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Strategic Sample Selection Econometrica (IF 3.992) Pub Date : 2021-03-22 Alfredo Di Tillio, Marco Ottaviani, Peter Norman Sørensen
Are the highest sample realizations selected from a larger presample more or less informative than the same amount of random data? Developing multivariate accuracy for interval dominance ordered preferences, we show that sample selection always benefits (or always harms) a decision maker if the reverse hazard rate of the data distribution is log‐supermodular (or log‐submodular), as in location experiments
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Strategic Analysis of Auctions Econometrica (IF 3.992) Pub Date : 2021-03-22 Robert B. Wilson
The diploma for the Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economics Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel that I shared in 2020 with Paul Milgrom cites “improvements in auction theory and inventions of new auction formats”.11 The Prize in Economic Sciences 2020. NobelPrize.org. Nobel Media AB 2020. www.nobelprize.org/prizes/economic-sciences/2020/summary/, www.nobelprize.org/uploads/2020/09/advanced-economicsciencesprize2020
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Equitable Voting Rules Econometrica (IF 3.992) Pub Date : 2021-03-22 Laurent Bartholdi, Wade Hann‐Caruthers, Maya Josyula, Omer Tamuz, Leeat Yariv
May's theorem (1952), a celebrated result in social choice, provides the foundation for majority rule. May's crucial assumption of symmetry, often thought of as a procedural equity requirement, is violated by many choice procedures that grant voters identical roles. We show that a weakening of May's symmetry assumption allows for a far richer set of rules that still treat voters equally. We show that
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Spurious Factor Analysis Econometrica (IF 3.992) Pub Date : 2021-03-22 Alexei Onatski, Chen Wang
This paper draws parallels between the principal components analysis of factorless high‐dimensional nonstationary data and the classical spurious regression. We show that a few of the principal components of such data absorb nearly all the data variation. The corresponding scree plot suggests that the data contain a few factors, which is corroborated by the standard panel information criteria. Furthermore
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Selecting Applicants Econometrica (IF 3.992) Pub Date : 2021-03-22 Alex Frankel
A firm selects applicants to hire based on hard information, such as a test result, and soft information, such as a manager's evaluation of an interview. The contract that the firm offers to the manager can be thought of as a restriction on acceptance rates as a function of test results. I characterize optimal acceptance rate functions both when the firm knows the manager's mix of information and biases
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Learning From Coworkers Econometrica (IF 3.992) Pub Date : 2021-03-22 Gregor Jarosch, Ezra Oberfield, Esteban Rossi‐Hansberg
We investigate learning at the workplace. To do so, we use German administrative data that contain information on the entire workforce of a sample of establishments. We document that having more‐highly‐paid coworkers is strongly associated with future wage growth, particularly if those workers earn more. Motivated by this fact, we propose a dynamic theory of a competitive labor market where firms produce
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Information Technology and Government Decentralization: Experimental Evidence From Paraguay Econometrica (IF 3.992) Pub Date : 2021-03-22 Ernesto Dal Bó, Frederico Finan, Nicholas Y. Li, Laura Schechter
Standard models of hierarchy assume that agents and middle managers are better informed than principals. We estimate the value of the informational advantage held by supervisors—middle managers—when ministerial leadership—the principal—introduced a new monitoring technology aimed at improving the performance of agricultural extension agents (AEAs) in rural Paraguay. Our approach employs a novel experimental
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Micro Data and Macro Technology Econometrica (IF 3.992) Pub Date : 2021-03-22 Ezra Oberfield, Devesh Raval
We develop a framework to estimate the aggregate capital‐labor elasticity of substitution by aggregating the actions of individual plants. The aggregate elasticity reflects substitution within plants and reallocation across plants; the extent of heterogeneity in capital intensities determines their relative importance. We use micro data on the cross‐section of plants to build up to the aggregate elasticity
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Theory of Weak Identification in Semiparametric Models Econometrica (IF 3.992) Pub Date : 2021-03-22 Tetsuya Kaji
We provide general formulation of weak identification in semiparametric models and an efficiency concept. Weak identification occurs when a parameter is weakly regular, that is, when it is locally homogeneous of degree zero. When this happens, consistent or equivariant estimation is shown to be impossible. We then show that there exists an underlying regular parameter that fully characterizes the weakly
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Reasonable Doubt: Experimental Detection of Job‐Level Employment Discrimination Econometrica (IF 3.992) Pub Date : 2021-03-22 Patrick Kline, Christopher Walters
This paper develops methods for detecting discrimination by individual employers using correspondence experiments that send fictitious resumes to real job openings. We establish identification of higher moments of the distribution of job‐level callback rates as a function of the number of resumes sent to each job and propose shape‐constrained estimators of these moments. Applying our methods to three
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Long‐Term Contracting With Time‐Inconsistent Agents Econometrica (IF 3.992) Pub Date : 2021-03-22 Daniel Gottlieb, Xingtan Zhang
We study contracts between naive present‐biased consumers and risk‐neutral firms. We show that the welfare loss from present bias vanishes as the contracting horizon grows. This is true both when bargaining power is on the consumers' and on the firms' side, when consumers cannot commit to long‐term contracts, and when firms do not know the consumers' naiveté. However, the welfare loss from present
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Model Selection for Treatment Choice: Penalized Welfare Maximization Econometrica (IF 3.992) Pub Date : 2021-03-22 Eric Mbakop, Max Tabord‐Meehan
This paper studies a penalized statistical decision rule for the treatment assignment problem. Consider the setting of a utilitarian policy maker who must use sample data to allocate a binary treatment to members of a population, based on their observable characteristics. We model this problem as a statistical decision problem where the policy maker must choose a subset of the covariate space to assign
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Errors in the Dependent Variable of Quantile Regression Models Econometrica (IF 3.992) Pub Date : 2021-03-22 Jerry Hausman, Haoyang Liu, Ye Luo, Christopher Palmer
We study the consequences of measurement error in the dependent variable of random‐coefficients models, focusing on the particular case of quantile regression. The popular quantile regression estimator of Koenker and Bassett (1978) is biased if there is an additive error term. Approaching this problem as an errors‐in‐variables problem where the dependent variable suffers from classical measurement
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Quantile Factor Models Econometrica (IF 3.992) Pub Date : 2021-03-22 Liang Chen, Juan J. Dolado, Jesús Gonzalo
Quantile factor models (QFM) represent a new class of factor models for high‐dimensional panel data. Unlike approximate factor models (AFM), which only extract mean factors, QFM also allow unobserved factors to shift other relevant parts of the distributions of observables. We propose a quantile regression approach, labeled Quantile Factor Analysis (QFA), to consistently estimate all the quantile‐dependent
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Local Projections and VARs Estimate the Same Impulse Responses Econometrica (IF 3.992) Pub Date : 2021-03-22 Mikkel Plagborg‐Møller, Christian K. Wolf
We prove that local projections (LPs) and Vector Autoregressions (VARs) estimate the same impulse responses. This nonparametric result only requires unrestricted lag structures. We discuss several implications: (i) LP and VAR estimators are not conceptually separate procedures; instead, they are simply two dimension reduction techniques with common estimand but different finite‐sample properties. (ii)
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Intergenerational Mobility in Africa Econometrica (IF 3.992) Pub Date : 2021-01-15 Alberto Alesina, Sebastian Hohmann, Stelios Michalopoulos, Elias Papaioannou
We examine intergenerational mobility (IM) in educational attainment in Africa since independence using census data. First, we map IM across 27 countries and more than 2800 regions, documenting wide cross‐country and especially within‐country heterogeneity. Inertia looms large as differences in the literacy of the old generation explain about half of the observed spatial disparities in IM. The rural‐urban
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Equilibrium Allocations Under Alternative Waitlist Designs: Evidence From Deceased Donor Kidneys Econometrica (IF 3.992) Pub Date : 2021-01-15 Nikhil Agarwal, Itai Ashlagi, Michael A. Rees, Paulo Somaini, Daniel Waldinger
Waitlists are often used to ration scarce resources, but the trade‐offs in designing these mechanisms depend on agents' preferences. We study equilibrium allocations under alternative designs for the deceased donor kidney waitlist. We model the decision to accept an organ or wait for a preferable one as an optimal stopping problem and estimate preferences using administrative data from the New York
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A Preferred‐Habitat Model of the Term Structure of Interest Rates Econometrica (IF 3.992) Pub Date : 2021-01-15 Dimitri Vayanos, Jean‐Luc Vila
We model the term structure of interest rates that results from the interaction between investors with preferences for specific maturities and risk‐averse arbitrageurs. Shocks to the short rate are transmitted to long rates through arbitrageurs' carry trades. Arbitrageurs earn rents from transmitting the shocks through bond risk premia that relate positively to the slope of the term structure. When
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Adaptive Treatment Assignment in Experiments for Policy Choice Econometrica (IF 3.992) Pub Date : 2021-01-15 Maximilian Kasy, Anja Sautmann
Standard experimental designs are geared toward point estimation and hypothesis testing, while bandit algorithms are geared toward in‐sample outcomes. Here, we instead consider treatment assignment in an experiment with several waves for choosing the best among a set of possible policies (treatments) at the end of the experiment. We propose a computationally tractable assignment algorithm that we call
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Policy Learning With Observational Data Econometrica (IF 3.992) Pub Date : 2021-01-15 Susan Athey, Stefan Wager
In many areas, practitioners seek to use observational data to learn a treatment assignment policy that satisfies application‐specific constraints, such as budget, fairness, simplicity, or other functional form constraints. For example, policies may be restricted to take the form of decision trees based on a limited set of easily observable individual characteristics. We propose a new approach to this
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Instability of Centralized Markets Econometrica (IF 3.992) Pub Date : 2021-01-15 Ahmad Peivandi, Rakesh V. Vohra
Centralized markets reduce search for buyers and sellers. Their “thickness” increases the chance of order execution at nearly competitive prices. In spite of the incentives to consolidate, some markets, securities markets and on‐line advertising being the most notable, are fragmented into multiple trading venues. We argue that fragmentation is an inevitable feature of any centralized market except
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Deep Neural Networks for Estimation and Inference Econometrica (IF 3.992) Pub Date : 2021-01-15 Max H. Farrell, Tengyuan Liang, Sanjog Misra
We study deep neural networks and their use in semiparametric inference. We establish novel nonasymptotic high probability bounds for deep feedforward neural nets. These deliver rates of convergence that are sufficiently fast (in some cases minimax optimal) to allow us to establish valid second‐step inference after first‐step estimation with deep learning, a result also new to the literature. Our nonasymptotic
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The “New” Economics of Trade Agreements: From Trade Liberalization to Regulatory Convergence? Econometrica (IF 3.992) Pub Date : 2021-01-15 Gene M. Grossman, Phillip McCalman, Robert W. Staiger
What incentives do governments have to negotiate trade agreements that constrain their domestic regulatory policies? We study a model in which firms design products to appeal to local consumer tastes, but their fixed costs increase with the difference between versions of their product destined for different markets. In this setting, firms' profit‐maximizing choices of product attributes are globally
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Policy Persistence and Drift in Organizations Econometrica (IF 3.992) Pub Date : 2021-01-15 Germán Gieczewski
This paper models the evolution of organizations that allow free entry and exit of members, such as cities and trade unions. In each period, current members choose a policy for the organization. Policy changes attract newcomers and drive away dissatisfied members, altering the set of future policymakers. The resulting feedback effects take the organization down a “slippery slope” that converges to
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Media Capture Through Favor Exchange Econometrica (IF 3.992) Pub Date : 2021-01-15 Adam Szeidl, Ferenc Szucs
We use data from Hungary to establish two results about the relationship between the government and the media. (i) We document large advertising favors from the government to connected media, and large corruption coverage favors from connected media to the government. Our empirical strategy exploits sharp reallocations around changes in media ownership and other events to rule out market‐based explanations
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Structural Change With Long‐Run Income and Price Effects Econometrica (IF 3.992) Pub Date : 2021-01-15 Diego Comin, Danial Lashkari, Martí Mestieri
We present a new multi‐sector growth model that features nonhomothetic, constant elasticity of substitution preferences, and accommodates long‐run demand and supply drivers of structural change for an arbitrary number of sectors. The model is consistent with the decline in agriculture, the hump‐shaped evolution of manufacturing, and the rise of services over time. We estimate the demand system derived
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Dynamic Belief Elicitation Econometrica (IF 3.992) Pub Date : 2021-01-15 Christopher P. Chambers, Nicolas S. Lambert
At an initial time, an individual forms a belief about a future random outcome. As time passes, the individual may obtain, privately or subjectively, further information, until the outcome is eventually revealed. How can a protocol be devised that induces the individual, as a strict best response, to reveal at the outset his prior assessment of both the final outcome and the information flows he anticipates
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A Practical Guide to Updating Beliefs From Contradictory Evidence Econometrica (IF 3.992) Pub Date : 2021-01-15 Evan Sadler
We often make high stakes choices based on complex information that we have no way to verify. Careful Bayesian reasoning—assessing every reason why a claim could be false or misleading—is not feasible, so we necessarily act on faith: we trust certain sources and treat claims as if they were direct observations of payoff relevant events. This creates a challenge when trusted sources conflict: Practically
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Nonparametric Analysis of Random Utility Models: Computational Tools for Statistical Testing Econometrica (IF 3.992) Pub Date : 2021-01-15 Bart Smeulders, Laurens Cherchye, Bram De Rock
Kitamura and Stoye (2018) recently proposed a nonparametric statistical test for random utility models of consumer behavior. The test is formulated in terms of linear inequality constraints and a quadratic objective function. While the nonparametric test is conceptually appealing, its practical implementation is computationally challenging. In this paper, we develop a column generation approach to
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The Empirical Content of Binary Choice Models Econometrica (IF 3.992) Pub Date : 2021-01-15 Debopam Bhattacharya
An important goal of empirical demand analysis is choice and welfare prediction on counterfactual budget sets arising from potential policy interventions. Such predictions are more credible when made without arbitrary functional‐form/distributional assumptions, and instead based solely on economic rationality, that is, that choice is consistent with utility maximization by a heterogeneous population
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From Blackwell Dominance in Large Samples to Rényi Divergences and Back Again Econometrica (IF 3.992) Pub Date : 2021-01-15 Xiaosheng Mu, Luciano Pomatto, Philipp Strack, Omer Tamuz
We study repeated independent Blackwell experiments; standard examples include drawing multiple samples from a population, or performing a measurement in different locations. In the baseline setting of a binary state of nature, we compare experiments in terms of their informativeness in large samples. Addressing a question due to Blackwell (1951), we show that generically an experiment is more informative
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On the Informativeness of Descriptive Statistics for Structural Estimates Econometrica (IF 3.992) Pub Date : 2020-11-20 Isaiah Andrews, Matthew Gentzkow, Jesse M. Shapiro
We propose a way to formalize the relationship between descriptive analysis and structural estimation. A researcher reports an estimate ĉ of a structural quantity of interest c that is exactly or asymptotically unbiased under some base model. The researcher also reports descriptive statistics that estimate features γ of the distribution of the data that are related to c under the base model. A reader
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Misinterpreting Others and the Fragility of Social Learning Econometrica (IF 3.992) Pub Date : 2020-11-20 Mira Frick, Ryota Iijima, Yuhta Ishii