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Gendered migration responses to drought in Malawi J. Demogr. Econ. (IF 0.882) Pub Date : 2021-04-06 Luis G. Becerra-Valbuena, Katrin Millock
Migration is a common means of adaptation to weather shocks. Previous research has identified heterogeneous effects according to age, sex, and wealth, but little is still known about how marriage-related institutions affect such migration. Relying on a quasi-experimental identification strategy, we analyze marriage- and work-related migration in Malawi following large droughts, separating the effects
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A recent change in the relation between women's income and childbirth: heterogeneous effects of work-family balance policy J. Demogr. Econ. (IF 0.882) Pub Date : 2021-04-06 Min-Su Chung, Keunjae Lee
It has been widely perceived in South Korea that the rise in a woman's income is negative for her childbirth. This study tries to verify the hypothesis empirically because the Korean government initiated the basic plan for low fertility in 2006 and has constantly strengthened work–family balance policy since then. Our analysis using a household annual data over 18 years, 1999–2016, indicates that married
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The geography of climate migration J. Demogr. Econ. (IF 0.882) Pub Date : 2021-03-29 Michał Burzyński, Frédéric Docquier, Hendrik Scheewel
In this paper, we investigate the long-term effects of climate change on the mobility of working-age people. We use a world economy model that covers almost all the countries around the world, and distinguishes between rural and urban regions as well as between flooded and unflooded areas. The model is calibrated to match international and internal mobility data by education level for the last 30 years
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Gender norm conflict and marital outcomes J. Demogr. Econ. (IF 0.882) Pub Date : 2021-03-25 Francisca M. Antman, Priti Kalsi, Soohyung Lee
We investigate the impact of male–female conflict over gender norms on marital outcomes. As marriage requires mutual agreement regarding the role of husband and wife, we hypothesize that a person who is less likely to encounter a potential mate with similar gender norms will face a lower chance of marrying. Even if two parties marry despite a difference in gender norms, their marriage may be more vulnerable
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Mortality decline, productivity increase, and positive feedback between schooling and retirement choices J. Demogr. Econ. (IF 0.882) Pub Date : 2021-03-03 Zhipeng Cai, Sau-Him Paul Lau, C. Y. Kelvin Yuen
The twentieth century has seen a phenomenal decline in mortality and an increase in productivity level. These two important events likely affect people's choices of schooling years and retirement age. We first show that in a standard life-cycle model, positive feedback exists between optimal schooling years and retirement age choices. We then evaluate the impact of a mortality or productivity shock
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Urbanization, long-run growth, and the demographic transition J. Demogr. Econ. (IF 0.882) Pub Date : 2021-03-03 Jonathan J. Adams
Advanced economies undergo three transitions during their development: (1) transition from a rural to an urban economy, (2) transition from low-income growth to high-income growth, (3) transition from high fertility and mortality rates to low modern levels. The timings of these transitions are correlated in the historical development of most advanced economies. I consider a nonlinear model of endogenous
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Does the expectation of having to look after parents in the future affect current fertility? J. Demogr. Econ. (IF 0.882) Pub Date : 2021-03-02 Kei Sakata, C. R. McKenzie
This paper argues that the expectation of having to provide care for aging parents in the future may be a major factor contributing to the current low fertility rate in Japan. Using data from the 1998 and 2008 National Family Research of Japan (NFRJ) surveys and a Poisson-logit hurdle model, this paper examines whether the expectation of having to look after parents in the future affects a couple's
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Pareto-improving transition to fully funded pensions under myopia J. Demogr. Econ. (IF 0.882) Pub Date : 2021-03-02 Torben M. Andersen, Joydeep Bhattacharya, Marias H. Gestsson
Under dynamic efficiency, a pay-as-you-go (PAYG) pension scheme helps the current generation of retirees but hurts future generations because they are forced to save via a return-dominated scheme. Abandoning it is deemed welfare-improving but typically not for all generations. But what if agents are present-biased (hence, undersave for retirement) and the “paternalistically motivated forced savings”
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Demography and provisions for retirement: the pension composition, a behavioral approach J. Demogr. Econ. (IF 0.882) Pub Date : 2021-03-01 Bernard M.S. Van Praag, J. Peter Hop
Pensions may be provided for in a modern society by a mix of several methods, namely by voluntary individual savings, mandatory fully-funded occupational pension systems, mandatory social security financed by pay-as-you-go, and old-fashioned hoarding in cash. We call a specific mixture of the four systems a pension composition. We assume that individual workers decide on their own individual savings
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Age culture, school-entry cutoff, and the choices of birth month and school-entry timing in South Korea J. Demogr. Econ. (IF 0.882) Pub Date : 2021-03-01 Taehoon Kim
This study explores how the distinctive Korean age reckoning, the Confucian age culture, and the school-entry-cutoff date affect the decisions of parents on both birth and school-entry timing for their children in Korea. There is a traditional method of age calculation in Korea that all people get one year older on January 1. Korea also has a distinctive age culture influenced by Confucianism. I find
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Son preference and the fertility squeeze in India J. Demogr. Econ. (IF 0.882) Pub Date : 2021-03-01 Anna-Maria Aksan
India's sex ratio at birth (SRB) has become increasingly masculine, coinciding with a declining total fertility rate. Couples often resort to sex-selective abortion or even infanticide to ensure the birth of a son. We use household-level data from all four waves of India's National Family Health Survey (NFHS) to investigate the effect of India's demographic transition on the SRB. Mixed-effects logit
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Those who can't sort, steal: caste, occupational mobility, and rent-seeking in rural India J. Demogr. Econ. (IF 0.882) Pub Date : 2021-03-01 Nicholas Lawson, Dean Spears
Three important features of Indian labor markets enduringly coexist: rent-seeking, occupational immobility, and caste. These facts are puzzling, given theories that predict static, equilibrium social inequality without conflict. Our model explains these facts as an equilibrium outcome. Some people switch caste-associated occupations for an easier source of rents, rather than for productivity. This
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Actuarial deductions for early retirement J. Demogr. Econ. (IF 0.882) Pub Date : 2021-03-01 Markus Knell
This paper studies how the rates of deduction for early retirement have to be determined in pay-as-you-go (PAYG) systems in order to keep their budget stable. The derivation of these deductions requires the use of a multiperiod intertemporal budget constraint that involves assumptions about the retirement behavior of past, present, and future cohorts. In general, it is not possible to calculate budget-neutral
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Can the historical gender gap index deepen our understanding of economic development? J. Demogr. Econ. (IF 0.882) Pub Date : 2021-03-01 Faustine Perrin
Knowledge of the long relationship between gender equality and economic growth is hampered by the lack of information and resources on the various dimensions of gender equality. This paper is a first attempt to assess the size of the gender gap and investigate its relationship with economic growth from a historical perspective. Exploiting a unique census-based dataset of 86 French counties in the mid-nineteenth
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Domestic and international migration intentions in response to environmental stress: A global cross-country analysis J. Demogr. Econ. (IF 0.882) Pub Date : 2021-03-01 Els Bekaert, Ilse Ruyssen, Sara Salomone
In light of increasing environmental stress and its likely implications for migration patterns, we conduct a cross-country individual-level analysis of the impact of self-reported exposure to environmental stress on people's migration intentions and their destination choice. We simultaneously model intentions to migrate domestically and internationally for 90 countries worldwide in 2010. We find that
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Gender inequality in COVID-19 times: evidence from UK prolific participants J. Demogr. Econ. (IF 0.882) Pub Date : 2021-03-01 Sonia Oreffice, Climent Quintana-Domeque
We investigate gender differences across multiple dimensions after 3 months of the first UK lockdown of March 2020, using an online sample of approximately 1,500 Prolific respondents’ residents in the UK. We find that women's mental health was worse than men along the four metrics we collected data on, that women were more concerned about getting and spreading the virus, and that women perceived the
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The impact of natural disasters on migration: findings from Vietnam J. Demogr. Econ. (IF 0.882) Pub Date : 2021-03-01 Trong-Anh Trinh, Simon Feeny, Alberto Posso
Increasingly, studies are examining whether the incidence of natural disasters influences household migration. This paper examines whether the severity of natural disasters is important for migration decisions in Vietnam, rather than just examining their occurrence. Data for a sample of 1,003 farm households from the Vietnam Household Living Standard Survey are examined for the period 2006–2008. A
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International migration and the gender wage gap J. Demogr. Econ. (IF 0.882) Pub Date : 2021-03-01 Raymundo M. Campos-Vazquez, Jaime Lara
This article analyzes the effect of international migration on the wage gap between women and men who remain in Mexico. We use historical distance to the U.S. border over early twentieth-century railroad networks as an exogenous factor causing changes in the relative supply of men and women, due to predominately male migration. A 10% decrease in the relative labor supply of men tends to increase the
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A meta-analysis of the literature on climate change and migration J. Demogr. Econ. (IF 0.882) Pub Date : 2021-03-01 Michel Beine, Lionel Jeusette
Recent surveys of the literature on climate change and migration emphasize the important diversity of outcomes and approaches of the empirical studies. In this paper, we conduct a meta-analysis in order to investigate the role of the methodological choices of these empirical studies in finding some particular results concerning the role of climatic factors as drivers of human mobility. We code 51 papers
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A new method for identifying the role of marital preferences at shaping marriage patterns J. Demogr. Econ. (IF 0.882) Pub Date : 2021-03-01 Anna Naszodi, Francisco Mendonca
We develop a method which assumes that marital preferences are characterized either by the scalar-valued measure proposed by Liu and Lu, or by the matrix-valued generalized Liu–Lu measure. The new method transforms an observed contingency table into a counterfactual table while preserving its (generalized) Liu–Lu value. After exploring some analytical properties of the new method, we illustrate its
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The parental home as labor market insurance for young Greeks during the Great Recession J. Demogr. Econ. (IF 0.882) Pub Date : 2021-03-01 Rebekka Christopoulou, Maria Pantalidou
Labor market conditions in Greece have severely deteriorated during the crisis, affecting youths the most. Using the Greek crisis as a case-study, this paper examines the role of the family as a social safety net for its young members. Specifically, we test the relationship between youth labor outcomes and parental co-residence, whether this relationship has become stronger during the crisis, and the
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Segregation, fertility, and son preference: the case of the Roma in Serbia J. Demogr. Econ. (IF 0.882) Pub Date : 2021-03-01 Marianna Battaglia, Bastien Chabé-Ferret, Lara Lebedinski
We study the link between residential segregation and fertility for the socially excluded and marginalized Roma ethnic minority. Using original survey data we collected in Serbia, we investigate whether fertility differs between ethnically homogeneous and mixed neighborhoods. Our results show that Roma in less-segregated areas tend to have significantly fewer children (around 0.8). Most of the difference
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Using intentions to predict fertility J. Demogr. Econ. (IF 0.882) Pub Date : 2021-03-01 Johannes Norling
On average, childless women observed by the Panel Study of Income Dynamics report that they intend to have more children than they actually have. A collection of intentions that record only whether respondents intend to have another child can more accurately predict the number of children they have. Errors in the formation of intentions are not required to explain this finding. Rather, if intentions
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Migration-induced transfers of norms: the case of female political empowerment J. Demogr. Econ. (IF 0.882) Pub Date : 2020-11-26 Elisabetta Lodigiani, Sara Salomone
This paper empirically investigates the effect of transnational migrants on gender equality in the country of origin measured by the share of women enrolled in the lower chamber of National Parliaments. We test for a “migration-induced transfer of norm” using panel data from 1970 to 2010 in 10-year intervals. Total international migration has a positive and significant effect on female political empowerment
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Self-employment as a stepping stone to better labor market matching: a comparison between immigrants and natives J. Demogr. Econ. (IF 0.882) Pub Date : 2020-11-26 Magdalena Ulceluse
The paper investigates the relation between overeducation and self-employment, in a comparative analysis between immigrants and natives. Using the EU Labour Force Survey for the year 2012 and controlling for a list of demographic characteristics and general characteristics of 30 destination countries, it finds that the likelihood of being overeducated decreases for self-employed immigrants, with inconclusive
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Fertility, immigration, and lifetime wages under imperfect labor substitution J. Demogr. Econ. (IF 0.882) Pub Date : 2020-11-26 Ross Guest, Nick Parr
This paper provides new insights into the effect of birth cohort size on cohort lifetime wages and its sensitivity to the future trajectories of immigration and fertility. The main innovation is to relax the typical assumption of perfect substitution of labor by age. The effect of imperfect substitution of labor by age is to qualify the standard result that smaller birth cohorts are likely to enjoy
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Sex and the mission: the conflicting effects of early Christian missions on HIV in sub-Saharan Africa J. Demogr. Econ. (IF 0.882) Pub Date : 2020-09-01 Julia Cagé, Valeria Rueda
This article investigates the long-term impact of historical missionary activity on HIV in sub-Saharan Africa. On the one hand, missionaries were the first to invest in modern medicine in the region. On the other hand, Christianity influenced sexual beliefs and behaviors that affect the risk of contagion. We build a new geocoded dataset locating Protestant and Catholic missions in the early 20th century
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Prussia disaggregated: the demography of its universe of localities in 1871 J. Demogr. Econ. (IF 0.882) Pub Date : 2020-09-01 Sascha O. Becker, Francesco Cinnirella
We provide, for the first time, a detailed and comprehensive overview of the demography of more than 50,000 towns, villages, and manors in 1871 Prussia. We study religion, literacy, fertility, and group segregation by location type (town, village, and manor). We find that Jews live predominantly in towns. Villages and manors are substantially segregated by denomination, whereas towns are less segregated
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The effects of teenage childbearing on education, physical health, and mental distress: evidence from Mexico J. Demogr. Econ. (IF 0.882) Pub Date : 2020-05-07 Pinar Mine Gunes, Magda Tsaneva
This paper estimates the effects of teenage childbearing on education, working, physical and mental health, and physical activity of young girls in Mexico using two waves of the nationally representative Mexican Family Life Survey. We employ a propensity score matching model that accounts for a rich set of baseline covariates that predict teenage childbearing to attempt to reduce the bias due to confounding
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Macroeconomic and distributional effects of demographic change in an open economy—the case of Belgium J. Demogr. Econ. (IF 0.882) Pub Date : 2020-02-07 Willem Devriendt, Freddy Heylen
We construct and parameterize an overlapping generations model for an open economy with individuals who differ in innate ability. Key endogenous variables are hours worked, investment in human and physical capital, and per capita growth. The model replicates important data in Belgium since 1960 remarkably well. Simulating it, we observe that behavioral adjustments by households and firms contribute
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The South's demographic transition and international capital flows in a financially integrated world economy J. Demogr. Econ. (IF 0.882) Pub Date : 2020-02-07 Frédéric Gannon, Gilles Le Garrec, Vincent Touzé
In the coming decades, the countries of the South will be facing the aging of the population faster than the countries of the North. This will have long-term economic consequences for the South but also for the North through the changing of international capital flows. To study the latter, we build a simple two-region two-period OLG model, assuming fully integrated financial markets. This allows us
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Living longer in high longevity risk J. Demogr. Econ. (IF 0.882) Pub Date : 2020-02-07 Rachel Wingenbach, Jong-Min Kim, Hojin Jung
There is considerable uncertainty regarding changes in future mortality rates. This article investigates the impact of such longevity risk on discounted government annuity benefits for retirees. It is critical to forecast more accurate future mortality rates to improve our estimation of an expected annuity payout. Thus, we utilize the Lee–Carter model, which is well-known as a parsimonious dynamic
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