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PROGRESSIVE TAXATION AND MACROECONOMICS (IN)STABILITY UNDER HOUSEHOLD HETEROGENEITY Macroeconomic Dynamics (IF 0.976) Pub Date : 2021-03-19 Shu-Hua Chen
It has been shown that progressive income taxation may stabilize an otherwise standard representative-agent real business cycle model with an indeterminate steady state against aggregate fluctuations caused by agents’ animal spirits. By contrast, within an identical model that allows for sustained economic growth, progressive taxation could lead to equilibrium indeterminacy and sunspot-driven fluctuations
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GENETIC, CULTURAL, AND HISTORICAL DETERMINANTS OF KNOWLEDGE CREATION Macroeconomic Dynamics (IF 0.976) Pub Date : 2021-03-16 Erkan Gören
Knowledge creation has been a pivotal ingredient of endogenous growth theory to understand differences in standards of living across countries. Yet, the identification of key drivers explaining cross-country differences in knowledge creation still remains a topic of central interest in this research field. In this paper, I provide a framework to hypothesize and empirically test the persistent effects
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HOUSING WEALTH REALLOCATION BETWEEN SUBPRIME AND PRIME BORROWERS DURING RECESSIONS Macroeconomic Dynamics (IF 0.976) Pub Date : 2021-03-01 Ayse Sapci, Nam T. Vu
The Survey of Consumer Finances (SCF) indicates that, unlike subprime borrowers, prime borrowers are more likely to own investment homes during recessions than during recoveries. Drawing on this empirical fact, we present and estimate a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model that distinguishes between borrowers through their credit access. We find that the relative ease of credit access
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EQUILIBRIUM INDETERMINACY, ENDOGENOUS ENTRY AND EXIT, AND INCREASING RETURNS TO SPECIALIZATION Macroeconomic Dynamics (IF 0.976) Pub Date : 2021-02-26 Shu-Hua Chen, Jang-Ting Guo
This paper systematically examines the interrelations between equilibrium indeterminacy, endogenous entry and exit of intermediate input firms, and increasing returns to specialization within two versions of a parsimonious one-sector monopolistically competitive RBC model. The technology for producing an intermediate good is postulated to display internal increasing returns to scale in our benchmark
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SOCIAL SECURITY AND LONGEVITY RISK: THE CASE OF RISKY BEQUEST INCOME Macroeconomic Dynamics (IF 0.976) Pub Date : 2021-02-26 Erin N. Cottle Hunt, Frank N. Caliendo
This paper quantifies the welfare gains from Social Security when individuals face uninsurable longevity risk. While past researchers have studied this basic question, we do so from a unique perspective. In contrast to traditional macroeconomic models that abstract from specific linkages between parents and children, in our model, children are born to specific parents whose longevity is uncertain.
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AUTOMATION, PARTIAL AND FULL Macroeconomic Dynamics (IF 0.976) Pub Date : 2021-02-15 Jakub Growiec
When some steps of a complex, multi-step task are automated, the demand for human work in the remaining complementary sub-tasks goes up. In contrast, when the task is fully automated, the demand for human work declines. Upon aggregation to the macroeconomic scale, partial automatability of complex tasks creates a bottleneck of development, where further growth is constrained by the scarcity of essential
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FISCAL POLICY CHANGES AND LABOR MARKET DYNAMICS IN JAPAN’S LOST DECADE Macroeconomic Dynamics (IF 0.976) Pub Date : 2021-02-15 Julen Esteban-Pretel, Xiangcai Meng, Ryuichi Tanaka
Japan’s so-called Lost Decade of the 1990s presents a unique case study of an economy with a recent severe and prolonged recession, with large changes in the labor market and fiscal policy as the main policy available to the government. Japanese unemployment rate surged from 2.1% in 1991 to 5.4% in 2002. Meanwhile, the Japanese economy experienced a rise in government expenditures, while taxes remained
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GLOBAL BANK RISK AND MONETARY POLICY IN AN EMERGING ECONOMY Macroeconomic Dynamics (IF 0.976) Pub Date : 2021-01-25 Paul Luk
The global financial crisis was characterized by heightened financial risk in the USA, which spread to the rest of the world, including emerging economies. This paper constructs a core–periphery model with a global banking network and financial frictions. Due to a common-lender effect, when global banks lend to an emerging economy, heightened financial risk in the center depresses cross-border lending
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RAMSEY OPTIMAL POLICY IN THE NEW-KEYNESIAN MODEL WITH PUBLIC DEBT Macroeconomic Dynamics (IF 0.976) Pub Date : 2021-01-25 Jean-Bernard Chatelain, Kirsten Ralf
In the discrete-time new-Keynesian model with public debt, Ramsey optimal policy eliminates the indeterminacy of simple-rules multiple equilibria between the fiscal theory of the price level versus new-Keynesian versus an unpleasant equilibrium. If public debt volatility is taken into account into the loss function, the interest rate responds to public debt besides inflation and output gap. Else, the
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TAX RULES TO PREVENT EXPECTATIONS-DRIVEN LIQUIDITY TRAPS Macroeconomic Dynamics (IF 0.976) Pub Date : 2021-01-25 Yoichiro Tamanyu
Multiple equilibria arise in standard New Keynesian models when the nominal interest rate is set according to the Taylor rule and constrained by a zero lower bound (ZLB). One of these equilibria is deflationary and referred to as an expectations-driven liquidity trap (ELT) as it arises because of the de-anchoring of inflation expectations. This study demonstrates that a simple tax rule responding to
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PHYSICAL CAPITAL, HUMAN CAPITAL, AND THE HEALTH EFFECTS OF POLLUTION IN AN OLG MODEL Macroeconomic Dynamics (IF 0.976) Pub Date : 2021-01-18 Sichao Wei, David Aadland
In a standard overlapping generations model, we show how the health effects of pollution impact the balanced-growth path (BGP) and the transition dynamics of the economy. The key driver is the differential between physical and human capital accumulation. The differential occurs because pollution alters the incentives to save and to invest in education via reductions in longevity and alters the effectiveness
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THE DIFFUSION OF ECONOMIC ACTIVITY ACROSS SPACE: A NEW APPROACH Macroeconomic Dynamics (IF 0.976) Pub Date : 2021-01-12 Carmen Camacho, Agustín Pérez-Barahona
Dynamic spatial theory has been a fruitful approach to understanding economic phenomena involving time and space. However, several central questions still remain unresolved in this field. The identification of the social optimal allocation of economic activity across time and space is particularly problematic, not been ensured yet in economic growth. Developing a monotone method, we study the optimal
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A SUGGESTION FOR A DYNAMIC MULTIFACTOR MODEL (DMFM) Macroeconomic Dynamics (IF 0.976) Pub Date : 2021-01-11 Heather D. Gibson, Stephen G. Hall, George S. Tavlas
We provide a new way of deriving a number of dynamic unobserved factors from a set of variables. We show how standard principal components may be expressed in state space form and estimated using the Kalman filter. To illustrate our procedure, we perform two exercises. First, we use it to estimate a measure of the current account imbalances among northern and southern euro area countries that developed
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“TIME-RELEASE” OUTPUT RESPONSES TO PUBLIC EDUCATION EXPENDITURES Macroeconomic Dynamics (IF 0.976) Pub Date : 2021-01-11 Bebonchu Atems, William Blankenau
This paper argues that output can respond to public education spending in a delayed and persistent manner through human capital accumulation. We refer to this as a “time-release” response, reflecting that the output response grows as students exposed to increased expenditures sequentially enter the labor market. We first develop and calibrate a stochastic overlapping generations model to formalize
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INFLATION TARGETING UNDER INFLATION UNCERTAINTY—MULTI-ECONOMY EVIDENCE FROM A STOCHASTIC VOLATILITY MODEL Macroeconomic Dynamics (IF 0.976) Pub Date : 2020-12-29 Matthias Hartmann, Helmut Herwartz, Maren Ulm
One of the most important advantages of an inflation target is that it helps to reduce uncertainty about future inflation. However, this confidence may be undermined if actual inflation continuously deviates from the target level. We examine how inflation uncertainty relates to the presence of an inflation target and deviations of inflation from the targeted level. Inflation uncertainty is quantified
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A NOTE ON POPULATION AGING AND EFFECTIVENESS OF FISCAL POLICY Macroeconomic Dynamics (IF 0.976) Pub Date : 2020-12-23 Hiroaki Miyamoto, Naoyuki Yoshino
This paper examines how population aging affects the output effect of a government spending shock by using a panel data of OECD countries. The government spending shock is identified as a forecast error of government spending, and its output effect is estimated by using the local projection method. We find that population aging affects the output effect of the government spending shock. While in non-aging
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JOB DURATION AND HISTORY-DEPENDENT UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE Macroeconomic Dynamics (IF 0.976) Pub Date : 2020-12-17 Torben M. Andersen, Christian Ellermann-Aarslev
Unemployment insurance schemes typically include eligibility conditions comprising the employment history prior to becoming unemployed, an aspect largely neglected in the literature. We develop an analytically tractable matching model including such contingencies. Unemployed determine reservation durations for jobs to be acceptable, and stronger employment histories increase reservation durations.
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GROWTH AND CONVERGENCE THROUGH TECHNOLOGICAL INTERDEPENDENCE Macroeconomic Dynamics (IF 0.976) Pub Date : 2020-12-09 Wei Jin, Yixiao Zhou
This paper presents a multi-country version of the Ramsey growth model with cross-country technological interdependence. The results rationalize several stylized facts about growth and convergence. First, individual countries tend to converge toward country-specific balanced growth paths rather than steady-state equilibria. Second, an economy that accounts for a smaller share of the world technology
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IMMIGRATION, ENDOGENOUS SKILL BIAS OF TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGE, AND WELFARE ANALYSIS Macroeconomic Dynamics (IF 0.976) Pub Date : 2020-12-01 Gonca Senel
This paper investigates the long-run effects of immigration on wages and welfare in a model with endogenous technology choice (ETC) where firms are allowed to choose their optimal skill intensity from a menu of available technologies. I embed the ETC framework into the Auerbach and Kotlikoff model (1987) that features a large set of overlapping generations, a rich collection of population dynamics
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THE ROLE OF LABOR MARKET FRICTIONS IN STRUCTURAL TRANSFORMATION Macroeconomic Dynamics (IF 0.976) Pub Date : 2020-11-26 Khalid ElFayoumi
Large productivity gaps across sectors persist and the process of structural transformation is stagnant in many developing economies. This wedge between observed and optimal labor allocations reflects the presence of institutional and market frictions, which impose costs on the optimal reallocation of labor from low- to high-productivity sectors. Using a panel of cross-country sector-level data, I
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ANTICIPATED FUTURE CONSUMPTION IN AN ENDOGENOUS GROWTH MODEL Macroeconomic Dynamics (IF 0.976) Pub Date : 2020-11-11 Manuel A. Gómez, Goncalo Monteiro
We devise an endogenous growth model in which agents’ utility depends not only on current consumption but also on the pleasure of anticipated future consumption. We consider the case in which agents derive satisfaction from their own anticipatory feelings—inward-looking or internal anticipation—and the case in which agents derive utility from anticipation of other people’s future consumption—outward-looking
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ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE AND HUMAN JOBS Macroeconomic Dynamics (IF 0.976) Pub Date : 2020-11-03 Chia-Hui Lu
The development of artificial intelligence (AI) does influence human jobs but not necessarily in a negative way. Although labor force participation rates and firms’ job vacancies for human labor decline, the unemployment rate may be lower than that in an economy without AI. In an economy with heterogeneously skilled workers, the invention of AI usually has a negative effect on the skilled labor market
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POPULATION AGING AND INVENTIVE ACTIVITY Macroeconomic Dynamics (IF 0.976) Pub Date : 2020-10-29 Andreas Irmen, Anastasia Litina
This research empirically establishes and interprets the hypothesis that the relationship between population aging and inventive activity is hump-shaped. We estimate a reduced form, hump-shaped relationship in a panel of 33 OECD countries over the period 1960–2012, as well as in a panel of 248 NUTS 2 regions in Europe over the period 2001–2012. The increasing part of the hump may be associated with
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ON PRICE DYNAMICS WITH SEARCH AND BARGAINING IN THE PRODUCT MARKET Macroeconomic Dynamics (IF 0.976) Pub Date : 2020-10-19 Mirko Abbritti, Tommaso Trani
We introduce business-to-business (B2B) relationships into an otherwise standard model to revisit two aspects of price dynamics in a unified analysis. On one side, the pass-through of cost shocks to prices is empirically incomplete. On the other side, the literature contains conjectures that long-term relationships may reduce the allocative role of price changes. After a partial equilibrium analysis
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A NOTE ON THE ANNUITY ROLE OF ESTATE TAX Macroeconomic Dynamics (IF 0.976) Pub Date : 2020-10-14 Monisankar Bishnu, Cagri Kumru
The previous conclusion that a uniform lump-sum estate tax could implicitly provide annuity income was reached by ignoring the inheritance that agents receive. However, when the agents leave a bequest, they should also receive an inheritance from their parents. Thus, we make the inheritance received—bequests left cycle complete and fully endogenous. Interestingly, the differential timing and sizes
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INCOME DISTRIBUTION BY AGE GROUP AND PRODUCTIVE BUBBLES Macroeconomic Dynamics (IF 0.976) Pub Date : 2020-10-13 Xavier Raurich, Thomas Seegmuller
The aim of this paper is to study the role of the distribution of income by age group on the existence of speculative bubbles. A crucial question is whether this distribution may promote a bubble associated to a larger level of capital, that is a productive bubble. We address these issues in an overlapping generations model where agents live three periods and productive investment done in the first
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MISALLOCATION OF RESOURCES, TOTAL FACTOR PRODUCTIVITY, AND THE CLEANSING HYPOTHESIS Macroeconomic Dynamics (IF 0.976) Pub Date : 2020-10-02 George Vachadze
Imperfections in the credit market can hamper the flow of factors from less productive to more productive firms and result in a lower aggregate total factor productivity (TFP). Depth of such misallocation will depend on per capita income, the level of imperfections in the credit market, and the distribution of entrepreneurial productivity. Under some parameter configurations, we find that per capita
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MONETARY POLICY AND RESERVE REQUIREMENTS IN A SMALL OPEN ECONOMY Macroeconomic Dynamics (IF 0.976) Pub Date : 2020-09-30 Jose Angelo Divino, Carlos Haraguchi
This paper investigates how a combination of monetary and macroprudential policies might affect the dynamics of a small open economy (SOE) with financial frictions under alternative discretionary shocks. Discretionary shocks in productivity and domestic and foreign monetary policies identify the roles of alternative interest rate and reserve requirement rules to stabilize the economy. The model is
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MONEY AND CREDIT REMIX Macroeconomic Dynamics (IF 0.976) Pub Date : 2020-09-28 Luis Araujo, Leo Ferraris
Money and credit are ubiquitous in actual economies, but there is an active theoretical debate on whether they are both necessary if they can both be used in all transactions. Recently, Gu et al. (2016) have shown that money and credit cannot be simultaneously essential and debt limits do not matter for the determination of real allocations in a class of monetary economies. In this paper, we revisit
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CONVERGENCE AND DIVERGENCE: A NEW APPROACH, NEW DATA, AND NEW RESULTS Macroeconomic Dynamics (IF 0.976) Pub Date : 2020-09-24 Michele Battisti, Gianfranco di Vaio, Joseph Zeira
Recently, Penn World Tables include new data that enable calculation of total factor productivity in addition to output for a large set of countries. We use these new data to examine convergence and divergence across countries by applying a new approach, which differentiates between the dynamics of output and of productivity. Our empirical results lead to two main new contributions to the literature
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A NOTE ON THE SLOPE OF THE AGGREGATE DEMAND CURVE AT THE ZERO LOWER BOUND Macroeconomic Dynamics (IF 0.976) Pub Date : 2020-09-24 Yangyang Ji, Wei Xiao
This paper analyzes a regime-switching New Keynesian model to understand what happens to the aggregate economy when the nominal interest rate hits the zero lower bound (ZLB). Contrary to the literature, our model predicts that the aggregate demand curve is not always upward sloping when the ZLB binds. Instead, it depends on expectations. If the expected duration of the ZLB is short but consistent with
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INFLATION AND INEQUALITY IN A GROWING ECONOMY WITH CASH AND CREDIT GOODS Macroeconomic Dynamics (IF 0.976) Pub Date : 2020-09-07 Juin-Jen Chang, Hsieh-Yu Lin, David W. Savitski, Hsueh-Fang Tsai
We develop a dynamic general equilibrium growth model, where households purchase final goods on cash or credit and have different capital and money endowments, to investigate whether inflation affects trends in income and consumption inequality. We show that, under a strong substitutability between cash and credit goods, inflation has a negative relationship with income inequality, but a U-shaped relationship
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UNEQUAL EXCHANGE RATE PASS-THROUGH ACROSS INCOME GROUPS Macroeconomic Dynamics (IF 0.976) Pub Date : 2020-09-07