Understanding forecast revisions is critical for weather forecast users to determine the optimal timing for their planning decisions. A set of multi-horizon forecasts for wind speed produced by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology for 12 weather stations in eastern Australia are examined. The forecasts are examined in terms of the econometric definition of rationality and, as a robustness check, the

In 1977, Stigler and Becker hypothesised that ‘tastes neither change capriciously nor differ importantly between people’. In an interregional context, this implies that irrespective of differences in income and geography, consumers in different regions are similar. Studies conducted 25 years ago using data for Australian states found support for this hypothesis. However, due to the changing ethnic

Many governments intervene in private health insurance markets to incentivise demand, balance efficiency and equity, and counter adverse selection. In the context of rising health-care costs, this is a complex task, and understanding the relative effectiveness of interventions can help governments design an optimal policy mix. We evaluate the impact of means-testing a premium rebate and increasing

We use a discrete choice experiment to quantify whether superannuation fund members value higher allocations of funds to renewable energy investments in their portfolios. Mixed logit modelling provides evidence that this valuation is driven by a fund member's environmental sentiment. Latent class modelling suggests that two classes of superannuation fund members exist: those whose preferences align

We use sign-identified macroeconomic models to study the interaction of financial sector and sovereign credit risks in Europe. We find that country-specific financial sector bailout shocks do not generate strong international spillovers, because they primarily transfer private sector risk onto the local sovereign. By contrast, sovereign risk shocks generate substantial spillovers onto the global financial

Using firm-level data, we analyse the patterns, innovation characteristics and determinants of turnover high-growth firms (HGFs) in Australia. We find most HGFs do not stay in the high-growth phase for long, and following the Global Financial Crisis the proportion of HGFs has declined. For HGFs, the results suggest that innovation in goods and services has a much greater impact on turnover growth than

This paper provides the first estimates of the extent of common ownership of competing firms in Australia. Combining data on market shares and substantial shareholdings, we calculate the impact of common ownership on effective market concentration. Among firms where we can identify at least one owner, 31 per cent share a substantial owner with a rival company. Analysing 443 industries, we identify

Using data from the Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) survey together with OLS and quantile regressions, this paper examines the changing returns to education and the evolving wage structure of young adults (aged 25–34 years) between 2001 and 2019. Estimates show that real wage growth was strong for both males and females over the 2000s, underpinned by wage structure effects

The economic literature considers a low-paid job as a ‘stepping-stone’ if it improves jobless individuals’ future likelihood of transitioning towards higher pay. The majority of empirical studies rely on annual surveys and are unable to differentiate individuals by their degree of attachment to the low-paid sector. Using population-wide administrative data with monthly earnings information, our study

This paper quantifies the factors contributing to Australia’s gender gap in superannuation balances. Around 60 per cent of the gap can be attributed to the prior stock of superannuation, for respondents who had superannuation balances in both 2014 and 2018 in the Household Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia Survey. This is partly due to the accumulation of the prior gap with investment returns

Great Britain established the new colony of South Australia (SA) in 1834, and migration from Britain to the colony began in 1836. After seven turbulent years, the discovery of two large deposits of copper at Kapunda (1843–4) and Burra (1844–5) renewed the colony’s economic prospects. Over the 1845–50 period, SA supplied roughly 9 per cent of the world’s copper production. Immigration to SA from Britain

We add a housing sector to the Reserve Bank of Australia's small open-economy model to explore the effect of commodity price shocks on housing investment. The model predicts that housing investment booms may follow commodity booms. Commodity booms have a persistent effect on housing services price inflation and they ‘crowd out’ housing investment. When the commodity boom ends, the combination of higher

Using firm-level data, we examine the efficiency of labour reallocation in Australia over the period 2002–16. We find that more productive firms account for a higher share of employment – particularly in trade-exposed sectors – and Australia appears more successful at reallocating resources to high-productivity firms than many OECD countries. But the propensity for high-productivity firms to expand

Do ethnic enclaves assist or hinder immigrants’ economic performance? The empirical literature on this question is inconclusive. In this paper we extend the literature by constructing a dynamic variable from micro‐panel data to capture the effects of spatial networks of immigrants’ ethnic‐specific resources. We account for endogeneity of the network and other variables. Using the HILDA data set, and

We study the progressivity of Australia's personal income tax system after the introduction of a New Tax System (Goods and Services Tax) Act 1999. We use two data sets: administrative data from Australian Tax Office (ATO) 2004-16 and survey data from the Household Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) survey 2001-16. We first document the distributions of income and tax liabilities, properties

Non‐pecuniary rewards to work, or psychic income, are a pervasive phenomenon in several labour markets, yet they have been little investigated either theoretically or empirically. Creative industries are a particular case where non‐monetary incentives are widely observed. These are also industries where moonlighting commonly occurs because artistic or creative activity is generally low paid, such that

We examine the consumer price inflation experiences of Australian households across the income distribution using Australian Bureau of Statistics data and prices and methodology from the national consumer price index. Across the period 2011–18, we find that the lowest‐income households have experienced the largest inflation and those at the top have experienced the least inflation. These differences

In this paper we establish empirical evidence for the relationship between the systematic jump betas of financial institutions and two types of systemic risk index: a capital shortfall index and a interconnectedness index. Using high-frequency data for US financial sector stocks, we show that equity market jumps are positively related to capital shortfall and negatively related to interconnectedness

Existing evidence has demonstrated that sanctions affect unemployment payment recipients’ behaviour. However, in addition to financial impacts, sanction application includes administrative processes. This study examines a feature of Australian unemployment benefits, whereby jobseekers not meeting requirements may face a zero‐dollar sanction (termed suspension). The results indicate a strong behavioural

Paid parental leave has become an increasingly important part of family policy in OECD countries: by 2004 on average over a year of leave paid at 59% of average wages was provided. Australia's Paid Parental Leave (PPL) scheme was introduced in 2011 and provides 18 weeks of leave paid at the full time minimum wage for the primary carer of a child. Prior to the scheme, federal and state legislation provided

We examine the risk transmission mechanisms in the interconnected Australian National Electricity Market (NEM). We illustrate that the transmission of extreme events in terms of their magnitude (via skewness) and the likelihood of their occurrence (via kurtosis) should be considered when promoting NEM interconnectedness. Our empirical findings suggest that interconnectedness costs can be limited by

This paper develops a methodology for detecting and measuring contagion using high-frequency data which disentangles continuous and discontinuous price movements. We demonstrate its finite-sample properties using Monte Carlo simulation, focusing on the empirically plausible parameter space. Decisions to extend the role of financial regulation around the world to the supervision of insurers in the wake

This study assesses the impact on competitiveness of banking takeovers in Australia, to inform regulators and contribute to the mergers and acquisitions body of international evidence. New industrial organisation theories and empirical evidence suggest that more concentration may or may not lead to decreased competition. We assess competitiveness with the Bresnahan–Lau conduct coefficient. We find

This paper investigates the presence of housing bubbles in Australia at the national, capital city, and local government area (LGA) levels. We control for housing market demand and supply fundamentals using the technique of Shi (2017), and employ the recursive evolving method proposed by Phillips et al. (2015a,b) for the detection of explosive bubbles. While the national-level analysis suggests a short-lived

We review the literature on financial constraints and the performance of small and medium enterprises (SMEs). We consider the important role that SMEs play in the economies of Australia and the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development. We examine the role of financial constraints in SME growth, with emphasis on business cycles and credit access. We discuss issues that SMEs face in accessing

This paper examines the efficacy of the Australian points system in a family context among working‐age permanent resident immigrants who arrived between 2000 and 2011 when there was a major focus on skills selection. Sixty‐seven per cent of these immigrants were granted a skilled visa while 25 per cent hold a spousal visa (spouses of Australian citizens). More than half of the skilled visa recipients

Using a route choice experiment with embedded travel time variability, this study empirically estimates car commuters' risk attitudes and taste preferences within a nonlinear mixed logit model. In addition to the identified overall risk‐taking behaviour, we find that risk attitudes covary with some sociodemographic characteristics, that is, older commuters are more risk‐taking than young ones and higher‐income

This book provides an excellent summary of labour market facts over the past couple of years as well as great insight into Blanchflower's thinking during his time as external UK Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) member. While this was the biggest shock to labour markets in recent history, of course the lack of wage growth and declining job opportunities for non-university-educated workers are phenomena

Since he won the Nobel Prize and joined the World Bank as Chief Economist, most of us see Stiglitz as a policy-oriented economist clearly aligned with the political left. To those with preconceived ideas about Stiglitz's world-view, it may come as a surprise that Stiglitz argues strongly in favour of competition - very much in line with what we teach in first-year economics classes. I feel that in

Market research enables firms to identify customer needs and preferences using data. Traditionally the focus of textbooks about market research is on the detailing of the market research process and the foundations of analysis methods. Sufficient background information about the market research process, basic empirical methods, and their application using Stata add up to a good choice for entering