This paper provides an extensive analysis of card spending during the COVID-19 pandemic in Turkey by using weekly aggregated and sectoral credit and debit card spending data from March 2014 to December 2020. At an aggregated level, we show that aggregate demand decreases significantly at the early stages of COVID-19 and seems to reinstate its pre-COVID trend. However, when we include the pre-existing

This study examines the relationship between real domestic sales and real exports for Turkish manufacturing firms. Dynamic panel data estimations based on firm-level data for the period 2004–2014 suggest that the two variables are substitutes. Other factors held constant, we estimate that a 10 percent decline in real domestic sales is associated with around 2.7 percent increase in real exports, on

This study analyses the argument that whether Turkish non-financial firms utilize any informal source of alternative funding during economic uncertainties over the last decade. This study is the first to explore the issue and provide some insights regarding how small and medium-sized enterprises do react to the financial constraint problem in such an economic environment. Both trend analysis and empirical

The existence of the credit derivatives written on the eurobonds such as credit default swaps or asset swaps allows policymakers and investors to monitor the evolvement of credit risk. However, these instruments are mostly available in advanced economies, whereas the market for credit derivatives in emerging market countries, including Turkey, is limited in terms of liquidity and maturity. In this

This study examines the asymmetric relationships between demographic characteristics of labor market variables and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the Turkish economy. Both expansions and recessions are considered in a Markov Switching (MS) model, using quarterly data between 1989 and 2019. Okun’s coefficients are estimated for the different age groups, genders and education levels. The results reveal

Equity crowdfunding has emerged as a new landscape for financing ideas and innovations. While a number of countries has come a long way and developed equity crowdfunding platforms, a number of countries is taking it more slowly. This paper reviews how equity crowdfunding platforms function, the regulatory approaches around the world and academic contributions on signaling, success factors and social

Abstract This paper provides cross-country analysis of local bond market term premia in emerging countries. In order to investigate the role of domestic and global factors in the determination of compensation demanded by investors for their medium and long term fixed income investments, term premia is computed for emerging countries by using methodology adopted in Adrian et al. (2013) . It is found

Abstract The study models the behaviour of the Central Bank of Nigeria. An extended Taylor’s framework that accounted for exchange rate dynamics and political risk factors was adopted. In order to capture both ex-ante and ex-post behaviours of the monetary authority in the country, Markov-Switching Dynamic Regression (MSDR) approach was employed. The period of investigation spanned 1981q1 – 2017q4

Abstract This paper examines asymmetries in the J-curve effects of real exchange rates on Kenya’s trade balance by using panel data for bilateral trade with 30 trading partners. The data covers the period from 2006q1 to 2018q4 and the Pooled Mean Group (PMG) estimation technique, under both the linear and nonlinear ARDL frameworks, is applied. This paper departs from previous studies by using a modified

Abstract Although theories on channels of monetary policy transmission emphasize indirect monetary policy effect on inflation and output, empirical literature is surprisingly rooted in a direct approach. The use of variants of vector autoregression, with theoretical ordering of variables, does not only fail to quantify the indirect effect, but are also fraught with disagreements on identification of

This paper aims to investigate the interaction between monetary and fiscal policies in Turkey. For this purpose, a Bayesian Structural Vector Auto-Regression (SVAR) model with sign and zero restrictions is used. We particularly focus on how the fiscal and monetary policy variables respond to various macroeconomic shocks and whether the type of shocks matters. Our results confirm the importance of nature

This study investigates the evolution of the import content of production and exports in Turkey for the 2002–2018 period. Based on 2002 and 2012 input-output tables and a large data set of production and foreign trade, we estimate the production and imported input use for 20 sectors, mainly from the manufacturing industry. We calculate import requirement ratios, comprising both direct and indirect

Abstract Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) have become one of the most popular passive investment instruments since they bring together the advantages of stocks and mutual funds. As passive investors are more risk averse and sensitive to possible adverse market developments, ETF’s fund flows can provide distinct information in certain periods in comparison with active funds. This study looks at ETF fund

This paper aims to investigate the co-movement between credit growth and gross domestic product (GDP) growth in Turkey over the period January 2004–October 2019. By taking into account alternative credit decomposition and the variations over time and across different frequencies using the wavelet analysis, the results show that: i) GDP growth highly synchronizes with credit growth compared to other

Abstract This study examines the effects of logistics infrastructure on export variety, as measured by the extensive margin. Using finely disaggregated exports data for Turkey’s trade with 174 countries over the period 2007–2017, we decompose gross export flows into the extensive and intensive margins of Turkish exports utilizing the method developed by Hummels and Klenow (2005). Gravity estimates

Abstract After the global financial crisis, it was observed that price stability alone would not ensure financial stability. The new paradigm indeed insists on the inclusion of financial stability as an additional macroeconomic objective. In this context, it is essential to understand how exactly is the new objective of financial stability will be placed in the existing framework. Also, the efficacy

Abstract This paper investigates the labor market consequences of incomplete information about workers’ own job searching process and best occupations fitting to them. A search and learning model is provided in order to analyze these effects. In the model, search outcomes relay information about workers’ job finding abilities and appropriate occupations suited to them, and workers use this information

Abstract Purpose The financing of growth of the firm is quite sensitive to fluctuations in Fund rates. This requires a treatment of Fund rates being subject to structural shifts. This paper examines the impact of threshold Federal Fund Rate (FFR), being a proxy for Federal Reserve policy, on different dimensions of growth of the US firm. The goal is to examine the extent to which shifts in FFR cause

Abstract An increase in the return of an asset in the financial markets may cause the returns of the remaining assets to fluctuate over time because of the arbitrage conditions. This may also create a spillover or contagion between the volatilities of the assets in the financial markets. This study aimed to capture the spillover between financial markets in the Turkish economy and to investigate the

Abstract This paper investigates the impact of macroprudential policies and uncertainty of economic environment on corporate leverage dynamics over the last decade. This is the first study to investigate the impact of macroprudential policies and uncertainty on leverage dynamics of Turkish non-financial firms using firm-level data. We argue in this paper that persistence of uncertainty should be a

Abstract This study investigates the determinants of bank profitability in 23 countries from 2002 to 2016 using the system generalized method of moments. The findings indicate that the number of bank cards issued, the number of automated teller machines (ATMs) and the number of point of sale (POS) terminals can improve bank profitability. Hence, this suggests a need for further expansion of these delivery

Abstract It is a well-established regularity that permanent oil price shocks do not have a permanent effect on the current account deficit. This requires that sub-components of the current account or trade balance will make the necessary adjustments to accommodate the higher energy bill of a country triggered by permanent crude oil price increases. Empirical evidence gathered from Turkey reveals that

Abstract This study examines the impact of trade and financial integration on structural transformation relying on data from 28 countries in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) over the period 1985–2015. Results from our system generalized method of moments (GMM) show that, trade and financial integration significantly spur manufacturing and agricultural sector value additions. However, for the industrial sector

Abstract This study discusses various types of market-based instruments and tries to find which financial instrument is the best in predicting monetary policy expectations for different time horizons in Turkey. Consistent with the existing literature on this subject, we adopt an approach that comes from expectations theory of term structure of interest rates, which implies that short term forward interest

Using a single-sector small open economy real business cycle model with variable capital utilization, imported inputs, and working capital constraint, I show that strong countercyclicality of net exports observed in emerging market economies is to a large extent due to the technology in which production relies on imported inputs. The easier domestic inputs can be substituted for imported inputs, the

Abstract In this paper, we examine the labour market properties of business cycle fluctuations for a group of 15 emerging market economies (EMEs) and the US using annual data from 1970 to 2013. We find that on average, the hours worked and employment volatility (relative to output volatility) are lower, while the volatility of productivity and wages are 2–3 times higher in EMEs compared to the US.

Abstract Noticing the visible hand of state capitalism in global production and value chain system, this study examines the outward foreign direct investment strategy of sovereign wealth funds (SWFs). Leveraging theoretical insights from the conventional political economy and international business literature, the study first conceptualizes a yield institutions-based view—marketization to sustainable

The degree and quality of job mobility is an important factor of optimal allocation of resources and growth in an economy. Job mobility facilitates productive employer-employee matches. In that respect, job mobility allows employees to work in industries which suit their skills and enables earning gains. It also supports industry level productivity gains by providing shift of employment from less productive

Abstract Some small open Least Income Countries embarked on rapid accumulation of foreign reserves in the wake of volatile capital inflows. Foreign reserve accumulation is one way of managing volatile capital flows. However, rapid and persistent accumulation is not only costly, but potentially distort the domestic financial markets, especially when it is financed by sterilisation. This study investigates

Abstract Financial inclusion might bring huge amounts of income into the global economy, which creates different opportunities and challenges for countries. As people become more financially included and their incomes grow over time, this might in turn increase their tax contributions to the government. Thus, this paper seeks an answer to the primary question of whether the changes in tax revenue is

Abstract The aim of this paper is to find out whether there is exuberance in regional house prices in Turkey. For this purpose, we analyze real hedonic house prices and price to rent ratios countrywide as well as for 26 geographic regions at the NUTS2 level from January 2010 to January 2019. We perform the right-tailed unit root testing procedures developed by Phillips et al. (2015) and Phillips and