KEVIN DONOVAN. (2020), “The Equilibrium Impact of Agricultural Risk on Intermediate Inputs and Aggregate Productivity” Review of Economic Studies, doi:10.1093/restud/rdaa084.

AbstractThe proportion of UK people with university degrees tripled between 1993 and 2015. However, over the same period the time trend in the college wage premium has been extraordinarily flat. We show that these patterns cannot be explained by composition changes. Instead, we present a model in which firms choose between centralized and decentralized organizational forms and demonstrate that it can

We show that the creation of the first integrated multi-modal pan-European transport network during Roman times influences economic integration over two millennia. Drawing on spatially highly disaggregated data on excavated Roman ceramics, we document that contemporary interregional trade was influenced by connectivity within the network. Today, these connectivity differentials continue to influence

AbstractWe estimate the causal real economic effects of a randomized anti-corruption crackdown on local governments in Brazil using rich micro-data on corruption and firms. After anti-corruption audits, municipalities experience an increase in the number of firms concentrated in sectors most dependent on government relationships and public procurement. Through the estimation of geographic spillovers

AbstractAbout half of the change in US non-durable consumption expenditure is due to changes in the products entering households’ consumption basket (the extensive margin). Changes in the basket are driven by fluctuations in the rate at which households add products; removals fluctuate little. These patterns reflect that, in response to income increases, households adopt consumer products already available

How does the arrival of a new minority group affect the social acceptance and outcomes of existing minorities? We study this question in the context of the First Great Migration. Between 1915 and 1930, 1.5 million African Americans moved from the US South to Northern urban centers, which were home to millions of European immigrants arrived in previous decades. We formalize and empirically test the

AbstractThis paper proposes a test for the conditional superior predictive ability (CSPA) of a family of forecasting methods with respect to a benchmark. The test is functional in nature: Under the null hypothesis, the benchmark’s conditional expected loss is no more than those of the competitors, uniformly across all conditioning states. By inverting the CSPA tests for a set of benchmarks, we obtain

ALESSANDRO BONATTI AND GONZALO CISTERNAS. (2020), “Consumer Scores and Price Discrimination” Review of Economic Studies, 87(2), 750–791. doi:10.1093/restud/rdz046

AbstractThis paper develops a heterogeneous firm-dynamics model to jointly study firms’ currency debt composition and investment choices. In our model, foreign currency borrowing arises from a dynamic trade-off between exposure to currency risk and growth. The model endogenously generates selection of productive firms into foreign currency borrowing. Among them, firms with high marginal product of

We develop a model where risk-averse workers can costly invest in their skills before matching with heterogenous firms. At the investment stage, workers face multiple sources of risk. They are uncertain about how skilled they will turn out and also about their income shock realizations at the time of employment. We analyze the equilibria of two versions of the model that depend on when uncertainty

We argue theoretically and document empirically that aging leads to greater (industrial) automation, because it creates a shortage of middle-aged workers specializing in manual production tasks. We show that demographic change is associated with greater adoption of robots and other automation technologies across countries and with more robotics-related activities across US commuting zones. We also

This paper argues that an important, yet overlooked, determinant of the government spending multiplier is the direction of the fiscal intervention. Regardless of whether we identify government spending shocks from (i) a narrative approach, or (ii) a timing restriction, we find that the contractionary multiplier —the multiplier associated with a negative shock to government spending— is above 1 and

Many studies use shift-share (or “Bartik”) instruments, which average a set of shocks with exposure share weights. We provide a new econometric framework for shift-share instrumental variable (SSIV) regressions in which identification follows from the quasi-random assignment of shocks, while exposure shares are allowed to be endogenous. The framework is motivated by an equivalence result: the orthogonality

This paper generalizes central results from the theory of (endogenously) directed technical change to settings where technology does not take a labor-augmenting form and with arbitrarily many levels of skill. Building on simple notions of complementarity, the results remain intuitive despite their generality. The developed theory allows to study the endogenous determination of labor-replacing, that

Does the pattern of social connections between individuals matter for macroeconomic outcomes? If so, where do differences in these patterns come from and how large are their effects? Using network analysis tools, we explore how different social network structures affect technology diffusion and thereby a country’s rate of growth. The correlation between high-diffusion networks and income is strongly

AbstractI propose to identify an SVAR, up to shock ordering, using the autocovariance structure of the squared innovations, implied by an arbitrary stochastic process for the shock variances. These higher moments are available without parametric assumptions on the variance process. In contrast, previous approaches exploiting heteroskedasticity rely on the path of innovation covariances, which can only

AbstractWe study the long-term impact of a policy-driven change in childhood nutrition. For this purpose, we evaluate a program that rolled out nutritious school lunches free of charge to all pupils in Swedish primary schools between 1959 and 1969. We estimate the impact of the program on children's economic, educational and health outcomes throughout life. Our results show that the school lunch program

AbstractWe study rules based on instruments vs. targets. Our application is a New Keynesian economy where the central bank has non-contractible information about aggregate demand shocks and cannot commit to policy. Incentives are provided to the central bank via punishment which is socially costly. Instrument-based rules condition incentives on the central bank’s observable choice of policy, whereas

AbstractUnemployment insurance (UI) programs traditionally take the form of a single insurance contract offered to job seekers. In this work, we show that offering a menu of contracts can be welfare improving in the presence of adverse selection and moral hazard. When insurance contracts are composed of (i) a UI payment and (ii) a severance payment paid at the onset of unemployment, offering contracts

We study a class of permutation tests of the randomness of a collection of Bernoulli sequences and their application to analyses of the human tendency to perceive streaks of consecutive successes as overly representative of positive dependence—the hot hand fallacy. In particular, we study permutation tests of the null hypothesis of randomness (i.e., that trials are i.i.d.) based on test statistics

We study a coordination game among agents in a network. The agents choose whether to take action (e.g., adopting a new technology) in an uncertain environment that yields increasing value in the actions of neighbors. We develop an algorithm that fully partitions the network into communities (coordination sets) within which agents have the same propensity to adopt. Our main finding is that a novel measure

We study default effects in the context of a residential electricity-pricing program. We analyze a large-scale randomized controlled trial in which one treatment group was given the option to opt-in to time-varying pricing while another was defaulted into the program but allowed to opt-out. We provide dramatic evidence of a default effect on program participation, consistent with previous research

Using a quantitative model that features technical progress in automation and endogenous skill choice, we show that, given the current U.S. tax system, a sustained fall in automation costs can lead to a massive rise in income inequality. We characterize the optimal tax system in this model. We find that it is optimal to tax robots while the current generations of routine workers, who can no longer

This paper explores the consequences of extremely low real interest rates in a world with integrated but heterogenous capital markets, nominal rigidities and an effective lower bound (a ZLB for simplicity). We establish four main results: (i) At the ZLB, creditor countries export their recession abroad, which we illustrate with a new Metzler diagram in quantities; (ii) Beggar-thy-neighbor currency

We introduce a new model of repeated games in large populations with random matching, overlapping generations, and limited records of past play. We prove that steady-state equilibria exist under general conditions on records. When the updating of a player’s record can depend on the actions of both players in a match, any strictly individually rational action can be supported in a steady-state equilibrium

This paper studies equilibrium dynamics in consumer durable goods markets after aggregate credit shocks. We introduce two novel features into a general-equilibrium model of durable consumption with heterogeneous households facing idiosyncratic income risk and borrowing constraints: (i) indivisible durable goods are vertically differentiated in their quality and (ii) trade on secondary markets at market-clearing

We derive a fully nonlinear optimal income tax schedule in the presence of private insurance. We fill the gap in the literature by studying the optimal tax formula with a comprehensive structure of the private markets—including incomplete markets models— both theoretically and quantitatively. As in the standard taxation literature without private insurance (e.g., Saez (2001)), the optimal tax formula

In most of the developed world, skilled women marry at a lower rate than less skilled ones. We document heterogeneity across countries in how the marriage gap between skilled and unskilled women has evolved over time. As labor market opportunities for women have improved, the marriage gap has been growing in some countries but shrinking in others. We discuss the comparative statics of a theoretical

I develop an approach, which I term narrow thinking, to break the decision maker’s ability to perfectly coordinate her multiple decisions. For a narrow thinker, different decisions are based on different, non-nested, information. I recast this individual decision problem as multiple selves playing an incomplete-information game. The narrow thinker then makes each decision with imperfect knowledge of

We show that helping young job-seekers to signal their skills to employers can generate large and persistent improvements in labour market outcomes. We do this by comparing an intervention that improves the ability to signal skills (the 'job application workshop') to a transport subsidy treatment designed to reduce the cost of job search. We find that in the short-run both interventions have large

In the 1970s and 1980s, the government of Bangladesh, with the support and financing of the United Nations Children’s Fund, promoted the digging of tube wells to