Social robots are artificial agents communicating in a human-like way. These assistive technologies are surging particularly to address personal healthcare shortages while allowing aging people to stay in their homes. Social robots belong to a rapidly changing AI industry. Such innovation may adopt different diffusion and adoption processes due to the categorical ambiguity of these products; their

The purpose of this study is to explore the interaction between visions of the future and policy through the analysis of one Swedish policy document, a 2013 government investigation Fossil Fuel Freedom on the Road, and its subsequent policy process. Here, I examine the emergence of a sociotechnical imaginary (Jasanoff & Kim, 2009) that places electric vehicles at the center of a fossil fuel independent

New types of human capacities will be needed to achieve sustainable futures within our planet's limited boundaries. The capability of futures thinking, i.e., futures literacy is among the required proficiencies. This research explores how engaging in futures studies methods develops the futures literacy of upcoming city developers. Four student test groups, with altogether 373 participants, took part

As foresight activities continue to increase across multiple arenas and types of organizations, the need to develop effective modes of reviewing future-oriented information against long-term goals and policies becomes more pressing. The activities of institutional sensemaking are vital in constructing potential and desired futures, but remain sensitive to organizational culture and ethos, thus raising

In this article, we examine strategies to ‘end’ homelessness in Anglo-American countries such as the United States, Canada and Australia. In the process, we critically reflect on the shifting terrain of homelessness governance in these ‘liberal’ welfare regimes. Beginning in the early 2000s, municipalities across the United States, and later Canada, reconfigured their homelessness policies around the

This paper discusses the pathways to the knowledge economy taken by two countries with abundant fossil-fuel reserves, Saudi Arabia and Qatar. The shift towards a knowledge economy involves a rethinking of the relationships between education, science, learning, production and service delivery. It also involves collectively defined visions or long-term perspectives, a change of economic narratives and

The interesting and under-appreciated contributions of the 19th century Russian Prince, Vladimir Odoevsky, are explored. Odoevsky provided a number of speculations on the long-term futures and trajectories of human civilization. His case is interesting because he was sensitive to both the potential for technological progress to garner huge benefit, but also the risks it poses to our species. Indeed

This article examines the role of plausibility in the construction of futures, taking a critical constructionist perspective. Plausibility builds on the intersubjectively constructed coherence to prior knowledges and is understood, in line with constructionist meaning-based approaches, to be grounded in dominant and naturalized conceptions of the present. A re-reading of the ongoing discussions of

Global responses to COVID-19 will impact on delivery of the 17 Sustainable Development Goals by 2030, creating large uncertainties just at the time efforts need to be accelerated. This paper explores how COVID-19 could impact the success of meeting the targets with priority given to the four ‘foundational’ goals: SDG 1 No Poverty; SDG3 Good Health; SDG 14 Life Below Water and SDG 15 Life on Land as

Increasing discussion is occurring, in both the popular media and scientific research papers, about the risk of catastrophic climate change (CCC). Earth Science researchers have produced evidence that the damage function from ongoing climate change is not linear: damages rise disproportionately with global average temperature increase. This short paper explores the implications of CCC for future energy

Vulnerability and risk assessments are one of the most common initial steps in climate change adaptation. Accounting for future vulnerability is necessary, because adaptation is planned for future climate risks. However, future-oriented vulnerability assessments are rare, and methodological and conceptual gaps exist. Particularly, investigating the causes of future vulnerability and understanding the

The study provides insight into the future of the forest-based bioeconomy sector in selected Southeast European (SEE) countries. It elicits experts’ understanding of forest-based bioeconomy, their opinion and level of agreement on future implementation of the bioeconomy concept by 2030/2050, through two-round Delphi. The study also provides the state-of-the-art of the bioeconomy related policies in

Climate change calls for rapid and extensive transition worldwide, and citizen empowerment is a key to change at city district level. A backcasting study in Stockholm’s recent brownfield development Hammarby Sjöstad explores this, asking: ‘What must local actors do to reduce citizens’ consumption-based emissions by half till 2030? ‘Individual actors’ transition pathways are explorative and concern

Inequality has become a defining feature of our time and concerns are growing that artificial intelligence, human-enhancement and global ecological breakdown could cause levels to spiral upwards. Although public disapproval of current inequalities is widespread, studies also show that people don’t desire equality, but prefer ‘fair’, still significant inequalities. Here, I argue these preferences are

One of the recurring dreams in the theories and practices of architecture is to see predictions actualized. However, visions rarely work out exactly as intended. Against this incongruity, this paper positions its argument between the need to envision realizable futures for the built environment and its inhabitants, and the relative unpredictability of the effects of their mutual interaction. In the

Climate-related power outages have increasingly compromised the lives and well-being of medically vulnerable populations. For the millions reliant on electricity for home medical equipment, even short-term power outages can lead to a potentially life-threatening situation. Society’s most vulnerable populations— elders, the ill, and the poor—face the greatest risks. Yet, technologies that provide backup

We draw on research in Western Newfoundland (Canada) to investigate the possibilities and limits of community reinvention, defined as radical change in the nature of the community, as perceived by local residents. Community reinvention is understood as an extreme form of strategic change in communities, one typically embraced under extreme circumstances. As such, reinvention offers a privileged vantage

In this paper, we discuss new anticipation-based policy instruments to improve the attractiveness of Europe for innovative activities in a world of accelerating innovation. The case studies and interviews with company representatives which we collected in relation to developments in Global Value Chains (GVC) show a high level of interest in these new anticipatory policy instruments. Since the companies

Participatory scenario planning (PSP) is widely used by researchers and practitioners working towards social-ecological resilience, with the expectation that it can encourage learning. However, thus far there is a lack of theoretically informed analysis regarding how PSP may support learning in this context. In this paper we present a novel conceptual framework, which highlights how learning can arise

Biogas currently plays an important role in the German energy mix - mainly as a way to produce electricity; but will this still be the case in 2050? This paper addresses this question by studying the system’s future to better understand the next actions it should take in the present. It aims to determine the key influential factors in the evolution of the biogas system with the goal of understanding

This introduction to the Special Issue discusses the status quo of the literature on digital entrepreneurship and small business highlighting the neglect of a significant and growing segment of the small business sector whose futures have remained under-researched: self-employed workers and freelancers who run one-person or micro-businesses and home-based businesses that operate largely or exclusively

We investigate the nature and potential of strategy in governance and emphasize the importance of understanding strategy in its (potential) relations to long-term perspectives or narratives about the long term. Strategy is understood as both a narrative and an institution itself. Narratives about the long term, both inside and outside the sphere of governance, have to be mapped and acknowledged. This

This conceptual paper responds to the call by Ahlqvist and Uotila (2020) for review of the philosophical assumptions that frame the theorization of the practice of strategic foresight. Challenging the ontological and epistemological assumptions that underpin the dominant (positivist) paradigm, their interpretivist perspective offers an alternative set of assumptions on which to frame the practice of

The passenger aviation industry has embraced electronic automation. Fully autonomous passenger flight is a near-future technical possibility, but questions remain regarding how potential air travellers might receive such a technological leap. This paper contributes to and expands the existing literature on public perceptions of autonomous flight, presenting the results of an exploratory study of non-expert

Future consciousness is typically considered an essential feature of good policy-making and a prerequisite for foresight processes, radical innovations and game-changing shifts in policy. The styles of future thinking have, however, rarely been studied among elite members. This paper presents a small n case study of 18 Finnish elite members. It compares their acceptance of radical policy choices and

Future consciousness refers to the human capacity to understand, anticipate, prepare for, and embrace the future. The Futures Consciousness Scale has recently been developed to enable empirical study of the phenomenon among individuals. The scale is based on a five-dimensional model of Futures Consciousness (FC) that encompasses: i) Time Perspective, ii) Agency Beliefs, iii) Openness to Alternatives

This paper depicts a theoretical and methodological experimentation approach developed at the EU Policy Lab of the European Commission’s Joint Research Centre. The approach is first framed by its larger institutional context and positioned in a back-end space of public sector innovation. With an internal and self-reflexive departure point, our purpose is to outline it as catalyst of future-oriented

For the majority of human existence as hunter-gatherers people managed to co-exist with nature. Historically, the impact of human economy on the environment, compared to the impact of natural forces, was small. Progression of human economies towards agriculture and industrial, fossil fuel powered, and growth orientated economies saw humanity transitioning to a state of environmental destruction and

Many have claimed that climate change is an imminent threat to humanity, but there is no way to verify such claims. This is concerning, especially given the prominence of some of these claims and the fact that they are confused with other well verified and settled aspects of climate science. This paper seeks to build an analytical framework to help explore climate change’s contribution to Global Catastrophic

Since society is facing some major transformations, it is essential to understand how long-term perspectives in an uncertain context are shaped and the conditions and strategies used to enable their materialisation (Van Assche et al., this issue). This paper analyses how the future perspective of the Dutch Delta Committee amidst deep (longterm) uncertainty was shaped. It focusses on (the interrelation

This article tries to answer two interlinked questions regarding the Global Trends Report (GTR) series, a successful and well-known example of security policy government foresight: Where and what are the gaps in the transfer of its insight to the policy realm, and who has a good chance of being influenced by its insight and why. The insight produced by the GTR reached its final consumers – the US president

The completion of initiatives designed to address wicked problems often requires the participation of a variety of actors spanning multiple generations of both individuals and organizations. Until now, frameworks for addressing problems and articulating the sustainability of goals related to overcoming them have yet to adequately account for the timespans required for addressing such problems; particularly