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Female Board Representation and Corporate Performance: A Review and New Estimates for Australia1 Economic Record (IF 1.034) Pub Date : 2024-03-16 Nicholas Bayly, Robert Breunig, Chris Wokker
Despite a conventional wisdom that female board members positively impact firm performance, a thorough examination of the research to date reveals no consensus that female board members have either a positive or negative effect on firm financial performance. We build the largest dataset of Australian board appointments assembled to date. We use our data to demonstrate how difficult it is to replicate
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Hayek: A Life, 1899–1950, by BruceCaldwell and HansjörgKlausinger (University of Chicago Press, Chicago, 2022), pp. 840. Economic Record (IF 1.034) Pub Date : 2024-03-08 Selwyn Cornish
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Economic Aspects of Australian Federation: Trade Restrictiveness and Welfare Effects in the Colonies and the Commonwealth, 1900–3* Economic Record (IF 1.034) Pub Date : 2024-02-26 Brian D. Varian, Luke H. Grayson
Australian Federation in 1901 entailed the formation of a customs union among its formerly tariff-autonomous colonies. Although the elimination of tariff barriers to intercolonial/interstate trade would have been welfare-enhancing, Australia's common external tariff was set considerably higher than the tariffs on external goods imported by the pre-Federation colonies, implying a welfare reduction.
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Impacts of Monetary Policy Shocks on Inflation and Output in New Zealand* Economic Record (IF 1.034) Pub Date : 2024-02-26 Robert Kirkby, Huong Ngoc Vu
We identify monetary policy shocks in New Zealand as 1‐day changes in the whole yield curve around monetary policy announcements. The impacts of these shocks on inflation and output are estimated using functional local projections. We find that the effects of monetary policy shocks are standard in the short run but might be different in the long run. Monetary policy shocks in a small open economy have
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Can we Use High-Frequency Data to Better Understand the Effects of Monetary Policy and its Communication? Yes and No!* Economic Record (IF 1.034) Pub Date : 2024-02-25 Jonathan Hambur, Qazi Haque
We examine the effects of three facets of monetary policy in Australia using high-frequency yield changes around the Reserve Bank of Australia's announcements: current policy, signalling/forward guidance and changes in premia. Shocks to current policy have similar effects to those identified using conventional approaches, but the effects of signalling and premia shocks are imprecisely estimated. Still
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Upholding Indigenous Economic Relationships: Nehiyawak Narratives, by Shalene WuttuneeJobin (University of Chicago Press, Chicago, 2022), pp. 272. Economic Record (IF 1.034) Pub Date : 2024-02-21 Siobhan McDonnell
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When Does the Gender Gap in Financial Literacy Begin?* Economic Record (IF 1.034) Pub Date : 2024-02-13 Alison Preston, Robert E. Wright
Research to date has failed to generate a comprehensive understanding of the source of the gender gap in financial literacy in adulthood. Using microdata from the Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) Survey and an analysis covering four age groups (15–19, 20–24, 25–29 and 30–34), this paper suggests that the gender gap starts young and well before individuals enter adulthood.
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Zero Interest Policy & the New Abnormal: A Critique, by Michael Beenstock (Oxford University Press, Oxford, UK, 2022) Economic Record (IF 1.034) Pub Date : 2024-02-07 James Morley
In his book, Michael Beenstock labels the recent responses to macroeconomic crises that involve setting policy interest rates close to zero and running large budget deficits as ‘the New Abnormal’, with Japan providing an early example of this approach in the 1990s, and many OECD economies following suit during the global financial crisis in 2008 and with the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020.
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Nowcasting with Google Trends Economic Record (IF 1.034) Pub Date : 2024-01-04 Hal Varian
In 2011, I delivered a keynote address titled ‘Predicting the Present with Google Trends’ at the annual meeting of the Australian Conference of Economists. Working with my colleague Hyunyoung Choi, that talk turned into a paper that was subsequently published in the June 2012 proceedings of this journal. The paper received over 3000 citations in Google Scholar. This enthusiastic reception encouraged
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Free and Equal: What Would a Fair Society Look Like? by Daniel Chandler (Allen Lane, London, 2023), pp. v + 403 Economic Record (IF 1.034) Pub Date : 2023-11-23 Mark Fabian
Conflict of interest The author declares no conflict of interest.
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International Differences in Profitability* Economic Record (IF 1.034) Pub Date : 2023-10-10 Harry Bloch, Yixiao Zhou
We examine the global distribution of company profitability over the 30 years from 1989 to 2018 focusing on the international dimension. We find the international component of profitability differences first declines and then rises. Regression analysis of time-series data shows that transitory shocks to international profitability differences mostly dissipate over a few years, although there is evidence
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Uncovering Urban Advantages: Evidence from Australian Firm-Level Data * Economic Record (IF 1.034) Pub Date : 2023-08-22 Antonio Andrés Bellofatto, Begoña Domínguez, Elyse C. Dwyer
This paper quantifies the productivity advantages of urban firms in Australia. Following Combes et al. (Econometrica 2012, 80, 2543), we decompose the source of urban advantages into agglomeration and selection effects using the most exhaustive data source on Australian businesses: the Business Longitudinal Analysis Data Environment (BLADE). We find that urban advantages increase the productivity of
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Broadband Internet and Cognitive Functioning* Economic Record (IF 1.034) Pub Date : 2023-08-15 Klaus Ackermann, Sefa Awaworyi Churchill, Russell Smyth
We empirically examine the impact of high-speed internet access on cognitive functioning using data from the Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia survey and crystallised and fluid intelligence measures. Leveraging differences in the National Broadband Network rollout across Australia, we find that high-speed internet access causes a decline in crystallised intelligence and that the effects
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Estimating the Effects of Monetary Policy in Australia Using Sign-restricted Structural Vector Autoregressions* Economic Record (IF 1.034) Pub Date : 2023-08-02 Matthew Read
I estimate the effects of Australian monetary policy using a structural vector autoregression identified using a variety of sign restrictions and a prior-robust approach to Bayesian inference. Some identifying restrictions are not particularly informative. However, combining the restrictions allows us to draw useful inferences. The estimates suggest that an increase in the cash rate lowers output and
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Basic Reading and Mathematics Skills and the Labour Market Outcomes of Young People: Evidence from PISA and Linked Administrative Data* Economic Record (IF 1.034) Pub Date : 2023-08-01 Lisa Meehan, Gail Pacheco, Thomas Schober
This paper uses Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA) data linked to administrative data to track the educational and labour market outcomes of young people. Students with lower skills have lower rates of participation in further education. While low-skilled men out-earn their higher-skilled counterparts when they are very young, their earnings are overtaken by those with higher skills
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Measuring Local Economic Activity Using Pedestrian Count Data* Economic Record (IF 1.034) Pub Date : 2023-07-27 Yonatan Navon, Ashton de Silva
Measures of timely local economic activity are elusive. In this study, we explore the extent to which the volume of pedestrians in a central business district may be associated with its economic activity. Both logically and theoretically there is a strong rationale to expect such a relationship. We find that this is supported empirically also. We also briefly consider the extent to which this observed
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Stamp Duty Reform and Home Ownership* Economic Record (IF 1.034) Pub Date : 2023-07-26 Michael Warlters
The NSW Government's 2020 proposal to replace stamp duty on all properties with an annual tax based on unimproved land values is estimated to increase home ownership by 6.6%, through changes in purchaser holding periods, a shift of tax burden from investors to owner-occupiers and a relaxed deposit constraint. The model of home ownership highlights the importance of purchasers' holding periods, with
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Retail Investor Trading Intentions: New Evidence from Australia* Economic Record (IF 1.034) Pub Date : 2023-06-29 Sarantis Tsiaplias, Qi Zeng, Guay C. Lim
Using a quarterly survey of 23,000 Australian retail equity investors, we study the relationship between beliefs about risk and returns and stock market intentions regarding holding, buying and selling. We provide evidence that investor intentions regarding buying or selling are primarily characterised by risk and return expectations, but sensitivity to their beliefs about risk and returns is greater
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Urban Residential Water Demand and Household Size: A Robust Meta-Regression Analysis* Economic Record (IF 1.034) Pub Date : 2023-06-20 Alemken Jegnie, James Fogarty, Sayed Iftekhar
We present the results of a meta-analysis of household-size water demand elasticity. The analysis is based on 75 primary studies. As there is evidence of publication bias, publication bias–corrected estimates are reported. For indoor water use, we find that in countries with gross domestic product (GDP) per capita below $10,000, the household-size elasticity is approximately 0.4–0.5, and in countries
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The Steppingstone Effect of Casual Employment in Australia: A Re-Examination* Economic Record (IF 1.034) Pub Date : 2023-05-26 Lixin Cai
This study re-examines the steppingstone effect of casual employment using data covering a much longer period than that used in Buddelmeyer and Wooden (Industrial Relations, 50(1), 109–30, 2011). For males the steppingstone effect found in this study is similar to that in Buddelmeyer and Wooden (Industrial Relations, 50(1), 109–30, 2011). Whereas Buddelmeyer and Wooden (Industrial Relations, 50(1)
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Consuming Contests: The Effect of Outcome Uncertainty on Spectator Attendance in the Australian Football League* Economic Record (IF 1.034) Pub Date : 2023-05-08 Patrick J. Ferguson, Karim R. Lakhani
Contests that non-contestants consume for entertainment are a fixture of economic, cultural and political life. We exploit injury-induced changes to teams' line-ups in a professional sports setting to examine whether individuals prefer to consume contests that have more uncertain outcomes. Studying data from the Australian Football League, we use an instrumental variables design to show that a one
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The Yield and Market Function Effects of the Reserve Bank of Australia's Bond Purchases* Economic Record (IF 1.034) Pub Date : 2023-05-01 Richard Finlay, Dmitry Titkov, Michelle Xiang
We examine the effect on government bond yields of three policy measures by the Reserve Bank of Australia implemented following the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. We also assess their impact on bond market functioning. The measures were purchases to support government bond market function over early 2020, the yield target on 3-year Australian government bonds, and the bond purchase programme to lower
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Age of Starting School, Academic Performance, and the Impact of Non-Compliance: An Experiment within an Experiment, Evidence from Australia* Economic Record (IF 1.034) Pub Date : 2023-03-06 Tony Beatton, Michael P. Kidd, Anthony Niu, Francis Vella
This paper estimates the difference in academic performance of the oldest (treated) and youngest (control) students in a given grade. We employ Queensland Department of Education school administration panel data for the population of 2008–2016 state school students. Academic performance is measured using standardised test scores (National Assessments Program in Numeracy and Literacy) and teacher-assessed
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Lifecycle Earnings Risk and Insurance: New Evidence from Australia* Economic Record (IF 1.034) Pub Date : 2023-03-03 Darapheak Tin, Chung Tran
This paper studies the nature of earnings dynamics in Australia, using the Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) Survey 2001–2020. Our results indicate that the distribution of earnings shocks displays negative skewness and excess kurtosis, deviating from the conventional linearity and normality assumptions. Wage changes are strongly associated with earnings changes and account
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On Market-Friendly Central Bankers* Economic Record (IF 1.034) Pub Date : 2023-02-23 Prasanna Gai, Sherry X. Wu
We study the two-way interaction between central banks and financial markets using a beauty contest framework. The analysis identifies when asset prices reveal useful information about fundamentals and when they reflect back the central bank's pronouncements. In equilibrium, the central bank is overly dependent on financial market signals and the information value of asset prices is diminished. Our
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Towards Better Banking Crisis Prediction: Could an Automatic Variable Selection Process Improve the Performance?* Economic Record (IF 1.034) Pub Date : 2023-02-16 Xianglong Liu
This study proposes using the Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) method with cross-validation to automate the variable selection process of the conventional multivariate logit early warning system (EWS), the purpose being to improve the prediction of systemic banking crises. Using a dataset covering 23 OECD countries with quarterly data from 1970Q1 to 2018Q3, model performance
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Gender Differences in the Relationship Between Labour Market Outcomes and Well-being* Economic Record (IF 1.034) Pub Date : 2023-02-06 Nicholas Biddle, Maria Jahromi
The COVID-19 pandemic has had widespread impacts on the labour market and on individuals' well-being. This paper examines gender differences in the relationship between labour market outcomes and well-being over the pandemic. We draw on longitudinal data from the ANUpoll survey that has been conducted before COVID-19 and at several points throughout the pandemic. We find higher levels of well-being
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Crime, Weather and Climate Change in Australia* Economic Record (IF 1.034) Pub Date : 2023-01-30 Sefa Awaworyi Churchill, Russell Smyth, Trong-Anh Trinh
We estimate the effect of temperature on monthly crime using a panel dataset that matches weather with crime rates for over 3,000 postcodes in Australia over the period 2001–2019. We find that a standard deviation increase in average temperature is associated with a 0.008–0.011 standard deviation increase in the crime rate, depending on the specification. This translates to over 72,000 additional crimes
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Monitoring Financial Conditions and Downside Risk to Economic Activity in Australia* Economic Record (IF 1.034) Pub Date : 2023-01-20 Luke Hartigan, Michelle Wright
We develop a new financial conditions index for Australia and use it to apply the growth-at-risk framework to the Australian economy. The index correlates closely with previous episodes of financial instability and allows us to estimate how important current financial conditions are in explaining future downside risk to key macroeconomic variables. As such, it provides a way to quantify the economic
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A Traditional Nominal Wage Phillips Curve: Theory and Evidence Economic Record (IF 1.034) Pub Date : 2023-01-06 Malikane Christopher
By combining simple contracting schemes with firms' optimisation, we provide theoretical underpinnings to the traditional nominal wage Phillips curve. The parameters of our Phillips curve have a structural interpretation. We extend the model to include the effect of the labour share, a factor that is absent in the new Keynesian model. Empirically we find that the unemployment parameter of the traditional
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Gender, Financial Literacy and Pension Savings* Economic Record (IF 1.034) Pub Date : 2022-12-12 Alison Preston, Robert E. Wright
The relationship between the gender gap in financial literacy and pension savings is examined in this paper. In Australia, individuals have considerable discretion with respect to how their pension savings are managed. We argue that financial literacy should have a positive impact on the profitability of these decisions. Analysis based on micro-data from the Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in
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Product Market Competition and its Implications for the Australian Economy* Economic Record (IF 1.034) Pub Date : 2022-12-08 Jonathan Hambur
This paper documents firm mark-ups and competition in Australia, and their impact on productivity, using administrative data. I find that mark-ups increased by around 5 per cent since the mid 2000s, less than previously documented for Australia and slightly less than documented for the average advanced economy. While part appears to reflect technological change, part appears to reflect an increase
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House Prices, Monetary Policy and Commodities: Evidence from Australia* Economic Record (IF 1.034) Pub Date : 2022-12-07 James Graham, Alistair Read
Monetary policy and commodity prices are key drivers of Australian house prices, but endogeneity between these variables complicates empirical research. To address this, we use local projection methods and instrumental variables for estimation. We find that one standard deviation expansionary monetary and commodity shocks increase house prices at peak by 1.5 per cent and 1.4 per cent, respectively
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Do Financial Constraints Reduce Process Innovation? Evidence from Australian Firms* Economic Record (IF 1.034) Pub Date : 2022-11-07 Siddarth Roche, Sizhong Sun, Riccardo Welters
Accessing external finance for innovation is difficult. We study the effect of financial constraints on the probability of conducting process innovation, while also considering the role of past experience. We show a firm's optimal process innovation decision is a function of its previous decision and financial constraints, which naturally leads to a set of population moments for empirical testing with
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Equal Tax for Equal Alcohol? Beverage Types and Antisocial and Unlawful Behaviours* Economic Record (IF 1.034) Pub Date : 2022-11-02 Preety Srivastava, Ou Yang, Xueyan Zhao
Alcohol taxation is an important policy instrument for correcting for market failures associated with excessive alcohol consumption. This paper examines the beverage-specific negative externalities by providing empirical evidence linking ten alcoholic beverage types to drink-driving and hazardous, disturbing or abusive behaviours when intoxicated, using data from six waves of an Australian recreational
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Luck in a Flat Hierarchy: Wages, Bonuses and Noise Economic Record (IF 1.034) Pub Date : 2022-10-21 John G. Sessions, John D. Skåtun
We study bonuses in a flat hierarchy and find effort optimality to be violated within a two worker-type model with noisy performance indicators. Dedicated workers extract informational rents from firms whilst slack worker effort is inefficiently low. Whilst increases in measurement noise reduce the supply-side effort effects of bonuses, they also induce demand-side responses from firms seeking to counteract
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The Impact of Foreign Ownership on the Choice between Emission Taxes and Emission Standards* Economic Record (IF 1.034) Pub Date : 2022-10-19 Jiunn-Rong Chiou, Hung-Yi Chen
This research examines how foreign ownership affects the choice of two environmental policies. We find that a monopoly with foreign ownership produces more (less) and abates less (more) under emission standards than under emission taxes. As foreign ownership increases, with a small foreign ownership level the government is more likely to adopt the emission tax; and with a large foreign ownership level
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The Dynamics of Structural Transformation in Australia, 1960–2020* Economic Record (IF 1.034) Pub Date : 2022-07-25 Philip Chindamo, Vance L. Martin
A dynamic long-run general equilibrium framework based on a structural vector error correction model is used to study the factors determining the structural transformation of the Australian economy from 1960 to 2020. Three sets of shocks are identified: demand shocks through aggregate consumption, supply shocks caused by changes in relative prices across industries, and shocks arising from deviations
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Government Spending Multipliers in Times of Tight and Loose Monetary Policy in New Zealand* Economic Record (IF 1.034) Pub Date : 2022-07-24 Alfred A. Haug, India Power
We investigate the cumulative government spending multiplier in times of tight and loose monetary policy for New Zealand. Using local projections with instrumental variables, we find the spending multiplier peaks at 0.61 under loose monetary policy, while remaining statistically insignificant when monetary policy is tight. Splitting government spending into two components leads to different results
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Labour Market Effects of Bushfires and Floods in Australia: A Gendered Perspective* Economic Record (IF 1.034) Pub Date : 2022-06-24 Josiah Hickson, Joseph Marshan
We study the labour market effects of bushfires and floods within Australia over the past two decades, focusing on gender as a determinant of vulnerability. Whilst floods unambiguously increased the labour supply of both genders (creating around 13,500 jobs per year), the likelihood of female employment is particularly vulnerable to bushfires, falling by 1.6 percentage points (or around 5,000 jobs
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Assessing Australian Monetary Policy in the Twenty-First Century* Economic Record (IF 1.034) Pub Date : 2022-06-13 Isaac Gross, Andrew Leigh
Using the Reserve Bank of Australia's MARTIN model, we compare actual monetary policy decisions with a counterfactual in which the cash rate is set according to an optimal simple rule. We find that monetary policy played a crucial role in avoiding a potential recession in 2001 and mitigating the downturn in 2008–09. By contrast we find that the cash rate was too high during 2016–19, keeping inflation
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Food Affordability and Double Catastrophe in Early Life: Lessons from the 1974–75 Bangladesh Famine* Economic Record (IF 1.034) Pub Date : 2022-06-08 Nourin Shabnam, Mehmet A. Ulubaşoğlu, Cahit Guven
We study the educational outcomes of the 1974–75 Bangladesh famine among early life survivors using the 1991 Bangladesh micro-census data. We find that famine adversely affected survivor children in areas that experienced higher rice prices relative to labour wages. However, children living in wealthy households in famine-stricken areas escaped the adverse effects and had similar educational outcomes
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Economic Considerations in COVID-19 Vaccine Hesitancy and Refusal: A Survey of the Literature* Economic Record (IF 1.034) Pub Date : 2022-05-24 Louise Rawlings, Jeffrey C. L. Looi, Stephen J. Robson
The COVID-19 global pandemic has triggered one of the greatest economic shocks in a century. Effective COVID-19 vaccines have been developed, but a proportion of people either are hesitant or refuse to be vaccinated, facilitated by a global misinformation campaign. If ‘herd immunity’ cannot be achieved, there is potential not only for ongoing surges in infection, but also for development of new strains
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Superstar Productivity and Pay: Evidence from the Australian Football League Economic Record (IF 1.034) Pub Date : 2022-04-10 Patrick J. Ferguson, Matthew Pinnuck
We use game-level data from the Australian Football League (AFL) to examine superstar workers' productivity and pay. By exploiting teams' injury-induced line-up changes between games, we show that, compared with replacement-level players, superstars increase their teams' likelihood of winning away games by approximately 15 percentage points. While we then show that betting markets appear to appropriately
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Capital Misallocation and State Ownership Policy in Vietnam* Economic Record (IF 1.034) Pub Date : 2022-03-30 Phan Le
This paper examines capital misallocation of manufacturing firms in Vietnam during the period 2008–17. Three sources of capital misallocation are investigated: adjustment costs, uncertainty and policy distortions. The findings reveal the modest contribution of adjustment costs to total misallocation. In contrast, policy distortions account for 81 per cent of capital misallocation in Vietnam and lead
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Measuring Financial Wellbeing with Self-Reported and Bank Record Data* Economic Record (IF 1.034) Pub Date : 2022-03-18 Carole Comerton-Forde, John de New, Nicolás Salamanca, David C. Ribar, Andrea Nicastro, James Ross
We develop scales of the financial well-being of customers of a major Australian bank using self-reported survey data matched to customer financial records. Using item response theory (IRT) models, we develop: (1) a Reported Financial Wellbeing Scale from information about people’s experiences and perceptions of financial outcomes; and (2) an Observed Financial Wellbeing Scale from financial record
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Compensating Wage Differentials for Job Fatality and Injury Risk in Australia* Economic Record (IF 1.034) Pub Date : 2022-03-08 Zac Reynolds, Daehoon Nahm, Craig MacMillan
This study explores whether compensating wage differentials (CWDs) are still found for Australian workers using data from the Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) Survey, and risk data from Safe Work Australia. Our study finds evidence of CWDs for the risk of workplace fatalities that are smaller in magnitude compared to the estimates previously reported in the 1990s for Australia
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The Power of Creative Destruction, by PhilippeAghion, CelineAntonin and SimonBunel (Harvard University Press, Cambridge, MA, 2021), pp. 400. Economic Record (IF 1.034) Pub Date : 2022-02-28 Paul Frijters
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Populism and Trade, by Kent A.Jones (Oxford University Press, New York, 2021), pp. xii + 248 Economic Record (IF 1.034) Pub Date : 2022-02-23 Vishesh Agarwal
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The Cloud Revolution: How the Convergence of New Technologies Will Unleash the Next Economic Boom and a Roaring 2020s by Mark P.Mills (Encounter Books, New York, 2021), pp. 464. Economic Record (IF 1.034) Pub Date : 2022-02-21 Florence Neymotin
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Wrong Turnings: How the Left Got Lost, by Geoffrey M.Hodgson (University of Chicago Press, Chicago, 2018), pp. xi + 283. Economic Record (IF 1.034) Pub Date : 2022-02-20 Robert Breunig
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Game Theory Basics, by Bernhardvon Stengel (Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 2022), pp. xii + 362. Economic Record (IF 1.034) Pub Date : 2022-02-20 Ronald Stauber
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The Social Capital Effects of Refugee Resettlement on Host Communities* Economic Record (IF 1.034) Pub Date : 2022-02-10 Sabina Albrecht, David Smerdon
We examine the effects of refugee resettlement on the trust and attitudes of individuals in host populations. We exploit an exogenous resettlement shock in rural Australia and combine data from a lab-in-the-field experiment with repeated cross-sectional survey data to test the predictions of three prominent theories about inter-group contact: contact theory, conflict theory and constrict theory. Surprisingly
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Teenage Mothers’ Health across Different Life Stages* Economic Record (IF 1.034) Pub Date : 2022-02-08 Guyonne Kalb, Ha Vu
This paper determines the role of teenage motherhood and the likely channels through which teenage motherhood contributes to lifetime health disparities between teenage mothers and other women. We apply fixed-effects regressions, including a broad range of background characteristics, to control for prior disadvantage associated with teenage motherhood. We find that teenage motherhood is negatively
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The Impact of More Intensive Unemployment Benefit Requirements on Jobseekers’ Likelihood of Complying* Economic Record (IF 1.034) Pub Date : 2022-01-09 Andrew Wright, Brian Dollery, Michael Kortt, Shawn Leu
After 12 months of unemployment, Australian benefit recipients must undertake intensive participation in activities, in addition to standard requirements. Advocacy groups have raised concerns that these requirements are too onerous. If this were the case, those with additional requirements would be expected to comply less, and more often have a valid reason for non-compliance. We examine this claim
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