Two high intensity wildfire events, 70 years apart, burnt large areas of Mountain Ash forests in the Central Highlands, Victoria, Australia. Both resulted in Royal Commissions (the strongest form of judicial inquiry in Australia) as to their cause(s) owing to large losses of life and property. Here we tested the hypothesis that site ‘wetness’—determined using a Topographic Wetness Index—is a major

Pronounced changes in the Arctic environment add a new potential driver of anomalous weather patterns in midlatitudes that affect billions of people. Recent studies of these Arctic/midlatitude weather linkages, however, state inconsistent conclusions. A source of uncertainty arises from the chaotic nature of the atmosphere. Thermodynamic forcing by a rapidly warming Arctic contributes to weather events

The direct impacts of climate change on crop yields and human health are individually well-studied, but the interaction between the two have received little attention. Here we analyze the consequences of global warming for agricultural workers and the crops they cultivate using a global economic model (GTAP) with explicit treatment of the physiological impacts of heat stress on humans’ ability to work

Food nitrogen footprints (N-footprints) for China in 2013 and Japan in 2011 were estimated with a top-down method (the N-Input method). This method evaluates the new nitrogen input for food production in both the country of interest and the countries from which food is imported. The food N-footprints in China and Japan were 21.96 kg N capita–1 yr–1 and 18.44 kg N capita–1 yr–1, respectively, which

Higher levels of soil organic matter improve soil water retention, meaning they could mitigate agricultural yield losses from drought. Yet evidence to support such claims is mixed and incomplete. Using data from 12 376 county-years in the United States of America, we show that counties with higher soil organic matter are associated with greater yields, lower yield losses, and lower rates of crop insurance

Energy has long been a driving force of economic growth; however, it comes with environmental costs and security challenges. This study analyzes the energy–economy nexus and explores their decoupling possibilities by using cross-country data over the years 1971–2014. The results indicate that, while energy use and economic growth exhibit a typical inverted U-shaped decoupling relationship for the industrialized

Climate warming and permafrost thaw have the potential to shift Arctic carbon (C) cycling dynamics so ponds, which represent over a quarter of northern circumpolar surface water area, may play a larger role in the mineralization of terrestrial C and emission of greenhouse gases (GHG). Here, we constrain how active layer detachments (ALDs) affect C cycling dynamics in High Arctic ponds (n = 19) through

Analysis of the water balance of the southwestern United States (SWUS) during 1900 through 2018 was used to evaluate the magnitude of the turn-of-the-century (TOC) drought in the SWUS. Results indicate that the warm season (April through September) soil moisture and runoff during the TOC drought were among the lowest values of the 1900 through 2018 period. Additionally, increases in temperature were

Appropriately characterizing future changes in regional-scale precipitation requires assessment of the interactive effect owing to greenhouse gas-induced climate change and the physical growth of the built environment. Here we use a suite of medium resolution (20 km grid spacing) decadal scale simulations conducted with the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled to an urban canopy parameterization

Precipitation is changing as the climate warms, and downpours can become more intense due to the increased water holding capacity of the atmosphere. However, the exact nature of the precipitation response and its characteristics is still not well understood due to the complex nature of the physical processes underlying the formation of clouds and precipitation. In this study, present and future Norwegian

Traditional methods of assessing virtual water (VW) trade usually overestimate the foreign VW used by a country as the imported VW can also be re-exported and used by the countries other than the initial importer. Due to its ability to provide better estimates of transboundary resource use, the global value chain (GVC) method can provide more precise guidelines for the global policy debate over sustainable

Disturbed African tropical forests and woodlands have the potential to contribute to climate change mitigation. Therefore, there is a need to understand how carbon stocks of disturbed and recovering tropical forests are determined by environmental conditions and human use. In this case study, we explore how gradients in environmental conditions and human use determine aboveground biomass (AGB) in 1958

Carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from aquatic surface to the atmosphere has been recognized as a significant factor contributing to the global carbon budget and environmental change. The influence of river damming on the CO2 emissions from reservoirs remains poorly constrained. This is hypothetically due to the change of hydraulic retention time (HRT) and thermal stratification intensity of reservoirs

This study adopted an empirical analysis to explore social resilience to major natural disasters along the Tea-Horse Road (THR) in southwest China and to understand why and how the THR and its connected communities maintained and developed over a long period. A set of archive data, literature re-analysis, statistical data, monitoring data, and surveyed materials were collected and qualitatively and

A simple formula for estimating approximate values of return levels for sub-daily rainfall is presented and tested. It was derived from a combination of simple mathematical principles, approximations and fitted to 10 year return levels taken from intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves representing 14 sites in Oslo. The formula was subsequently evaluated against IDF curves from independent sites

A need for multi-functional assessment tools evaluating trade-offs and co-benefits for various types of Nature-Based Solutions (NBS) has been increasingly identified in recent years. Methodologically, concepts for a tool are presented which include quantifying the demand and potential for NBS to enhance ecosystem service (ES) provision, and linking ESs to readily quantifiable and legislatively-relevant

Assessing vulnerability to climate change and extremes is the first step towards guiding climate change adaptation. It provides the basis to decide ‘what’ adaptation measures are needed ‘where’. Vulnerability which is defined as a function of exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity, differs spatially and evolves temporally. Therefore, it is imperative to understand the dynamics of vulnerability

Particulate pollution has become more than an environmental problem in rapidly developing economies. Large-scale, long-term and high concentration of particulate pollution occurs much more frequently, which not only affects human health but also economic production. As PM10 is one of the main pollutants, the prediction of its concentration is of great significance. In this study, we present a PM10

Increasing incidents of regional pollution in China have threatened the well-being and physical and mental health of individuals. Therefore, the potential impact of air pollution on mental health must be assessed. This study examined the relationship between air pollution and mental health, as well as the regulatory effects of health behaviors. Air pollution was measured using the concentration of

Predicting suitable locations for invasive alien terrestrial vertebrates (IATV) under different scenarios of global change is essential for local and transboundary management aimed to prevent the spread of invasions. Using a spatial modelling approach adapted to invasive species, we identify range-shifts in suitable areas for 15 of the most harmful IATV in Europe, considering future climate and land-use

Extreme weather and climate events associated with El Nio and La Nia cause massive societal impacts. Therefore, observations and forecasts are used around the world to prepare for such events. However, global warming has caused warm El Nio events to seem bigger than they are, while cold La Nia events seem smaller, in the commonly used Nio3.4 index (sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies over 5∘ S–5∘

Improved knowledge of the contributing sources of uncertainty in projections of Arctic sea ice over the 21st century is essential for evaluating impacts of a changing Arctic environment. Here, we consider the role of internal variability, model structure and emissions scenario in projections of Arctic sea-ice area (SIA) by using six single model initial-condition large ensembles and a suite of models

Wildfire activity in the western United States (US) has been increasing, a trend that has been correlated with changing patterns of temperature and precipitation associated with climate change. Health effects associated with exposure to wildfire smoke and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) include short- and long-term premature mortality, hospital admissions, emergency department visits, and other respiratory

Increasing trends in base cations, pH, and salinity of freshwaters have been documented in US streams over 50 years. These patterns, collectively known as freshwater salinization syndrome (FSS), are driven by multiple processes, including applications of road salt and human-accelerated weathering of impervious surfaces, reductions in acid rain, and other anthropogenic legacies of change. FSS mobilizes

The recently proposed Green Deals and ‘building back better’ plans have affirmed the importance to make green transitions inclusive. This is particularly related to the labour market, which may witness significant changes. Empirically, this issue has until now received limited attention. The links between poverty and climate change are explored mainly through the lenses of climate change adaptation

The COVID-19 pandemic has led to an unprecedented decline in global air transport and associated reduction in CO2 emissions. The International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) reacted by weakening its own CO2-offsetting rules. Here we investigate whether the pandemic can be an opportunity to bring the sector on a reliable low-carbon trajectory, with a starting point in the observed reduction in air

The recent dry and warm years in Europe are often assessed as extreme in terms of socio-economic and environmental losses. However, the impact of a drought is a function of its duration. This fact needs to be considered in the evaluation of a drought. In this study, we use a hydrological model to analyze the 2018 European drought, an event that significantly affected vegetation. We show that the severity

Surface soil moisture (SSM) is a key factor for water and heat exchanges between land surface and the atmosphere. It is also important to water resources, agriculture, and ecosystems. In the backdrop of global warming, SSM variations and potential causes are not well-known at regional scales. Based on soil moisture (SM) data from GLDAS-Noah and 16 global climate models (GCMs) selected from 25 GCMs

Recent wildfires in the western United States have led to substantial economic losses and social stresses. There is a great concern that the new climatic state may further increase the intensity, duration, and frequency of wildfires. To examine temporal and spatial features of historical wildfire trends and future changes, a common fire index, the Keetch–Byram Drought Index (KBDI), is calculated over

This article analyzes the large-scale circulations producing daily precipitation extremes in the Southwestern Alps and their trends from 1958 to 2017. We consider a high-resolution precipitation data set of 1 1 km2 and the weather patterns associated to the precipitation seasonal maxima at each grid point. The high-resolution allows us to analyze in details the atmospheric influences triggering seasonal

Land regions are warming rapidly. While in a warming world at extra-tropical latitudes vegetation adapted to higher temperatures may move in from lower latitudes this is not possible in the tropics. Thus, the limits of plant functioning will determine the nature and composition of future vegetation. The most temperature sensitive component of photosynthesis is photosystem II. Here we report the thermal

The Tropical Atlantic is facing a massive proliferation of Sargassum since 2011, with severe environmental and socioeconomic impacts. As a contribution to this proliferation, an increase in nutrient inputs from the tropical rivers, in response to climate and land use changes or increasing urbanization, has been often suggested and widely reported in the scientific and public literature. Here we discuss

Marine debris is a growing threat to hundreds of marine animal species. To understand the consequences of marine debris to wildlife populations, studies must go beyond reporting the incidence of wildlife and debris interactions and aim to quantify the harm resulting from these interactions. Tubenosed seabirds are globally threatened, with a near universal risk of debris ingestion and an unquantified

We develop an evidence map of the academic research on energy transitions (ETs) with a focus on what that literature says about public policy for addressing climate change. In this article, the questions we ask are: What trends do we see in the topics that occur in journal articles on the energy transition? And to what extent has public policy been a focus? Where do we need or see energy transitions

Satellite-based inverse modeling has the potential to drive aerosol precursor emissions, but its efficacy for improving chemistry transport models (CTMs) remains elusive because of its likely inherent dependence on the error characteristics of a specific CTM used for the inversion. This issue is quantitively assessed here by using three CTMs. We show that SO2 emissions from global GEOS-Chem adjoint

The climate mitigation potential of urban nature-based solutions (NBSs) is often perceived as insignificant and thus overlooked, as cities primarily pursue NBSs for local ecosystem services. Given the rising interest and capacities in cities for such projects, the potential of urban forests for climate mitigation needs to be better understood. We modelled the global potential and limits of urban reforestation

The 2015 Paris Agreement led to a number of studies that assessed the impact of the 1.5 C and 2.0 C increases in global temperature over preindustrial levels. However, those assessments have not actively investigated the impact of these levels of warming on fire weather. In view of a recent series of high-profile wildfire events worldwide, we access fire weather sensitivity based on a set of multi-model

As more countries commit to emissions reductions by midcentury to curb anthropogenic climate change, decarbonization of the electricity sector becomes a first-order task in reaching this goal. Renewables, particularly wind and solar power, will be predominant components of this transition. How availability of the wind and solar resource will change in the future in response to regional climate changes

Small island developing states (SIDS) are often at the forefront of climate change impacts, including those related to health, but information on mental health and wellbeing is typically underreported. To help address this research lacuna, this paper reviews research about mental health and wellbeing under climate change in SIDS. Due to major differences in the literature’s methodologies, results,

Coal has historically been a primary energy source in the United States (U.S.). The byproducts of coal combustion, such as fine particulate matter (PM2.5), have increasingly been associated with adverse birth outcomes. The goal of this study was to leverage the current progressive transition away from coal in the U.S. to assess whether coal PM2.5 is associated with preterm birth (PTB) rates and whether

Fisheries are coupled human–natural systems locally, regionally, and globally. However, human–nature interactions within and between adjacent and distant systems (metacouplings) are rarely studied in fisheries despite their prevalence and policy relevance. We filled this knowledge gap by using network models to identify how the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic has

Nitrification is a major pathway of N2O production in aerobic soils. Measurements and model simulations of nitrification and associated N2O emission are challenging. Here we innovatively integrated data mining and machine learning to predict nitrification rate () and the fraction of nitrification as N2O emissions (). Using our global database on and , we found that the machine-learning based stochastic

We investigate tropical cyclone (TC) activity and intensity within a 100 km radius of Bermuda between 1955 and 2019. The results show a more easterly genesis over time and significant increasing trends in TC intensity (maximum wind speed (Vmax)) with a decadal Vmax median value increase of 30 kts from 33 to 63 kts (r = 0.94, p = 0.02), together with significant increasing August, September, October

Societies worldwide make large investments in the sustainability of integrated human-freshwater systems, but uncertainty about water supplies under climate change poses a major challenge. Investments in infrastructure, water regulation, or payments for ecosystem services may boost water availability, but may also yield poor returns on investment if directed to locations where water supply unexpectedly

Steppes on the Mongolian Plateau, mainly within the Republic of Mongolia and the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region (IMAR) of China, have been subjected to widespread degradation as a result of climate change and human utilization. Field experiments and long-term observations suggest that the productivity of degraded grassland ecosystems might show greater instability, i.e. stronger interannual variation

Indonesia has been the largest supplier of palm oil since 2007, and now supplies around 56% of the global market. While the existing literature has paid serious attention to the diverse impacts of oil palm plantation on socioeconomic factors and the environment, less is known about the joint role of biophysical and socioeconomic factors in shaping the temporal and spatial dynamics of oil palm expansion

Despite the increasing Siberian river discharge, the sensitivity of streamflow to climate forcing/permafrost thawing is poorly quantified. Based on the Budyko framework and superposition principles, we detected and attributed the changes in streamflow regimes for the three great Siberian rivers (Ob, Yenisei, and Lena) during 1936–2019. Over the past 84 years, streamflow of Ob, Yenisei and Lena has

Annual greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from residential energy use in the United States peaked in 2005 at 1.26 Gt CO2-eq yr−1, and have since decreased at an average annual rate of 2% yr−1 to 0.96 Gt CO2-eq yr−1 in 2019. In this article we decompose changes in US residential energy supply and GHG emissions over the period 1990–2015 into relevant drivers for four end-use categories. The chosen drivers

This study aims to understand the role of near-surface temperatures in predicting US climatic extremes using the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) system. Here, the forecasting skill was measured by anomaly correlation coefficient (ACC) between the observed and forecasted precipitation (PREC)/2-meter air temperature (T2m) anomalies over the contiguous United States (CONUS) during 1982–2012

Crops worldwide are simultaneously affected by weeds, which reduce yield, and by climate change, which can negatively or positively affect both crop and weed species. While the individual effects of environmental change and of weeds on crop yield have been assessed, the combined effects have not been broadly characterized. To explore the simultaneous impacts of weeds with changes in climate-related

This paper undertakes a systematic review of the literature to understand current trends in the food–energy–water (FEW) nexus for development-oriented policy support. The paper follows three steps: (a) a bibliometric analysis of FEW nexus research, (b) a content analysis of FEW nexus research, and (c) development of a framework that fills existing gaps in FEW nexus research. The review found that FEW

A large proportion of local pollutants originating from the road transport sector is generated during the so-called cold-start phase of driving, that is, the first few minutes of driving after a car has stood inactive for several hours. Drawing on data from the German Mobility Panel (MOP), this paper analyzes the factors that affect the frequency of cold starts, approximated here by the number of car

In their comment on our paper (Caesar et al 2020 Environ. Res. Lett. 15 024003), Chen and Tung (hereafter C&T) argue that our analysis, showing that over the last decades Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) strength and global mean surface temperature (GMST) were positively correlated, is incorrect. Their claim is mainly based on two arguments, neither of which is justified: first, C&T

The recent Environmental Research Letters article by Caesar, Rahmstorf and Feulner (hereafter CRF) is essentially a Comment on our Nature paper (Chen and Tung 2018 Nature 559 387–91), but without an accompanying rebuttal from us. In this unusual format for the exchange outside Nature, our rebuttal then becomes a Comment here at Environmental Research Letters. Our original proposal that the rate of

Milldams and their legacies have significantly influenced fluvial processes and geomorphology. However, less is known about their effects on riparian zone hydrology, biogeochemistry, and water quality. Here, we discuss the potential effects of existing and breached milldams on riparian nitrogen (N) processing through multiple competing hypotheses and observations from complementary studies. Competing

Satellite-based burned area products are accurate for many regions. However, only limited assessments exist for Indonesia despite extensive burning and globally important carbon emissions. We evaluated the accuracy of four MODIS-derived (moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer) burned area products (MCD45A1 collection 5.1, MCD64A1 (collection 5.1 and 6), FireCCI51), and their sensitivity to burned-area

Concerns over climate change are motivated in large part because of their impact on human society. Assessing the effect of that uncertainty on specific potential impacts is demanding, since it requires a systematic survey over both climate and impacts models. We provide a comprehensive evaluation of uncertainty in projected crop yields for maize, spring and winter wheat, rice, and soybean, using a

Increasing growing season temperatures and the seasonal redistribution of precipitation due to climate change have recently been recorded across the globe. Simultaneously, increases of severe droughts and windstorm frequency have also been documented. However, the impacts of climate change on tree growth performance and fitness might largely differ among coexisting species. Consequently, ongoing temperature

Permafrost degradation induced by climate warming is widely observed in the Northern Hemisphere. However, changes in permafrost sensitivity to climate warming (PSCW) in the future remains unclear. This study examined the changes in permafrost distribution in the Northern Hemisphere under global warming of 1.5 C and 2 C, and then characterized the spatial and temporal characteristics of PSCW. Global

Climate change has contributed to recent declines in mountain snowpack and earlier runoff, which in turn have intensified hydrological droughts in western North America. Climate model projections suggest that continued and severe snowpack reductions are expected over the 21st century, with profound consequences for ecosystems and human welfare. Yet the current understanding of trends and variability