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Examining omitted variable bias in anchoring premium estimates: Evidence based on assessed value Real Estate Economics (IF 1.585) Pub Date : 2021-03-20 Tingyu Zhou, John M Clapp, Ran Lu‐Andrews
A new assessed value approach is proposed to control for the amount of persistent unobserved quality. The approach to a well‐established two‐stage framework developed by Genesove and Mayer (GM, 2001) is applied, who test the effect of an expected loss on final transaction prices in the housing market. It is shown that the assessed value model effectively mitigates the omitted variable bias and produces
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Offices scarce but housing scarcer: Estimating the premium for London office conversions Real Estate Economics (IF 1.585) Pub Date : 2021-03-11 Paul Charles Cheshire, Katerina Kaimakamis
British planning is among the most restrictive in the world and has been restrictive for longer than elsewhere. Restrictive regulation substantially increases the costs of office space and, especially in London, increases the house prices. Partly in response to the crisis in housing supply an automatic right to convert offices to residential use was introduced in 2013. Some major office locations in
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Risk aversion and urban land development options Real Estate Economics (IF 1.585) Pub Date : 2021-03-08 Gang‐Zhi Fan, Ming Pu, Tien Foo Sing, Xiaoyu Zhang
This study empirically tests the volatility effects on land development options using the Singapore's government land sales data from 1996 to 2018. We find that development land option premiums increase by 5% on average with one standard deviation increase in conditional volatility, which is consistent with the prediction of the standard real options model. However, the high volatility effects on development
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Second‐home buying and the housing boom and bust Real Estate Economics (IF 1.585) Pub Date : 2021-02-23 Daniel I. García
I estimate the effects of second‐home buying (existing homeowners acquiring additional properties) on the housing boom and bust, by constructing a new measure and using a new identification strategy based on the rise in out‐of‐town demand for second homes in vacation areas during the housing boom. Areas with plausibly exogenous higher second‐home buying experienced a sharper boom and bust: faster growth
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Disentangling the effect of home ownership on household stockholdings: Evidence from Japanese micro data Real Estate Economics (IF 1.585) Pub Date : 2021-02-15 Tokuo Iwaisako, Arito Ono, Amane Saito, Hidenobu Tokuda
This study examines the effects of home ownership on household stockholdings using Japanese microdata. To disentangle the effect of property value and mortgage debt on households’ stockholdings as a share of financial assets, we use current and time‐of‐purchase house price indices as instruments. Our estimates suggest that an exogenous increase in property value is associated with an increase in stockholdings
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Is competition a cure for confusion? Evidence from the residential mortgage market Real Estate Economics (IF 1.585) Pub Date : 2021-01-16 Steven Malliaris, Daniel A. Rettl, Ruchi Singh
Using the National Survey of Mortgage Originations, we document that borrowers who are more financially sophisticated (measured by their self‐reported understanding of the mortgage process) and more exposed to competition (measured by the number of lenders they considered) pay lower mortgage rate spreads. Yet, competition is not a substitute for sophistication: the benefits of competition accrue to
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Diffused effort, asset heterogeneity, and real estate brokerage Real Estate Economics (IF 1.585) Pub Date : 2021-01-31 Zhaohui Li, Qiang Li, Hua Sun, Li Sun
We generalize the classic Williams (1998, Review of Financial Studies, 11, 239–280) brokerage model by introducing diffused effort and asset heterogeneity. The term “diffused effort” refers to the fact that an agent can cross‐utilize effort spending on one listing to another . One counterintuitive finding in Williams' paper is the absence of the agency problem . As a special case in our model, we recover
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Jumbo rates below conforming rates: When did this happen and why? Real Estate Economics (IF 1.585) Pub Date : 2020-10-16 Lynn M. Fisher, Mike Fratantoni, Stephen D. Oliner, Tobias J. Peter
We show that jumbo mortgage rates were above conforming rates before the financial crisis, consistent with previous studies, and that the spread between them widened during the crisis. However, the spread turned negative in 2013 and remained so through 2019, with jumbo rates about a quarter percentage point below conforming rates. A rise in the government‐sponsored enterprise (GSE) guarantee fees appears
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Decompositions of house price distributions over time: The rise and fall of Tokyo house prices Real Estate Economics (IF 1.585) Pub Date : 2020-10-29 Daniel McMillen, Chihiro Shimizu
We use recentered influence function regressions to decompose the differences in the distribution of sales prices across five stages of the business cycle in Tokyo for 1986–2016. Tokyo's housing market went through a period of rapid appreciation in prices during this time, followed by a long period of decline and a more recent increase. We find that a substantial portion of the change in the distribution
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Affiliation bias in the online market for rental accommodation Real Estate Economics (IF 1.585) Pub Date : 2020-10-26 Barbara A. Bliss, Joseph Engelberg, Mitch Warachka
We find evidence of taste‐based discrimination against rival affiliations in the online market for rental accommodation. Airbnb hosts in college towns increase their listing prices more than hotels on home football games against rival teams. By setting listing prices too high as a result of their affiliation bias against rival fans, hosts experience a 30% reduction in rental income. The overestimation
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There is no place like home: Information asymmetries, local asset concentration, and portfolio returns Real Estate Economics (IF 1.585) Pub Date : 2020-10-02 David C. Ling, Andy Naranjo, Benjamin Scheick
Using a unique setting with significant cross‐market information asymmetries and a large sample of individual commercial property holdings, we provide robust evidence showing that local information plays a significant role in the linkage between local asset concentrations and return outperformance. We further document a significant positive relation between local asset concentration and portfolio returns
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FEAR Index, city characteristics, and housing returns Real Estate Economics (IF 1.585) Pub Date : 2020-08-29 Ramya Rajajagadeesan Aroul, Sanjiv Sabherwal, Sergiy Saydometov
We use Google search frequency to construct a measure of aggregate sentiment in housing markets—Financial, Economic, and Real Estate (FEAR) Index—and analyze its relationship to housing returns. We find that housing markets react inversely to changes in FEAR Index, which captures negative sentiment, and that market characteristics affect the strength of this relationship. More financially distressed
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Mortgage loss severities: What keeps them so high? Real Estate Economics (IF 1.585) Pub Date : 2020-08-26 Xudong An, Larry Cordell
Mortgage loss‐given‐default (LGD) increased significantly when house prices plummeted during the financial crisis; but it has remained over 40% in recent years despite a strong housing recovery. Our results indicate that the sustained high LGDs postcrisis is due to a combination of an overhang of crisis‐era foreclosures and prolonged liquidation timelines, which have offset higher sales recoveries
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The housing consumption capital asset pricing model with an antichresis rent market: Nonseparability and composition risk Real Estate Economics (IF 1.585) Pub Date : 2020-08-17 Jihun Kim, Seok‐Kyun Hur, Yun W. Park
We develop a housing consumption capital asset pricing model for economies with an antichresis rent market wherein property owners receive up‐front lump‐sum deposits from renters instead of monthly rents and use it as leverage to acquire housing assets for rent. We estimate the model using antichresis rent market and stock market data for Korea. We find that housing consumption and nonhousing consumption
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The role of parents on the home ownership experience of their children: Evidence from the health and retirement study Real Estate Economics (IF 1.585) Pub Date : 2020-08-16 Shaun A. Bond, Michael D. Eriksen
We construct matched panel data sets of adult children with their parents to study the role of lagged parental attributes on subsequent home ownership decisions between 2000 and 2012. Earlier research has demonstrated intergenerational wealth transfers from parents to children are an important source of upfront equity used to purchase a first home, although parental attributes are often omitted as
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Local house price comovements Real Estate Economics (IF 1.585) Pub Date : 2020-08-04 Marcel Fischer, Roland Füss, Simon Stehle
We study the microlevel evolution of residential house prices using data on repeat sales on Manhattan Island from 2004 to 2015. We document that price comovement, even within a ZIP code, is a highly local and persistent phenomenon. The strength of such comovements vanishes with both spatial and temporal distance. Local underperformance is more persistent than local overperformance, particularly when
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Regulating short‐term rental housing: Evidence from New Orleans Real Estate Economics (IF 1.585) Pub Date : 2020-06-27 Maxence Valentin
This study examines the effects of regulations targeting Airbnb and other short‐term rental (STR) suppliers in the urban center of New Orleans. I show that although the new ordinances reduced participation in the STR market as intended, STR usage actually increased in the neighborhoods adjacent to areas the most affected by the regulations. I subsequently show that the new regulations depressed property
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House price history, biased expectations, and credit cycles: The role of housing investors Real Estate Economics (IF 1.585) Pub Date : 2020-06-18 Alessia De Stefani
Using the Michigan Survey, I show that consumers' house price expectations depend upon the recent history of house price developments in their city of residence. Forecast errors are predictable: people systematically underestimate momentum and neglect mean reversion, remaining over‐optimistic for several quarters after a prolonged trend of house price growth, and vice versa. Housing appreciation also
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Does asset location and concentration explain REIT IPO valuation? Real Estate Economics (IF 1.585) Pub Date : 2020-06-16 David C. Ling, Gianluca Marcato, Chen Zheng
Following recent developments in the asset pricing literature on geographic concentration, we complement classic theories based on information asymmetry and explain the short‐run performance of real estate investment trust (REIT) initial public offerings (IPOs) through an investor base mechanism. We analyze the U.S. market and show that issuers are more likely to underprice when a REIT is more geographically
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Appraising home purchase appraisals Real Estate Economics (IF 1.585) Pub Date : 2020-06-15 Paul Calem, Jeanna Kenney, Lauren Lambie‐Hanson, Leonard Nakamura
Home appraisals are produced for millions of residential mortgage transactions each year. In addition to preventing fraudulent transactions, an important benefit of appraisals when they report a value below the contract price is that they help borrowers renegotiate prices with sellers. However, appraised values are rarely below the purchase contract price: Some 30% of appraisals in our sample are exactly
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Asymmetric information and personal affiliations in brokered housing transactions Real Estate Economics (IF 1.585) Pub Date : 2020-06-01 Luis Arturo Lopez
This research provides evidence on the role of information asymmetry and personal affiliations in housing transactions using a novel dataset that allows observation of detailed information about the property, broker, and seller. Sellers holding a real estate license are found to obtain about 1.6% (or $3,200) more for their properties than unlicensed sellers, and sellers personally affiliated to a real
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Trustee affiliation and servicer oversight: Evidence from CMBS markets Real Estate Economics (IF 1.585) Pub Date : 2020-05-17 Walter D'Lima, Luis Arturo Lopez
We study the effect of a change in trustees' incentives to monitor servicers in CMBS markets. Our identification strategy rests on variation in servicer–trustee affiliation that arises from mergers. We present evidence that affiliation is associated with excessive principal and interest advances on delinquent loans that are not in the interest of bondholders. We observe that a servicer–trustee affiliation
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Modeling unobserved heterogeneity in hedonic price models Real Estate Economics (IF 1.585) Pub Date : 2020-05-14 Marc Francke, Alex Van de Minne
This paper studies unobserved heterogeneity in hedonic price models, arising from missing property and locational characteristics. Specifically, commercial real estate is very heterogeneous, and data on detailed property characteristics are often lacking. We show that adding mutually independent property random effects to a hedonic price model results in more precise out‐of‐sample price predictions
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The impact of housing conditions on health outcomes Real Estate Economics (IF 1.585) Pub Date : 2020-05-08 Juan Palacios, Piet Eichholtz, Nils Kok, Erdal Aydin
We investigate the relationship between housing conditions and health outcomes using a data set that tracks 25,000 German households over 25 years. We document that individuals exposed to poor housing conditions report worse mental and physical health, and experience an 11% increase in doctor visits, increasing to 20% for age groups over 64. The analysis controls for individual, dwelling, and temporal
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Connected markets through global real estate investments Real Estate Economics (IF 1.585) Pub Date : 2020-04-25 Bing Zhu, Colin Lizieri
This study focuses on the possibility of higher risk in commercial real estate markets due to the “linked ownership” network, which is measured by the common holdings of properties in different urban real estate markets by the same investor. Using data from 2007 to 2016, our results show that commonality in ownership can explain the significant comovement in international office market performance
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To accept or not to accept: Optimal strategy for sellers in real estate Real Estate Economics (IF 1.585) Pub Date : 2020-04-20 Thomas J. Emmerling, Abdullah Yavas, Yildiray Yildirim
We consider the problem of a seller who faces an unknown number of offers where each offer is a random draw from a known distribution. The objective of the seller is to maximize the probability that the highest offer is chosen. We show that the optimal strategy is characterized by a nonincreasing stochastic set of reservation prices. We also provide numerical analysis to calibrate the model and provide
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To measure globally, aggregate locally: Urban land, submarkets, and biased estimates of the housing stock Real Estate Economics (IF 1.585) Pub Date : 2020-04-06 Thom Malone, Christian L. Redfearn
This article highlights the role of land and housing submarkets in the construction of aggregate house price indexes and in the estimated value of the housing stock. We document idiosyncratic house price appreciation and sales volumes across submarkets within metropolitan areas that result in a sample of sold homes that are representative neither of the housing stock nor its appreciation over time
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Real estate as a new equity market sector: Market responses and return comovement Real Estate Economics (IF 1.585) Pub Date : 2020-04-03 Hongfei Tang, Kangzhen Xie, Xiaoqing Eleanor Xu
This study examines the market responses and return comovement between real estate and financial stocks around the reclassification of real estate firms from the financial sector to a standalone new real estate sector. We find that real estate stocks experience positive abnormal returns at the announcement of new sector creation, and attract more investor attention after the announcement. In addition
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Robust desmoothed real estate returns Real Estate Economics (IF 1.585) Pub Date : 2020-03-30 Jean‐Christophe Delfim, Martin Hoesli
This research starts from the observation that common desmoothing models are likely to generate some extreme returns that will distort risk measurement and hence can lead to investment decisions that are suboptimal relative to those that would be made if a transaction‐based index were available. Thus, we propose to improve the desmoothing models by incorporating a robust filter into the procedure.
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Institutional common ownership and firm value: Evidence from real estate investment trusts Real Estate Economics (IF 1.585) Pub Date : 2020-03-13 David C. Ling, Chongyu Wang, Tingyu Zhou
This paper contributes to the ongoing debate about whether and how institutional common ownership (ICO) affects firm behavior. Using a sample of equity real estate investment trusts (REITs), which provide significant advantages for isolating a monitoring channel, we find a robust and positive relation between ICO and REIT firm value. The positive relation between ICO and firm value is driven mainly
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Home ownership as a labor market friction Real Estate Economics (IF 1.585) Pub Date : 2020-02-05 Daniel R. Ringo
This paper estimates the effect of home ownership on individuals' unemployment. Because of higher moving costs, home owners will be less willing than renters to relocate for work and could therefore face longer unemployment spells. Estimation is complicated by the endogeneity of ownership, as owners will have different abilities, preferences, and job prospects than renters. I instrument for home ownership
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Melting pot or salad bowl: Cultural distance and housing investments Real Estate Economics (IF 1.585) Pub Date : 2020-02-05 Yongheng Deng, Maggie R. Hu, Adrian D. Lee
This paper investigates whether individuals’ cultural background affects their housing investment decisions, drawing inferences from property location choices, and transaction prices in Australia. We propose a novel measure of cultural distance for each homebuyer–neighborhood pair, adopting the six‐dimensional cultural framework of Hofstede. Our measure captures interethnicity similarity and thus measures