method is Hubbert modeling, subsequently extended as multicyclic Hubbert modeling. This paper explores a modification to conventional multicyclic Hubbert modeling that we term “cycle‐jumping” wherein the overlap of multiple curves is limited and explicitly

Contingency firelines can be used to back up primary lines to increase probability of fire containment, decrease fire losses, and improve firefighter safety. In this study, we classify firelines into primary, contingency, and response lines. We design a modeling process to iteratively implement a mixed integer programming model to evaluate contingency strategies under randomly generated fireline breaching

This study analyzes the influence mechanism of migration on farmers' forestland transfer behavior by using instrumental variable‐Probit and instrumental variable‐Tobit models based on survey data of 505 households in 50 villages in 10 sample counties in Jiangxi Province. The results show that the farmers' willingness to transfer forestland is generally not high, but there is a great difference in the

We investigate a nonautonomous predator–prey model system with a Crowley–Martin functional response. We perform rigorous mathematical analysis and obtain conditions for (a) global attractivity and permanence in the form of integrals which improve the traditional conditions obtained by using bounds of involved parameters; and (b) the existence of periodic solutions applying continuation theorem from

The passenger pigeon (Ectopistes migratorius) was an iconic species in eastern North America that was one of the most numerous birds in the world at the time of European colonization. Passenger pigeons went extinct in 1914 due to excessive hunting. Current research aims to de‐extinct the passenger pigeon and someday release the species into its historic range. To determine under which conditions a

Natural resource managers use barriers to deter the movement of aquatic invasive species. Research and development of new invasive species barriers is often evaluated in pond and field scales using high‐resolution telemetry data. Telemetry data sets can be a rich source of data about fish movement and behavior but can be difficult to analyze due to the size of these data sets as well as their irregular

The study of water quality and the quantification of reserves and their variations according to natural and anthropogenic forcing is necessary to establish an adequate management plan for groundwater resources. For this purpose, a modeling approach is a useful tool that allows, after calibration phase and verification of simulation, and under different scenarios of forcing and operational changes,

Regionalization approach is adopted to test the credibility of a newly developed, large‐scale, conceptual hydrological model, namely, satellite‐based hydrological model (SHM), under data‐scarce conditions. SHM has a modular structure. There are five modules: surface water module (SW), which uses natural resources conservation service‐curve number and Hargreaves equation; forest module (F), which uses

Taking advantage of the electrification strategy, Northwest China has made full use of its natural resources endowment, to develop renewable energy as the substitution of thermal power. To evaluate carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from electric power sector, an extended Kaya identity equation and the Logarithmic mean Divisia index decomposition method are applied to Northwest China from 1998 to 2017

We study pollution cleanup in the Ganges in Varanasi, India. Voters elect politicians and elected politicians decide how much pollution to clean up. Between the two time periods, there is an election. Politicians are sincere or insincere. The marginal cost of public funds measures how efficiently elected politicians transform tax receipts into pollution cleanup. Voters have identical per period utility

The monthly precipitations obtained during 51 years of measurement in 24 stations of Soummam watershed in Algeria were analyzed to describe rainfall trends and aridity state of the area using statistical modeling. The choice of distribution laws was justified by comparing fitting results of different distributions laws used in literature reviews. Hence, the p values proved that Generalized Extreme

We develop a modeling framework, based on discrete‐time dynamic optimization, to study the effect of legacy nutrient stores and soil nutrient dynamics on optimal nutrient management and agri‐environmental policy in crop production. Three alternative measures are studied to reduce nutrient loss: reduced fertilization, nonlegume catch crop cultivation and gypsum amendment. According to our results, landowner

Both in the United States and in Europe there is ongoing work on reversing habitat fragmentation and the attendant loss in biodiversity in river systems caused by hydropower and other developments. Fish ladders and other measures are being introduced to restore the connectivity in river systems. In this paper, we set up a theoretical model to investigate what the conditions are for such an investment

The paper presents an agent‐based modeling and simulation approach to model the forest fuel supply chain for heating purposes (i.e., heating plants). The paper focuses on the simulation of the processes of timber harvesting by forest enterprises and the competition of heating plants for the limited resource of wood chips. In particular, the work identifies different stakeholders having an adaptive

The association between environmental factors and Engelmann spruce mortality in western Colorado was investigated using Bayesian hierarchical zero‐and‐one inflated beta regressive model. The results indicated that the probability of mortality occurrence rate was positively associated with moderate to warm temperature zones, moderate precipitation, and single canopy stands with the smaller size class

Industrial forestry in boreal regions increases fragmentation and may decrease the viability of some wildlife populations, particularly the woodland caribou, Rangifer tarandus caribou. Caribou protection often calls for changes in forestry practices, which may increase the cost and reduce the available timber supply. We present a linear programming model that assesses the trade‐off between habitat

Environmental variability has a strong influence on marine fish stocks. Thus, management and harvest policies based on deterministic indicators, such as maximum sustainable yield (MSY), may be inappropriate facing such uncertainties. In this study, we investigate the long‐term behavior of a single‐species fishery, whose stock is harvested by several fleets and affected by variability in the recruitment

With the development of social economy and the diversification of human needs there is conflict between different functions of cultivated land. In this study, a practical evaluating methodology, which is a three‐dimensional trade‐off model on multifunctionality of cultivated land was constructed, and it was applied to Panxi region of southwestern China. The following results were obtained. (a) From

Fisheries are characterized by variations in space and time. This study investigates the characteristics of seasonality in cod trawl fisheries in two distinct areas: the coast along the northern Norway and the high sea area of the Barents Sea. Catch per unit effort (CPUE) is used to proxy variation in stock abundance. A CPUE function has been estimated in the frequency‐domain framework, to detect the

Given the hydrological, social, and economic complexity of water resources, planning for evaluation of such resources is extremely challenging. The vulnerability and limitations of water resources in one hand, and the growing demand on the other hand necessitates integrated planning for resource protection. Accordingly, applying Smart partial least squares software for structural equation modeling

Swimmer's itch is an emerging disease caused by flatworm parasites that often use water birds as definitive hosts. When parasite larvae penetrate human skin they initiate localized inflammation that leads to intense itching. Concerns about this issue have been growing recently due to an apparent increase in the global occurrence of swimmer's itch and its subsequent impacts on recreational activities

Emerald ash borer (EAB), a wood‐boring insect native to Asia, was discovered near Detroit in 2002 and has spread and killed millions of ash trees throughout the eastern United States and Canada. EAB causes severe damage in urban areas where it kills high‐value ash trees that shade streets, homes, and parks and costs homeowners and local governments millions of dollars for treatment, removal, and replacement

Conflicting evidence exists supporting linear and nonlinear density‐dependent population growth when species have slow life histories. The Ricker (linear) and θ‐logistic (nonlinear) models are commonly used to analyze survey data for these species, but no evaluation has examined whether these hypotheses can be differentiated with field data. We conducted a simulation exploring effects from shape of

We address the management of invasive estuarine herbs providing some economic benefits and characterized by two modes of reproduction affecting the ecosystem. The study began by analyzing the stability of the plant dynamics using an approximate model resulting from the negligence of the seasonality in seedlings production. The optimal control seeks to find strategies with a minimal implementation cost

In the past few decades, considerable efforts have been made to model rainfall‐runoff and to predict the hydrological impacts of various factors using computer technology. The Environmental Protection Agency Storm Water Management Model (SWMM) has been proved to be a powerful tool which simulates the flow of watersheds with different characteristics. The SWMM model is a dynamic rainfall‐runoff simulation

Flavescence dorée is a serious and incurable vine disease transmitted by an insect vector. Focusing on its spatial diffusion and on its control with pesticides, this paper investigates the private strategies of wine producers and their socially optimal counterparts. The socially optimal regulation has to address two externalities regarding private treatment decisions: (a) the insufficient consideration

Valuation of water in an aquifer depends on reliable information about the hydrologic conditions of an aquifer. Regions of depression emerge in an aquifer because groundwater cannot seamlessly flow between shallow and deep aquifer locations, and our analysis shows that the degree of lateral flow influences the value of the water in the aquifer. The assumption that groundwater declines uniformly over

Knowing the temporal and spatial variability of the probability of rainfall occurrence is indispensable for the planning and management of agricultural and agroindustrial activities. This study aims to evaluate the applicability of four cumulative distribution functions (CDFs; exponential, two‐parameter exponential, mixed exponential, and gamma) to estimate the probability of daily rainfall in the

In this paper, three fuzzy nonlinear mathematical models, corresponding to crisp models described in Devi and Gupta (2018), are formulated to study the comparative behavior of carbon dioxide concerning vegetation biomass in crisp and fuzzy environments. Logistic growth and regrowth of vegetation biomass are considered in the first two models, and delay is incorporated in the regrowth of vegetation

We examine spatial and temporal variability in normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), snow cover and land surface temperature (LST) in Himachal Pradesh between 2001 and 2017 using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) datasets. Mann–Kendall trend tests and Sen's slope estimates indicate increasing NDVI trends during the postmonsoon period. Increasing snow cover trend is observed

A nonlinear dynamical system is developed in the proposed study to gain insight into the tribal‐forest system in the presence of unplanned development activities. Here, the system is comprised of densities of forest resources, tribal population, and development activities as dynamic variables. The realistic dynamics between the tribal population and forest resources is considered to be of modified

This paper considers pollination‐mutualism systems, including intermediary resources, which are represented by nectar for convenience. In the plant–nectar–pollinator system, we focus on the case in which the plant cannot persist without pollination and the pollinator can live independently. When nectar is assumed to rapidly approach a steady state, the plant–nectar–pollinator system can be described

Meteorological extreme events have a major impact on water resources, economic development, and ecosystem health. In this study, maximum precipitation and maximum temperature indices were derived for Isfahan province, in central Iran, over the historical (1992–2017) and future (2020–2100) periods. Precipitation and maximum temperature data from the REMO model under RCP4.5 scenario were used to investigate

This paper investigates the rich dynamics in a tritrophic food chain mathematical model, consisting of three species: prey, intermediate predators, and top predators. It is assumed that alternative food are supplied to intermediate predators in addition to feeding on prey. We consider a general Holling type response function and analyze the model. The existence and stability of six possible equilibrium

Natural resources are not infinitely resilient and should not be modeled as being such. Finitely resilient resources feature tipping points and history dependence. This paper provides a didactical discussion of mathematical methods that are needed to understand the optimal management of such resources: viscosity solutions of Hamilton–Jacobi–Bellman equations, the costate equation and the associated

We present a steady‐state threshold risk analysis framework for exploited populations following the Beverton–Holt recurrence. The Beverton–Holt model is widely applied in the assessment of species biomass and fitted to experimental data to obtain a suitable range of parameter values. To account for the uncertainty in these parameter values, such as the growth rate, we analyze the probability of the

Black‐tailed prairie dogs (Cynomys ludovicianus) are a keystone species of shortgrass and midgrass prairies, and they are essential for successful reintroduction efforts of endangered black‐footed ferrets (Mustela nigripes). Sylvatic plague extirpates black‐tailed prairie dog colonies. We present a model to determine optimal control methods to sustain a black‐tailed prairie dog colony against the plague

Multiobjective optimization is increasingly used to assist decision‐making in forest management when multiple objectives are considered and conflict with each other. Since forest management problems may deal with combinatorial optimization, as the scale of a problem increases, the computation complexity increases exponentially beyond the practical use of exact methods. We propose a multiple‐objective

Food chain models with interactions between key species are useful tools for ecological conservation and economic sustainability in commercial fisheries. In this study, we build a food chain model coupled with optimal control theory and focus on the Black Sea anchovy population in the southern part of the Black Sea. Our objective is to find the optimal harvesting strategy that maximizes the discounted

The Trojan Y Chromosome strategy (TYC) is a promising eradication method for biological control of nonnative species. The strategy works by manipulating the sex ratio of a population through the introduction of supermales that guarantee male offspring. In the current study, we compare the TYC method with a pure harvesting strategy. We also analyze a hybrid harvesting model that mirrors the TYC strategy

We present a general‐equilibrium (GE) bioeconomic model of Utah's Great Salt Lake (GSL) ecosystem that tightly links the lake's ecosystem with its regional economy and attendant international trading partners, thereby enabling full identification of dynamic feedback effects in the presence of prolonged drought. The drought modeled here mimics a drying climate's impact on the lake's nutrient pool. We

This paper investigates the effects of population, investment, urbanization, industrial structure, policy instrument, and enterprise size on energy intensity in Guangdong, China. A dynamic optimal theoretical framework is utilized and empirical results are reported using panel data from 2006 to 2015. The fixed effects models and spatial fixed effects models both show that population, investment, urbanization

In real‐world wetland vegetation morphology (WVM) detection, large scene variations such as those due to landform, vegetation, sunlight, weather, and sky, as well as camera parameter settings such as focal length and shooting angle, require systematic and complicated artificial intelligence technology to accurately discriminate inter and intra‐class wetland objections. To deal with these challenges

This paper deals with sustainability criteria and standards. The maximin criterion, as the highest performance that can be sustained over time, promotes intergenerational equity, a pivotal issue for sustainability. The viable control approach, by investigating trajectories and actions complying over time with various standards and constraints, provides major insights into strong sustainability. The

We examine the role of support for coalition stability in common pool resource games such as fisheries games. Some players may not want to join a coalition that jointly manages a resource. Still, because they benefit from spillovers, they may want to support the coalition with a transfer payment to set incentives for others to join. We find that the impact of support on equilibria of this game is limited

That numerous rural laborers migrate to urban areas to find off‐farm jobs has become an outstanding economic phenomenon in China. To examine the impact of rural labor off‐farm employment on household forest management, we built binary logistic models and Tobit models by applying a sample survey data of 500 households in rural Jiangxi in 2018. Households’ participation and investment in forest management

Exploiting a rich data set including both individual fishing activities and ecology, we study how eutrophication and climate warming influence plankton biodiversity in Lake Zürich and the consequent effects on fishers’ behavior and fishery yield. Our analysis indicates that changes in the fishery of Lake Zürich were driven by complex dynamic interactions between fishing efforts, environmental conditions

We consider a fishery described by two state variables, namely, the stock of fish and its marine environmental quality, operationalized as an index of habitat extent and quality, which influences the growth rate and the carrying capacity (MEQ). Assuming that myopic fishing agents exploit the fishery, we characterize and contrast the steady‐state values in two scenarios: (a) a scenario where the agents

Conversion of grassland to cropland has been linked to many complex environmental challenges in natural resource systems. South Dakota is a mosaic of grasslands, wetlands, and cropland that has experienced tremendous land use change over the past 10 years and is expected to continue for the next 50 years. The rate of future conversion may vary greatly depending on economic, policy, and social factors