-
The impact of the shadow economy on the direct-indirect tax mix: Can central banks’ independence mitigate the effect0? Journal of Policy Modeling (IF 2.727) Pub Date : 2024-03-10 Ioannis Dokas, Minas Panagiotidis, Stephanos Papadamou, Eleftherios Spyromitros
The recent financial crisis caused by corruption and opacity has led us to examine how the informal economy and other factors affect tax revenues using a three-pillar theoretical analysis. Empirical research has not thoroughly explored the shadow economy's impact on direct and indirect taxes, tax revenues, and the central bank's independence from the shadow economy and tax collection. This paper used
-
Immigration and the distribution of income, consumption and wealth in the euro area: implications for economic policies Journal of Policy Modeling (IF 2.727) Pub Date : 2024-02-20 Maarten Dossche, Aleksandra Kolndrekaj, Maximilian Propst, Javier Ramos Perez, Jiri Slacalek, Marton Vegh
-
Should the South African Reserve Bank lower the inflation target band? Insights from the GDP-inflation nexus Journal of Policy Modeling (IF 2.727) Pub Date : 2024-02-17 Eliphas Ndou, Nombulelo Gumata
Should the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) lower the inflation target (IT) band? Does lowering the IT band impact the relationship between GDP growth and inflation? This paper explores these questions considering the SARB Governor, Lesetja Kganyago statements that there is a need to lower the IT band from 3-6 percent to a point target of 3 percent. We estimate the VAR model to determine whether the
-
ECONOMIC CRISIS AND CRIME: MONEY UNDER THE MATTRESS DURING FINANCIAL DESTABILIZATION Journal of Policy Modeling (IF 2.727) Pub Date : 2024-02-15 Eleni Kyrkopoulou, Alexandros Louka, Kristin Fabbe
The paper investigates the effect of a (semi-) deposit run during a debt crisis on crime rates. The study focuses on Greece’s protracted debt crisis (2009–2018) and analyzes the response of crime to deposit outflows. It shows that deposit outflows corresponded to a significant increase in property crimes (thefts and burglaries), but not other types of offenses. The study provides useful policy insights
-
Are immunization policies sustainable in the Indian context? Insights into wastage and inefficiencies Journal of Policy Modeling (IF 2.727) Pub Date : 2024-02-06 Utkarsh Shivam, Anand Kumar, Samir K Srivastava
Immunization programs globally have played a pivotal role in reducing mortality rates. However, the effectiveness of these programs often falls short of the intended coverage targets, primarily due to challenges within the supply chain, storage facilities, and distribution processes. Notably, a substantial percentage of vaccine wastage has been observed in numerous countries, thereby imposing a significant
-
Targeting profits: The economic impact of arms embargoes on defense companies Journal of Policy Modeling (IF 2.727) Pub Date : 2024-02-06 Jeroen Klomp
This study explores the impact of arms embargoes on the economic performance of major international defense companies. The direction of this effect is not immediately clear as it relies on the embargo evading opportunities by exporting companies on the one hand and the stringency of enforcement by the sending state on the other. The main findings in this study indicate that the total revenues of a
-
Net Interest Income of Greek Banks: is it a case of Bankflation? Journal of Policy Modeling (IF 2.727) Pub Date : 2024-02-06 George Agiomirgianakis, Stavros Arvanitis, Mamatzakis Emmanuel, George Sfakianakis
On 27 of July 2022, the European Central Bank (ECB) responding to emerging inflation pressures increased the interest rate of the main refinancing operation to 0.5 % up from 0.0 % which was the norm for the second half of the previous decade. Since then, the ECB responded to inflationary shocks by increasing interest rates nine more times till 20 September 2023, reaching 4.5 %. Following these unprecedented
-
Inequalities in educational achievement: Effect of individuals’ capabilities & social identity Journal of Policy Modeling (IF 2.727) Pub Date : 2024-02-05 Diptanshu Gaur, Shivendra Kumar Pandey, Dheeraj Sharma
We address the issue of inequalities in educational achievements among social groups, within the framework of Sustainable Development Goal 10 (SDG10). Despite efforts to distribute resources equitably and implement affirmative government actions, educational inequalities remain a significant challenge, partially due to the continuing impact of social group dynamics. Previous studies have emphasized
-
Space launches and the environment: As the earth orbit level matters, what can be done? Journal of Policy Modeling (IF 2.727) Pub Date : 2024-02-01 Ficawoyi Donou-Adonsou
We investigate the impact of U.S. space activity on the environment by Earth orbit level. We exploit the environmental Kuznets framework and apply the two-stage least squares method to time series data collected between 1981 and 2021. The results demonstrate that, while the orbit level does not matter for the launch, the impact on the environment, however, seems to be more notable the higher the orbit
-
Aggregate Demand and Inflation Response to Monetary Policy Shocks in Tunisia Journal of Policy Modeling (IF 2.727) Pub Date : 2024-01-29 Mohamed Ben Mimoun, Jamel Boukhatem, Asma Raies
We investigate the response of aggregate demand (AD) components and inflation to monetary policy (MP) shocks in the Tunisian context where studies on this issue are rare. By estimating SVAR models on historical data ending in 2021, we found that: i) The Tunisian Central Bank’s (BTC) efforts to control inflation through interest rate tightening end up significantly slowing down private investment and
-
Fiscal decentralization for the delivery of health and education: in Indian states an ongoing process is more desirable than a policy shift Journal of Policy Modeling (IF 2.727) Pub Date : 2024-01-17 Sankalpa Bhattacharjee, Richa Singh, Amarendu Nandy
We examine the impact of fiscal decentralization reforms on two central components of public service delivery outcomes, viz., health and education using feasible generalized least squares on a balanced panel of 18 non-special category states of India for the period 2002–2020. Given India’s complex decentralization framework, intertwined with dynamic political and socioeconomic dimensions and weak institutional
-
The transition from COVID-19 infections to deaths: Do governance quality and corruption affect it? Journal of Policy Modeling (IF 2.727) Pub Date : 2024-01-17 Bartosz Gebka, Rama Prasad Kanungo, John Wildman
We investigate the impact of governance quality and corruption on the propensity of COVID-19 infections to result in deaths, while controlling for a wide range of socio-economic country characteristics, for 139 countries. Governance quality is negatively associated with mortality from COVID-19, for a given number of infections. This result holds for the aggregate governance index and for most of its
-
Does Foreign Currency Borrowing Make Firms Vulnerable? Experience of Emerging India Journal of Policy Modeling (IF 2.727) Pub Date : 2024-01-17 Abhisek Sur, Amarendu Nandy, Partha Ray
The Asian Financial Crisis during the late 1990s revealed the fault lines of foreign currency loans of corporates. It starkly demonstrated that a combination of semi-pegged exchange rates and unregulated foreign currency borrowing could expose corporates and, subsequently, the entire economy to heightened vulnerability. To mitigate these risks, implementing certain capital account restrictions emerged
-
Sustainability reporting harmonisation? A utopian endeavour for European agri-food companies Journal of Policy Modeling (IF 2.727) Pub Date : 2024-01-19 Carlos Anguiano-Santos, Melania Salazar-Ordóñez, Rossana Tornel-Vázquez, Macario Rodríguez-Entrena
Regulatory harmonisation stands as a central issue in the European Union (EU), playing a key role in achieving the single market. Accounting harmonisation in particular has been the subject of different regulatory frameworks, mainly directives. However, the literature suggests that the implementation of these directives within the EU does not consistently meet its harmonisation goals due to diverse
-
Innovation policy and corporate finance: the Italian automotive supply chain and its transition to Industry 4.0 Journal of Policy Modeling (IF 2.727) Pub Date : 2024-01-18 G.G. Calabrese, G. Falavigna, R. Ippoliti
This work investigates the SMEs of the Italian automotive supply chain, testing the impact of an innovation policy created with the target of supporting investments in Industry 4.0. In detail, the authors examine the impact of this policy on SMEs’ access to the capital market (i) and their financial performance (ii). The former is an appropriate proxy to measure the effectiveness of such policy; while
-
Social expenditure composition, inequality and growth in the OECD: labour markets policies are most effective Journal of Policy Modeling (IF 2.727) Pub Date : 2024-01-17 Pedro Bação, Joshua Duarte, Marta Simões
The literature on public social expenditure envisages a role for the composition of public social expenditure in the design of policies to reduce inequality and promote economic growth. However, there is a lack of empirical evidence on which to ground social policy decisions. This study contributes to filling this gap by investigating the dynamic interdependencies between nine different categories
-
Zombie-lending during the pandemic in India: did the Central Bank reduce credit misallocation concerns of forbearance? Journal of Policy Modeling (IF 2.727) Pub Date : 2024-01-03 Prasenjit Chakrabarti, Jasmeet Kaur
During the COVID-19 pandemic, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) undertook a policy mix approach to maintain financial stability in the Indian banking system. RBI recapitalized the banks and infused liquidity through accommodative monetary policies combined with temporary forbearance policies of restructuring loans to boost credit growth and support economic expansion. With a focus on zombie lending,
-
The threshold effect of institutional quality on sovereign debt and economic stability Journal of Policy Modeling (IF 2.727) Pub Date : 2023-12-08 Mohammad Ashraful Ferdous Chowdhury, Ehsanur Rauf Prince, Mohammad Shoyeb, Mohammad Abdullah
This study examines the threshold effect of institutional quality on the sovereign debt-macroeconomic stability nexus using panel data from 133 countries covering the period from 2002 to 2020. We measure macroeconomic stability using principal component analysis of budget deficit, annual inflation rate, official exchange rate, real interest rate, and unemployment rate. The dynamic GMM result shows
-
The never-ending debate: do FDI promote institutional change? Evidence from India and partner countries Journal of Policy Modeling (IF 2.727) Pub Date : 2023-12-08 Khushboo Kumari, Renjith Ramachandran
Institutional quality has been opined as a significant determinant of FDI inflow in international business literature. On the contrary, literature on determinants of institutional quality and how it changes is scant and merits further study. This study analyses the impact of FDI on institutional distance in the context of India and its partner countries, i.e., whether it leads to convergence or divergence
-
The effectiveness of fiscal policy in Brazil through the MIDAS Lens Journal of Policy Modeling (IF 2.727) Pub Date : 2023-12-05 Renan Alves, Andreza A. Palma
This paper aims to examine the effects of fiscal policy on economic growth in Brazil between 1999 and 2017. For this purpose, a novel methodology is applied, using a Vector Autoregressive with Mixed Frequency (MIDAS-VAR) model, proposed by Ghysels (2016), which allows for the estimation of the spending multiplier by measuring the impact of high-frequency data at low-frequency and vice versa. The impact
-
Growth Gains from Offshore Outsourcing Journal of Policy Modeling (IF 2.727) Pub Date : 2023-12-01 Anwesha Basu, Sugata Marjit, C. Veeramani
We contribute theoretically and empirically to the policy debate on the domestic impact of offshore outsourcing. First, within a simple Ricardian structure, we put forward a growth model where sourcing of foreign inputs by itself, without any transplanted channels, leads to higher growth of domestic industries. Second, by combining country-sector level panel data on production with data on sector level
-
-
-
Is it worth subsidising the cultural sector? New insights from Italian theatre companies Journal of Policy Modeling (IF 2.727) Pub Date : 2023-11-21 Concetta Castiglione, Davide Infante, Marta Zieba
We study the impact of public subsidies on the efficiency of performing arts through an empirical analysis of Italian theatres (including opera houses, permanent theatres, and theatre production companies), using an output-oriented approach. Firstly, we discuss the previous works on efficiency and its determinants in the presence of public subsidies. Secondly, the stochastic frontier analysis true
-
The press and government, influencers of citizens’ political opinions: a quasi-experiment on Brexit Journal of Policy Modeling (IF 2.727) Pub Date : 2023-11-19 Maria-Magdalena Roşu, Andrada Fiscutean, Mihaela Paun
In a highly interconnected world, it is important to determine how local events happening somewhere can influence the course of action in a different place. The current study approaches Brexit' spillover effect across Europe regarding Euroscepticism and Europeans' attitudes towards the EU. Through a quasi-experimental methodology, we employed the data from the eighth and the ninth edition of the European
-
Artificial Intelligence (AI) can change the way of doing policy modelling Journal of Policy Modeling (IF 2.727) Pub Date : 2023-11-07 Mario Arturo Ruiz Estrada, Donghyun Park, Marcin Staniewski
This paper seeks to assess the transformative potential of Artificial Intelligence (AI) in policy modeling. Rapid advancements in AI, encompassing algorithms, advanced programming software, robotics, metadata, sophisticated mathematical models, neural networks, and graphical models are ushering in innovative new research methods for analysing and resolving intricate socio-economic issues. Our focus
-
The Debt-Growth Nexus and Debt Sustainability in Nigeria: Are There Reasons to be Concerned? Journal of Policy Modeling (IF 2.727) Pub Date : 2023-11-04 Olajide O. Oyadeyi, Olayode W. Agboola, Solomon O. Okunade, Tolulope T. Osinubi
This study examined the threshold effect of debt on economic growth in Nigeria, with a view to investigating debt sustainability levels in the country. The analysis included yearly data from 1981 to 2021. To achieve its objectives, the study used two-regime threshold ARDL regression approaches. Findings reveal that the optimal thresholds for total debt as a ratio of GDP (TDB/GDP), GNI (TDB/GNI), total
-
The asymmetric impact of real exchange rate misalignment on growth dynamics in Turkey Journal of Policy Modeling (IF 2.727) Pub Date : 2023-11-04 Waqar Khalid, Irfan Civcir, Hüseyin Özdeşer, Javed Iqbal
Earlier empirical studies examining the impact of exchange rate misalignment on economic growth were based on a symmetric approach, assuming that undervaluation and overvaluation affect economic growth symmetrically. However, recent empirical studies have shown that exchange rate misalignments asymmetrically affect economic growth. This study, therefore, examines the asymmetric effects of real exchange
-
Terrorism and economic policy responses in Tunisia Journal of Policy Modeling (IF 2.727) Pub Date : 2023-11-04 Insaf Khelifi, Yazid Dissou, Anis Bouabid
This paper uses a recursive dynamic general equilibrium model to study the impact of the 2015 terrorist attacks in Tunisia. It examines the government’s fiscal responses: increased security spending and the reduction of the tourism sector’s value-added tax (VAT) rate. It finds that these responses accounted for a significant share of the attacks’ total cost. The results also underscore the need for
-
-
-
Government debt forecast errors and the net expenditure rule in EU countries: Undue optimism at a cost Journal of Policy Modeling (IF 2.727) Pub Date : 2023-10-06 David Cronin, Kieran McQuinn
Against a backdrop of debt ratio targets being central to recent proposed changes to the EU fiscal rules, we examine errors in official forecasts of the General Government debt ratios and their determinants in 26 member states from 2012 to 2019 when the “six pack” rules applied. We find debt ratio outturns exceeding projected values with forecast errors increasing over a four-year horizon. Larger errors
-
Optimal allocation of agriculture’s public budget can improve transformation and healthy diets access in Ethiopia Journal of Policy Modeling (IF 2.727) Pub Date : 2023-09-28 Marco V. Sánchez, Martín Cicowiez
Agriculture is under transformation in sub-Saharan Africa where millions still do not have access to a healthy diet. Policy makers in this region should find ways to accelerate agricultural transformation while increasing access to healthy diets. Optimizing agriculture’s public budget stands out as a handy option. By combining a dynamic computable general equilibrium model and a multi-criteria decision-making
-
Foreign currency borrowing and risk exposure of firms: An emerging market economy viewpoint Journal of Policy Modeling (IF 2.727) Pub Date : 2023-09-27 Prasenjit Chakrabarti, Sudipta Sen
Foreign currency borrowings by emerging market corporations have increased significantly post-global financial crisis. Extant literature has mainly focussed on the flow of foreign currency borrowings, and policies which control the volatility of the flow of the foreign currency borrowings. In this paper, we emphasize the stock of the foreign currency borrowings in the balance sheet of a firm instead
-
-
-
The impact of public subsidies on investment and growth: Policy about evaluation, selection and monitoring Journal of Policy Modeling (IF 2.727) Pub Date : 2023-09-16 László Kállay, Tibor Takács
Public subsidy, a frequently applied tool of economic development is often provided to the business sector assuming that it promotes investments, employment, and income generation. In this paper a micro economic model based empirical analysis is presented that shows the possible impact of public subsidy on economic growth. The outcomes are derived by investigating the investment decision of the enterprise
-
Financial markets, inflation and growth: The impact of monetary policy under different political structures Journal of Policy Modeling (IF 2.727) Pub Date : 2023-09-03 Abdorasoul Sadeghi, Seyed Komail Tayebi, Soheil Roudari
This study assesses the likely effects of different political structures on economic growth by the effects of interest rate on the linkage between financial markets. For this aim, we chose two developing economies with different governance structures, Iran and Argentina. There is a political structure in Iran influenced by religion, whereas Argentina’s political structure does not deal with religion
-
How do industrialization and agricultural land use affect urban population in Turkey? Policy implications in the context of SDGs Journal of Policy Modeling (IF 2.727) Pub Date : 2023-08-26 Volkan Göçoğlu, Serkan Göksu
Urban population growth in Turkey has been increasing rapidly since the middle of the 20th century. The escalating population, particularly in urban regions, has emerged as a critical challenge in achieving sustainable governance. The Sustainable Development Goals 2,9, and 11 present various avenues for the government to address this predicament. This research employs the framework of multiple stream
-
Macro-prudential policies to contain the effect of structural risks on financial downturns Journal of Policy Modeling (IF 2.727) Pub Date : 2023-08-19 Martin Hodula, Jan Janků, Lukáš Pfeifer
We investigate the extent to which various structural risks exacerbate the materialization of credit risk and affect financial cycle downturns. We use a large database covering all sorts of cyclical and structural features of the financial sector and the real economy for a panel of 30 countries over the period 2006Q1–2019Q4. We show that elevated levels of structural risks may have an important role
-
Trading with friends in uncertain times Journal of Policy Modeling (IF 2.727) Pub Date : 2023-08-05 Adam Jakubik, Michele Ruta
Abstract not available
-
Trade and growth in the world economy Journal of Policy Modeling (IF 2.727) Pub Date : 2023-08-04 Dominick Salvatore, Alberto Costantiello, Fred Campano
Abstract not available
-
International trade cooperation’s impact on the world economy Journal of Policy Modeling (IF 2.727) Pub Date : 2023-08-02 Jeanne Métivier, Marc Bacchetta, Eddy Bekkers, Robert Koopman
Abstract not available
-
Globalization: Uncoupled or unhinged? Journal of Policy Modeling (IF 2.727) Pub Date : 2023-08-02 Barry Eichengreen
Abstract not available
-
Are trade restrictions counter-cyclical? Evidence from a new aggregate measure Journal of Policy Modeling (IF 2.727) Pub Date : 2023-08-01 Julia Estefania-Flores, Davide Furceri, Swarnali A. Hannan, Jonathan D. Ostry, Andrew K. Rose
We present a new Measure of Aggregate Trade Restrictions (MATR) using data from the IMF’s Annual Report on Exchange Arrangements and Exchange Restrictions. MATR is strongly correlated with existing measures of trade restrictiveness but more comprehensive in terms of country and time coverage. Our measure is available for an unbalanced sample of up to 157 countries during 1949–2019. We use our new MATR
-
Where is the Euro Area headed? Restoration of price stability Journal of Policy Modeling (IF 2.727) Pub Date : 2023-07-31 Anastasios G. Malliaris, Mary E. Malliaris
After the two recent global shocks of the COVID-19 Pandemic of 2019–2021 and the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the 2023–24 economic priority for the Euro Area is the fight against inflation in the midst of global economic and financial uncertainties. We focus on Euro Area inflation, analyze its diagnostics, examine inflation expectations, review theories of inflation and evaluate monetary
-
Climate Policy and Global Challenges: a monetary policy perspective Journal of Policy Modeling (IF 2.727) Pub Date : 2023-07-28 Catherine L. Mann, Natalie Burr
Abstract not available
-
Whither multilateralism? Journal of Policy Modeling (IF 2.727) Pub Date : 2023-07-29 Joseph E. Stiglitz
Abstract not available
-
Where is the EU economy headed? The international dimension Journal of Policy Modeling (IF 2.727) Pub Date : 2023-07-28 Moreno Bertoldi, Annika Eriksgård, Kristian Orsini, Philipp Pfeiffer
Since 2020, the EU economy has been hit by a number of external shocks that have had a major impact on growth, employment and inflation. As the outlook for the world remains highly uncertain, international conditions are likely to continue to affect the EU’s economic performance until a more stable equilibrium is reached. The question is in which direction and by how much? This article presents three
-
How susceptible is the European financial stability to economic policy uncertainty? Journal of Policy Modeling (IF 2.727) Pub Date : 2023-07-28 Lucjan T. Orlowski
This study examines the interdependence and asymmetries in the relationships between the economic policy uncertainty and the selected financial stability variables in Europe. Specifically, the impact of uncertainty on inflation, equity returns, the euro in US dollar exchange rate and interest rates is analyzed. The results show a significant negative impact of shocks in economic policy uncertainty
-
Trade-growth nexus: A study of G20 countries using simultaneous equations model with dynamic policy simulations Journal of Policy Modeling (IF 2.727) Pub Date : 2023-07-28 Janhavi Shankar Tripathi
Abstract not available
-
Editorial Journal of Policy Modeling (IF 2.727) Pub Date : 2023-07-28 Dominick Salvatore
Abstract not available
-
The European Union in the age of slowbalisation Journal of Policy Modeling (IF 2.727) Pub Date : 2023-07-28 Pompeo Della Posta
The global financial crisis of 2008/09 is generally regarded as the beginning of a slowdown in the process of economic globalization, what has been called slowbalisation. As a consequence of the changed geopolitical climate, the EU is now encouraging the reshoring (or the nearshoring) of certain activities and is pursuing an active industrial policy in critical sectors where it feels vulnerable. I
-
A simultaneous equations model of the relationship between international trade, and economic growth and development with dynamic policy simulations Journal of Policy Modeling (IF 2.727) Pub Date : 2023-07-28 Dominick Salvatore
Abstract not available
-
The case for a World Carbon Bank Journal of Policy Modeling (IF 2.727) Pub Date : 2023-07-27 Kenneth Rogoff
This paper explores the idea of creating a new multilateral financial institution, a World Carbon Bank, to channel aid funds and technical expertise to low and middle-income countries, to aid with the green transition. A focused high-return first project could involve phasing out coal power plants and replacing with green alternatives. Coal accounts for 30% of global emissions. Many coal plants are
-
“One-size-fits-all” public works contract does it better? An assessment of infrastructure provision in Italy Journal of Policy Modeling (IF 2.727) Pub Date : 2023-07-19 Massimo Finocchiaro Castro, Calogero Guccio, Ilde Rizzo
Public infrastructure procurement is a crucial policy tool, a prerequisite for public and private investments and for economic and social capital growth. Low performance in execution severely hinders infrastructure provision and benefits delivery. One of the most sensitive phases in public infrastructure procurement is the design because of the strategic relationship that it potentially creates between
-
Can auctions increase competition in the pension funds market? The Chilean experience Journal of Policy Modeling (IF 2.727) Pub Date : 2023-07-11 Rodrigo Harrison, Marcela Parada-Contzen, Marcelo Villena
This paper analyses the auction policy over enrollees’ monopoly rights introduced in the Chilean pension system. This policy was designed to promote competition in the pension fund market driven by private firms, after 30 years of operation. Since the Chilean pension fund system has inspired dozens of countries in the last forty years, the analysis of the design and performance of its relatively new
-
Regional economic integration and machine learning: Policy insights from the review of literature Journal of Policy Modeling (IF 2.727) Pub Date : 2023-07-08 Philippe De Lombaerde, Dominik Naeher, Hung Trung Vo, Takfarinas Saber
Due to its focus on prediction rather than causal inference, machine learning has long been treated somewhat neglectfully in the economic literature. For several reasons, however, interest in machine learning has surged recently and is slowly finding its way into the econometric toolbox. Within the economic literature, regional integration has been one of the research areas at the forefront of this
-
-