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The adoption, diffusion & categorical ambiguity trifecta of social robots in e-health – Insights from healthcare professionals Futures (IF 2.769) Pub Date : 2021-04-08 David E. Kalisz, Insaf Khelladi, Sylvaine Castellano, Rossella Sorio
Social robots are artificial agents communicating in a human-like way. These assistive technologies are surging particularly to address personal healthcare shortages while allowing aging people to stay in their homes. Social robots belong to a rapidly changing AI industry. Such innovation may adopt different diffusion and adoption processes due to the categorical ambiguity of these products; their
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Embedding imaginaries- electric vehicles in Sweden's fossil fuel free future Futures (IF 2.769) Pub Date : 2021-03-31 Amelia Mutter
The purpose of this study is to explore the interaction between visions of the future and policy through the analysis of one Swedish policy document, a 2013 government investigation Fossil Fuel Freedom on the Road, and its subsequent policy process. Here, I examine the emergence of a sociotechnical imaginary (Jasanoff & Kim, 2009) that places electric vehicles at the center of a fossil fuel independent
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Empowering upcoming city developers with futures literacy Futures (IF 2.769) Pub Date : 2021-03-24 Saija Toivonen, Anahita Rashidfarokhi, Riikka Kyrö
New types of human capacities will be needed to achieve sustainable futures within our planet's limited boundaries. The capability of futures thinking, i.e., futures literacy is among the required proficiencies. This research explores how engaging in futures studies methods develops the futures literacy of upcoming city developers. Four student test groups, with altogether 373 participants, took part
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Sensemaking and lens-shaping: Identifying citizen contributions to foresight through comparative topic modelling Futures (IF 2.769) Pub Date : 2021-03-23 Aaron B. Rosa, Niklas Gudowsky, Petteri Repo
As foresight activities continue to increase across multiple arenas and types of organizations, the need to develop effective modes of reviewing future-oriented information against long-term goals and policies becomes more pressing. The activities of institutional sensemaking are vital in constructing potential and desired futures, but remain sensitive to organizational culture and ethos, thus raising
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Breaking through the epistemic impasse: Ending homelessness with the invention of ‘functional zero’ in the Anglo-American world Futures (IF 2.769) Pub Date : 2021-03-18 Joshua Evans, Tom Baker
In this article, we examine strategies to ‘end’ homelessness in Anglo-American countries such as the United States, Canada and Australia. In the process, we critically reflect on the shifting terrain of homelessness governance in these ‘liberal’ welfare regimes. Beginning in the early 2000s, municipalities across the United States, and later Canada, reconfigured their homelessness policies around the
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Prospects of a transition to the knowledge economy in Saudi Arabia and Qatar: A critical reflection through the lens of spatial embeddedness and evolutionary governance theory Futures (IF 2.769) Pub Date : 2021-03-18 Abbas Ziafati Bafarasat, Eduardo Oliveira
This paper discusses the pathways to the knowledge economy taken by two countries with abundant fossil-fuel reserves, Saudi Arabia and Qatar. The shift towards a knowledge economy involves a rethinking of the relationships between education, science, learning, production and service delivery. It also involves collectively defined visions or long-term perspectives, a change of economic narratives and
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The interesting case of Prince Vladimir Odoevsky and his speculations on civilization’s trajectories: Early thoughts on omnicide, lunar prospecting, geoengineering, world government & planetary defense Futures (IF 2.769) Pub Date : 2021-03-18 Thomas Moynihan
The interesting and under-appreciated contributions of the 19th century Russian Prince, Vladimir Odoevsky, are explored. Odoevsky provided a number of speculations on the long-term futures and trajectories of human civilization. His case is interesting because he was sensitive to both the potential for technological progress to garner huge benefit, but also the risks it poses to our species. Indeed
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The Social Construction of Futures Futures (IF 2.769) Pub Date : 2021-03-18 Nele Fischer, Sascha Dannenberg
This article examines the role of plausibility in the construction of futures, taking a critical constructionist perspective. Plausibility builds on the intersubjectively constructed coherence to prior knowledges and is understood, in line with constructionist meaning-based approaches, to be grounded in dominant and naturalized conceptions of the present. A re-reading of the ongoing discussions of
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The implications of the Covid-19 pandemic for delivering the Sustainable Development Goals Futures (IF 2.769) Pub Date : 2021-03-06 Richard Fenner, Thomas Cernev
Global responses to COVID-19 will impact on delivery of the 17 Sustainable Development Goals by 2030, creating large uncertainties just at the time efforts need to be accelerated. This paper explores how COVID-19 could impact the success of meeting the targets with priority given to the four ‘foundational’ goals: SDG 1 No Poverty; SDG3 Good Health; SDG 14 Life Below Water and SDG 15 Life on Land as
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The risk of catastrophic climate change: Future energy implications Futures (IF 2.769) Pub Date : 2021-03-09 Patrick Moriarty, Damon Honnery
Increasing discussion is occurring, in both the popular media and scientific research papers, about the risk of catastrophic climate change (CCC). Earth Science researchers have produced evidence that the damage function from ongoing climate change is not linear: damages rise disproportionately with global average temperature increase. This short paper explores the implications of CCC for future energy
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Governance modes and epistemologies of future-oriented vulnerability assessments: Example of a mixed-methods approach Futures (IF 2.769) Pub Date : 2021-02-26 Alexandra Jurgilevich
Vulnerability and risk assessments are one of the most common initial steps in climate change adaptation. Accounting for future vulnerability is necessary, because adaptation is planned for future climate risks. However, future-oriented vulnerability assessments are rare, and methodological and conceptual gaps exist. Particularly, investigating the causes of future vulnerability and understanding the
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The future of the forest-based bioeconomy in selected southeast European countries Futures (IF 2.769) Pub Date : 2021-03-09 Nataša Lovrić, Silvija Krajter Ostoić, Dijana Vuletić, Mirjana Zavodja, Ilija Đorđević, Vladimir Stojanovski, Marta Curman
The study provides insight into the future of the forest-based bioeconomy sector in selected Southeast European (SEE) countries. It elicits experts’ understanding of forest-based bioeconomy, their opinion and level of agreement on future implementation of the bioeconomy concept by 2030/2050, through two-round Delphi. The study also provides the state-of-the-art of the bioeconomy related policies in
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Mind the gap! Backcasting local actors’ climate transition in Hammarby Sjöstad, Stockholm Futures (IF 2.769) Pub Date : 2021-02-11 Petter Olson, Örjan Svane, Charlie Gullström
Climate change calls for rapid and extensive transition worldwide, and citizen empowerment is a key to change at city district level. A backcasting study in Stockholm’s recent brownfield development Hammarby Sjöstad explores this, asking: ‘What must local actors do to reduce citizens’ consumption-based emissions by half till 2030? ‘Individual actors’ transition pathways are explorative and concern
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Back to the future: Old values for a new (more equal) world Futures (IF 2.769) Pub Date : 2021-03-06 Joel Millward-Hopkins
Inequality has become a defining feature of our time and concerns are growing that artificial intelligence, human-enhancement and global ecological breakdown could cause levels to spiral upwards. Although public disapproval of current inequalities is widespread, studies also show that people don’t desire equality, but prefer ‘fair’, still significant inequalities. Here, I argue these preferences are
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W(h)ither away architecture? Urban futures between plausibility and ambiguity Futures (IF 2.769) Pub Date : 2021-01-30 Giorgia Aquilar
One of the recurring dreams in the theories and practices of architecture is to see predictions actualized. However, visions rarely work out exactly as intended. Against this incongruity, this paper positions its argument between the need to envision realizable futures for the built environment and its inhabitants, and the relative unpredictability of the effects of their mutual interaction. In the
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Resilient Power: A home-based electricity generation and storage solution for the medically vulnerable during climate-induced power outages Futures (IF 2.769) Pub Date : 2021-02-18 Marriele Mango, Joan A. Casey, Diana Hernández
Climate-related power outages have increasingly compromised the lives and well-being of medically vulnerable populations. For the millions reliant on electricity for home medical equipment, even short-term power outages can lead to a potentially life-threatening situation. Society’s most vulnerable populations— elders, the ill, and the poor—face the greatest risks. Yet, technologies that provide backup
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Reinvention paths and reinvention paradox: Strategic change in Western Newfoundland communities Futures (IF 2.769) Pub Date : 2021-02-22 Kristof Van Assche, Monica Gruezmacher, Kelly Vodden, Ryan Gibson, Leith Deacon
We draw on research in Western Newfoundland (Canada) to investigate the possibilities and limits of community reinvention, defined as radical change in the nature of the community, as perceived by local residents. Community reinvention is understood as an extreme form of strategic change in communities, one typically embraced under extreme circumstances. As such, reinvention offers a privileged vantage
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Deriving new anticipation-based policy instruments for attracting research and development and innovation in global value chains to Europe Futures (IF 2.769) Pub Date : 2021-02-18 Norbert Malanowski, Alexander Tübke, Mafini Dosso, Lesley Potters
In this paper, we discuss new anticipation-based policy instruments to improve the attractiveness of Europe for innovative activities in a world of accelerating innovation. The case studies and interviews with company representatives which we collected in relation to developments in Global Value Chains (GVC) show a high level of interest in these new anticipatory policy instruments. Since the companies
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Applying pedagogical theories to understand learning in participatory scenario planning Futures (IF 2.769) Pub Date : 2021-02-19 Sam Poskitt, Kerry Ann Waylen, Andrew Ainslie
Participatory scenario planning (PSP) is widely used by researchers and practitioners working towards social-ecological resilience, with the expectation that it can encourage learning. However, thus far there is a lack of theoretically informed analysis regarding how PSP may support learning in this context. In this paper we present a novel conceptual framework, which highlights how learning can arise
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Anticipatory study for identifying the key influential factors of the biogas system in Germany contributing to the energy system of 2050 Futures (IF 2.769) Pub Date : 2021-01-28 Martín Rojas Arboleda, Alexandra Pfeiffer, Alberto Bezama, Daniela Thrän
Biogas currently plays an important role in the German energy mix - mainly as a way to produce electricity; but will this still be the case in 2050? This paper addresses this question by studying the system’s future to better understand the next actions it should take in the present. It aims to determine the key influential factors in the evolution of the biogas system with the goal of understanding
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Digital futures of small businesses and entrepreneurial opportunity Futures (IF 2.769) Pub Date : 2021-02-22 Darja Reuschke, Colin Mason, Stephen Syrett
This introduction to the Special Issue discusses the status quo of the literature on digital entrepreneurship and small business highlighting the neglect of a significant and growing segment of the small business sector whose futures have remained under-researched: self-employed workers and freelancers who run one-person or micro-businesses and home-based businesses that operate largely or exclusively
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Strategy for collectives and common goods Futures (IF 2.769) Pub Date : 2021-02-22 Kristof Van Assche, Gert Verschraegen, Monica Gruezmacher
We investigate the nature and potential of strategy in governance and emphasize the importance of understanding strategy in its (potential) relations to long-term perspectives or narratives about the long term. Strategy is understood as both a narrative and an institution itself. Narratives about the long term, both inside and outside the sphere of governance, have to be mapped and acknowledged. This
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Contextual insight as an antecedent to strategic foresight Futures (IF 2.769) Pub Date : 2021-02-22 Emmanuel Mastio, Ken Dovey
This conceptual paper responds to the call by Ahlqvist and Uotila (2020) for review of the philosophical assumptions that frame the theorization of the practice of strategic foresight. Challenging the ontological and epistemological assumptions that underpin the dominant (positivist) paradigm, their interpretivist perspective offers an alternative set of assumptions on which to frame the practice of
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Futures of autonomous flight: Using a collaborative storytelling game to assess anticipatory assumptions Futures (IF 2.769) Pub Date : 2020-12-25 Olivia Belton, Sarah Dillon
The passenger aviation industry has embraced electronic automation. Fully autonomous passenger flight is a near-future technical possibility, but questions remain regarding how potential air travellers might receive such a technological leap. This paper contributes to and expands the existing literature on public perceptions of autonomous flight, presenting the results of an exploratory study of non-expert
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Acceptability of radical consumption policies – Utilising futures consciousness to understand elite preferences Futures (IF 2.769) Pub Date : 2021-02-15 Sanna Ahvenharju
Future consciousness is typically considered an essential feature of good policy-making and a prerequisite for foresight processes, radical innovations and game-changing shifts in policy. The styles of future thinking have, however, rarely been studied among elite members. This paper presents a small n case study of 18 Finnish elite members. It compares their acceptance of radical policy choices and
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Individual futures consciousness: Psychology behind the five-dimensional Futures Consciousness scale Futures (IF 2.769) Pub Date : 2021-02-09 Sanna Ahvenharju, Fanny Lalot, Matti Minkkinen, Alain Quiamzade
Future consciousness refers to the human capacity to understand, anticipate, prepare for, and embrace the future. The Futures Consciousness Scale has recently been developed to enable empirical study of the phenomenon among individuals. The scale is based on a five-dimensional model of Futures Consciousness (FC) that encompasses: i) Time Perspective, ii) Agency Beliefs, iii) Openness to Alternatives
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Foresight and design fictions meet at a policy lab: An experimentation approach in public sector innovation Futures (IF 2.769) Pub Date : 2021-02-11 Alexandre Pólvora, Susana Nascimento
This paper depicts a theoretical and methodological experimentation approach developed at the EU Policy Lab of the European Commission’s Joint Research Centre. The approach is first framed by its larger institutional context and positioned in a back-end space of public sector innovation. With an internal and self-reflexive departure point, our purpose is to outline it as catalyst of future-oriented
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Small firms as agents of sustainable change Futures (IF 2.769) Pub Date : 2021-01-28 I. Nesterova
For the majority of human existence as hunter-gatherers people managed to co-exist with nature. Historically, the impact of human economy on the environment, compared to the impact of natural forces, was small. Progression of human economies towards agriculture and industrial, fossil fuel powered, and growth orientated economies saw humanity transitioning to a state of environmental destruction and
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Assessing climate change’s contribution to global catastrophic risk Futures (IF 2.769) Pub Date : 2021-01-13 S.J. Beard, Lauren Holt, Asaf Tzachor, Luke Kemp, Shahar Avin, Phil Torres, Haydn Belfield
Many have claimed that climate change is an imminent threat to humanity, but there is no way to verify such claims. This is concerning, especially given the prominence of some of these claims and the fact that they are confused with other well verified and settled aspects of climate science. This paper seeks to build an analytical framework to help explore climate change’s contribution to Global Catastrophic
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Shaping future perspectives in policy advice under deep, long-term uncertainty. The case of the Dutch Delta Committee Futures (IF 2.769) Pub Date : 2021-01-23 S.A. Van 't Klooster, S.A. Veenman
Since society is facing some major transformations, it is essential to understand how long-term perspectives in an uncertain context are shaped and the conditions and strategies used to enable their materialisation (Van Assche et al., this issue). This paper analyses how the future perspective of the Dutch Delta Committee amidst deep (longterm) uncertainty was shaped. It focusses on (the interrelation
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Gaps between foresight and policy: The US “Global Trends Report” series case study Futures (IF 2.769) Pub Date : 2021-01-30 Leopold Schmertzing
This article tries to answer two interlinked questions regarding the Global Trends Report (GTR) series, a successful and well-known example of security policy government foresight: Where and what are the gaps in the transfer of its insight to the policy realm, and who has a good chance of being influenced by its insight and why. The insight produced by the GTR reached its final consumers – the US president
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Beyond the lifetime of organizations: A framework for multi-generational goal survival in the ecology of goals Futures (IF 2.769) Pub Date : 2021-01-23 Samuel A. Kurtz
The completion of initiatives designed to address wicked problems often requires the participation of a variety of actors spanning multiple generations of both individuals and organizations. Until now, frameworks for addressing problems and articulating the sustainability of goals related to overcoming them have yet to adequately account for the timespans required for addressing such problems; particularly