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Profitability of Defense Companies in the US and Europe Defence and Peace Economics (IF 2.027) Pub Date : 2024-03-13 Jean Belin, Mahdi Fawaz
The profitability (ROA) of US and European defense companies are influenced by past profitability, debt policy, company size, and defense specialization. Taking into account the effect of these var...
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Defense Industrial Base and Network Structure: Measurement, Analysis and Public Policies for the Brazilian Case Defence and Peace Economics (IF 2.027) Pub Date : 2024-01-17 Thiago Caliari, Luís Felipe Giesteira, Felipe Orsolin Teixeira, Cauan Braga da Silva Cardoso
This work aims to identify sectors of the Defense Industrial Base (DIB) that have the potential to generate productive and technological spillovers. We selected companies that sold to the Ministry ...
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Disinformation Strategies Defence and Peace Economics (IF 2.027) Pub Date : 2024-01-07 Daniel Arce
Disinformation is a form of offensive counterintelligence via deception and neutralization in order to strategically manipulate an audience or create further fractures in existing divisions. Disinf...
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Can Arms Embargoes Stop the Weapon Transfers to Target States? An Exploratory Meta-Analysis Defence and Peace Economics (IF 2.027) Pub Date : 2024-01-04 Jeroen Klomp
This study performs a meta-regression analysis of studies examining the efficacy of arms embargoes in stopping weapons transfers to target countries. Based on the existing body of literature, the e...
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The Political Economy of Military Aircraft, the Case of Europe Defence and Peace Economics (IF 2.027) Pub Date : 2024-01-04 Josselin Droff, Jade Guiberteau, Camille Laville, Julien Malizard, Laure Noël
This article measures and discusses the continuities and changes in the procurement process in Europe by examining the influence of national preferences in terms of sovereignty, industrial issues, ...
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Monitoring Indicators of Economic Activities in Sudan Amidst Ongoing Conflict Using Satellite Data Defence and Peace Economics (IF 2.027) Pub Date : 2023-12-17 Zhe Guo, Hala Abushama, Khalid Siddig, Oliver K. Kirui, Kibrom Abay, Liangzhi You
Political tensions in Sudan between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and Rapid Support Forces (RSF) escalated into an armed conflict on 15 April 2023, and continues to unfold to date. Besides the se...
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Sanctions, Co-Sanctions, and Counter-Sanctions: A Multilateral, Evolutionary Game Among Three Global Powers Defence and Peace Economics (IF 2.027) Pub Date : 2023-12-18 Peng Zhou, Dong Guo
Facing the sanctions from the West since the annexation of Crimea in 2014, Russia quickly converged to a strong counter-sanction strategy. The US and the EU staggered the strengths of sanctions in ...
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What is the Potential Impact of Iran’s Economic Global Integration on Saudi Arabia’s Military Spending? Defence and Peace Economics (IF 2.027) Pub Date : 2023-12-15 Mohammad Reza Farzanegan
I examine the response of Saudi Arabia’s military spending to a positive shock in Iran’s economic globalization index. Using vector autoregression (VAR)-based impulse response functions with data f...
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The Taliban’s Return to Power: An Empirical Analysis of the Afghan Peace Negotiations of 2018–2020 Defence and Peace Economics (IF 2.027) Pub Date : 2023-12-08 Rafiuddin Najam
Peace negotiations reduce violence and facilitate a roadmap to prosperity and stability. This study assesses the immediate effects of four significant events during the Afghan peace talks on the 7-...
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Post Service Labor Market Performance of Immigrant Veterans Defence and Peace Economics (IF 2.027) Pub Date : 2023-12-05 Youngjoo Jung
My research examines the labor market performance of prime-age (20-54) male immigrant veterans in the all-volunteer era, using the American Community Survey (2010-2019) and a linear regression mode...
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No, Punitive House Demolition Does Not Reduce Suicide Bombing: Revisiting Evidence from the Second Intifada Defence and Peace Economics (IF 2.027) Pub Date : 2023-12-01 Belal Fallah
Punitive house demolitions were intensified by the Israeli government during the Second Intifada with the intent of curbing suicide bombings. Using econometric analysis, Benmelech et al. (2015) sug...
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Cross-Check on Combat Aircraft Data Defence and Peace Economics (IF 2.027) Pub Date : 2023-11-27 Alsu Saitova, Robert Beeres
This paper presents our findings based on a systematic analysis of eight renowned data sources on combat aircraft data. Focusing on national combat aircraft fleets, we first investigate similaritie...
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How Does the Russian-Ukrainian War Rock Stock and Commodity Markets? Fresh Insights from Joint Network-Connectedness Analysis Defence and Peace Economics (IF 2.027) Pub Date : 2023-11-12 Amine Ben Amar, Néjib Hachicha, Hichem Rezgui, Shawkat Hammoudeh
The outbreak of the war in Ukraine has had a profound and far-reaching impact on the global economy, with notable repercussions observed in stock markets, and particularly pronounced effects eviden...
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Collective Action and Intra-Group Conflict: An Experiment Defence and Peace Economics (IF 2.027) Pub Date : 2023-11-10 Chizhe Cheng, Cary Deck, Wonjong Kim
In many situations, two rivals find themselves facing a common threat necessitating cooperation. Such alliances are uneasy as the parties anticipate eventually competing against each other in the f...
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International Transmission of Fiscal News Shock: Evidence from Defense Spending Defence and Peace Economics (IF 2.027) Pub Date : 2023-10-18 Jamil Sayeed, Deen Islam
This paper proposes a novel fiscal news shock transmission channel from the US to Canada. The US and Canada have a long history of strong political and economic ties. This high degree of economic a...
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The Impact of Military Expenditures on Economic Growth: A New Instrumental Variables Approach Defence and Peace Economics (IF 2.027) Pub Date : 2023-10-09 Luqman Saeed
Endogeneity problems have plagued efforts to estimate the impact of military expenditures on economic growth. This paper addresses this problem with two instruments for military expenditures: the v...
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When Military Interventions Decrease Military Power Evidence from the French Case Defence and Peace Economics (IF 2.027) Pub Date : 2023-09-28 Josselin Droff, Julien Malizard, Olivier Schmitt
Military interventions create dilemmas for military organizations which must balance security-related tasks (such as peacekeeping or crisis management operations) and defense-related tasks involvin...
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Unemployment and Military Labour Supply: A Study on Belgian Data for the Period 2005-2020 Defence and Peace Economics (IF 2.027) Pub Date : 2023-08-30 Pieter Balcaen, Cind Du Bois
ABSTRACT The Belgian military has been an all-voluntary force since the suspension of the conscription (1994). Characterised by a high average age and confronted with large outflows of personnel due to retirement, the Belgian armed forces are forced to substantially increase their recruitment efforts. Belgium is not only a country with a small military but it also has a very specific labour market
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Within Ethnic Population Inequality and within Self-Determination Movement Violence Defence and Peace Economics (IF 2.027) Pub Date : 2023-08-20 Brandon Ives
Abstract Dual bargaining commonly characterizes a number of self-determination (SD) conflicts. SD organizations making self-determination claims contest the state but also contest rival SD organizations. This article examines variation in SD organization violence against other SD organizations. It hypothesizes that (i) higher levels of ethnic population inequality (WPI) are pivotal for explaining violence
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Analysis of the Economic Effects of Defence Spending in Spain: A Re-Examination Through Dynamic ARDL Simulations and Kernel-Based Regularized Least Squares Defence and Peace Economics (IF 2.027) Pub Date : 2023-08-07 Ourania Dimitraki, Kyriakos Emmanouilidis
ABSTRACT Spain’s economic growth over the last few decades constitutes a rather distinctive case in post-World War II Europe, which has attracted international academic interest. This paper examines the relationship between Spain’s military expenditure and economic growth during the period 1954-2021 to shed further light. Using the recently developed method of Dynamic Autoregressive Distributive Lag
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NORAD Modernization: Private Benefits to Canada Defence and Peace Economics (IF 2.027) Pub Date : 2023-08-01 Ugurhan G. Berkok, Oana Secrieru
ABSTRACT The workhorse of military alliances theory is the joint products model where the prominent existence of private benefits from alliance activities alleviates the free-riding problem. In the case of NORAD Modernization project, there are potentially large private economic benefits accruing to Canada. These benefits may include technology transfers and domestically produced inputs from some sectors
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Redefining the Nexus of Military Spending Among Southeast Mediterranean Countries in the Presence of Nonlinearities Defence and Peace Economics (IF 2.027) Pub Date : 2023-07-27 Panagiotis Palaios, Evangelia Papapetrou
ABSTRACT The paper presents evidence on the relationship concerning military spending among Southeast Mediterranean countries (Greece – Turkey, Israel – Egypt, Israel – Turkey) over the period 1962–2020. We account for the presence of nonlinearities in the bilateral relationships of defence spending by applying Threshold Autoregressive methodologies and utilize kink regression analysis to detect the
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Employability of Syrian Refugees in Lebanon: The Role of Legal Residency Defence and Peace Economics (IF 2.027) Pub Date : 2023-07-19 Ali Fakih, Sara Kassab, Zeina Lizzaik
ABSTRACT The onset of the Syrian crisis in 2011 has led people to flow to neighboring countries seeking protection. Syrian refugees have become a topic of interest for many researchers where studies have highlighted their vulnerability in their host countries, including finding a job. There have been papers addressing the factors influencing Syrian refugees’ employability, but very few have specifically
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NATO’s Approach to Multi-Domain Operations: From the Perspective of the Economics of Alliances Defence and Peace Economics (IF 2.027) Pub Date : 2023-07-17 Futoshi Takabatake
This study presents a model that incorporates the characteristics of multi-domain operations (MDO) and analyzes the impact of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s (NATO) approach to MDO on the ...
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NATO Security Burden Sharing, 1991–2020 Defence and Peace Economics (IF 2.027) Pub Date : 2023-06-27 Wukki Kim, Todd Sandler
In contrast to much of the extant literature, the paper devises a composite security burden measure for the NATO alliance that accounts for three different contributions by allies to their collecti...
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Should we sell arms to human rights violators? What the public thinks Defence and Peace Economics (IF 2.027) Pub Date : 2023-06-21 Asif Efrat, Omer Yair
ABSTRACT Arms-exporting countries – even those that are liberal democracies – sell weapons to governments that violate human rights. Does the public support the provision of weapons to human rights violators? We examine public attitudes on arms exports through a survey experiment in Israel – a major arms exporter that is often criticized for arming repressive governments. Our analysis finds that human
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European Defence Industries’ Sales Performance: A Benefit-Of-The-Doubt Based Comparative Analysis Defence and Peace Economics (IF 2.027) Pub Date : 2023-06-08 Panayiotis Tzeremes
ABSTRACT The Russian invasion of Ukraine has generated a new impetus towards an enhanced European defence pillar, while many EU members have announced significant increases in their respective defence budgets over the coming years. Expectedly, a large percentage of the capital and technological inputs required to support the efforts towards a common European defence and the increased defence needs
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Entente versus Alliance: When Should States Be Friends but Not Allies? Defence and Peace Economics (IF 2.027) Pub Date : 2023-05-24 Emerson Niou, Sean M. Zeigler
ABSTRACT When faced with a common threat, states have various alignment choices. Formal alliances offer explicit military obligations of support. Others, such as the Triple Entente that preceded World War I, are more ambiguous understandings. These entente-like alignments make no formal pledges of armed support in the event of hostilities. However, they do not entirely rule out military support either
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On Distinguishing Defence Inputs in an Alliance – The Case of NORAD Defence and Peace Economics (IF 2.027) Pub Date : 2023-05-17 Ugurhan Berkok, Oana Secrieru, Kamin Peyrow Lee
ABSTRACT Our model extends the joint-products models to allow for two types of defence inputs used to produce both an alliance-wide public defence output and a country-specific private output. Distinguishing different defence inputs is particularly appropriate in the case of the North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD), as the alliance-wide defence output is produced with two inputs – military
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Star Wars: Anti-Satellite Weapons and Orbital Debris Defence and Peace Economics (IF 2.027) Pub Date : 2023-04-27 Anelí Bongers, José L. Torres
ABSTRACT The militarization and weaponization of outer space are increasing continuously with the development of new and more advanced space weapon systems by a growing number of nations. This is a direct consequence of the high and growing strategic value of outer space for defense, security, and warfare. This paper reviews trends in space weapon systems and analyzes the implications of anti-satellite
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Civil Conflict and Cross-Border Lending: A Sectoral, Micro Lender-Level Analysis of Syndicated Loans Defence and Peace Economics (IF 2.027) Pub Date : 2023-04-24 Chengchun Li, Yun Luo, Glauco De Vita
ABSTRACT This study examines empirically the impact of civil conflict on cross-border lending. Our sample covers 165 countries over the period 1984-2019 with loan data disaggregated at the economic sectoral level (primary, secondary and tertiary sectors), an analysis that is absent in existing literature. Our results indicate that cross-border lending to the primary sector is not significantly influenced
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Geopolitical Risk and Stock-Bond Interplay: A Comparative Study of Islamic and Conventional Assets in the GCC Defence and Peace Economics (IF 2.027) Pub Date : 2023-04-20 Chaker Aloui, Lama Al-Kayed, Alam Asadov, Nevi Danila
ABSTRACT Undoubtedly, financial markets are not only affected by common economic, financial and behavioral factors but also by other global risk shocks. In this paper, we investigate the relevance of global geopolitical risk in stock-bond relationships. Specifically, we assess the possibility and manner in which time-varying correlations of Islamic stocks and bonds (sukuk) returns are affected by geopolitical
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European Defence: No Zeitenwende Yet Defence and Peace Economics (IF 2.027) Pub Date : 2023-04-10 Sven Biscop
ABSTRACT The EU and its Member States have taken unprecedented collective steps to support Ukraine militarily. That has not yet translated into a stronger momentum to further cooperation between their own defence forces, however. Ideally, Member States would integrate national capabilities into large multinational formations. NATO’s New Force Model could provide an extra stimulus to that end.
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Assessing the Impact of Military and Civilian R&D on Performance Defence and Peace Economics (IF 2.027) Pub Date : 2023-04-10 Francisco José Callado-Muñoz, Marta Fernández-Olmos, Marisa Ramírez-Alesón, Natalia María Utrero-González
ABSTRACT The aim of this paper is to evaluate the effects of civilian, military and dual (both military and civilian) R&D investments on the profitability of firms. In particular, this paper analyses the role of different types of R&D investment in a sample of firms that collaborate with the Spanish Ministry of Defence. This database contains detailed information about the R&D activities taking place
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Military Technology, Defense Spending and Modernization of the Armed Forces: The Case of Spain, 1891-1935 Defence and Peace Economics (IF 2.027) Pub Date : 2023-04-09 José M. Ortiz-Villajos, José J. Martos-Gómez
ABSTRACT A central aspect of the modernization of the armed forces is innovation in military technology, which in turn has been closely linked to defense spending. However, the connection between these variables has hardly been analyzed quantitatively. This is due, in part, to the scarcity of statistical data on military technology. This paper has constructed this indicator for the case of Spain based
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Asymmetric Effects of Positive and Negative Commodity Price Shocks During Civil Wars Defence and Peace Economics (IF 2.027) Pub Date : 2023-03-20 Thorsten Janus, Daniel Riera-Crichton
ABSTRACT Economic shocks, including shocks to commodity export prices, have often been related to civil conflict. However, the literature usually assumes that commodity prices have linear effects. In this paper, we hypothesize that negative and positive commodity export price shocks can have asymmetric effects: while negative shocks are likely to increase conflict, positive shocks can have a smaller
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Singapore’s ’Total Defence’ Strategy Defence and Peace Economics (IF 2.027) Pub Date : 2023-03-09 Ron Matthews, Fitriani Bintang Timur
ABSTRACT Singapore launched its Total Defence strategy in 1984. It was one of the first countries in the modern era to enact such a policy based on an expanded interpretation of national security. Conventionally defence equates to military security, but for Singapore this approach was too limiting. There was a recognition that defence and development were intertwined and accordingly the authorities
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Concentration and Innovation in the Defence Industry: A Stochastic Game Defence and Peace Economics (IF 2.027) Pub Date : 2023-03-07 Luca Lambertini
ABSTRACT The relationship between industry structure, aggregate R&D activity and the quality level of the resulting innovation is investigated in a simple stochastic one-shot game in which all firms share the same probability of attaining the innovation concerning a new weapon system and therefore obtaining the contract from the government. The main findings of the game can be summarised as follows
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Proto-Insurgency, Repression-Driven Contagion, and Civil War Onset Defence and Peace Economics (IF 2.027) Pub Date : 2023-03-07 Jason Quinn, T. David Mason, Mustafa Kirisci, Sally Sharif
ABSTRACT The escalation of militarized interstate disputes (MIDs) into interstate wars has been studied extensively with opportunity and willingness frameworks. In this article, we conceptualize and operationalize proto-insurgencies as a civil war equivalent to MIDs. Just as most MIDs do not escalate into interstate war, most proto-insurgencies never make the key tactical transitions needed to produce
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European Defence Policy: Prospects and Challenges Defence and Peace Economics (IF 2.027) Pub Date : 2023-03-02 Keith Hartley
ABSTRACT European defence policy offers opportunities for spending more and better where better achieves more from existing resources. Increased defence spending needs to be justified by the threats to Europe which have to be identified and defined. Higher defence expenditure usually focuses on inputs rather than final outputs in the form of greater peace, protection, security and the safety of a nation’s
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The Spectrum of Strategic Autonomy in EU Defence Supply Chains Defence and Peace Economics (IF 2.027) Pub Date : 2023-02-24 Mitja Kleczka, Laurens Vandercruysse, Caroline Buts, Cind Du Bois
ABSTRACT The Strategic Compass, aims to strengthen the resilience of defence-industrial supply chains and complements the long-term strategic ambition of enhancing the EDTIB. Impetus for restructuring the EU’s supply chains may be provided by the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine, the associated increase in defence budgets, and the promotion of joint projects and cross-border M&A. Since the prospect
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Market Structures, Competition and Innovation: Grounds for an Alternative Defence Industrial Policy Defence and Peace Economics (IF 2.027) Pub Date : 2023-02-20 Renaud Bellais
ABSTRACT Since the 1980s, most reforms in major arms-producing countries focus on keeping costs under control by either promoting competition between suppliers or by reducing information asymmetry through audits and controls. Indeed, cost escalation represents a challenge but, in fact, these reforms try to adjust the functioning of defence market rather than questioning the institutional features of
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Mitigating the Risk of Advanced Cyber Attacks: The Role of Quality, Covertness and Intensity of Use of Cyber Weapons Defence and Peace Economics (IF 2.027) Pub Date : 2023-01-16 Amitai Gilad, Asher Tishler
ABSTRACT Modern countries employ computer networks that manage organizations in the private and public sectors. Cyber-attacks aim to disrupt, block, delete, manipulate or steal the data held in these networks, which challenge these countries’ national security. Consequently, cybersecurity programs must be developed to protect these networks from cyber-attacks in a manner that is similar to operations
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Conflict Trajectories and Education: Gender-Disaggregated Evidence from India Defence and Peace Economics (IF 2.027) Pub Date : 2023-01-12 Vidya Diwakar
This paper investigates the relationship between conflict trajectories and years of schooling in India for girls and boys. It adopts propensity score matching methods on panel data from the India H...
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Prospects of Deterrence: Deterrence Theory, Representation and Evidence Defence and Peace Economics (IF 2.027) Pub Date : 2022-12-19 Karl Sörenson
Game theoretic analysis of deterrence has been criticized for not capturing how actors realistically behave. It is alleged that prospect theoretical re-modeling provides a better foundation for a d...
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Verification of Peace Accords and Military Expenditures in Post-Conflict Societies Defence and Peace Economics (IF 2.027) Pub Date : 2022-12-19 Wakako Maekawa
Why is it that some governments ending a civil war in a negotiated settlement succeed in reducing military spending while others fail? Civil wars ending in peace agreements result in relatively low...
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Constraining Compliance? Reconsidering the Effect of Veto Players on Sanctions Success Defence and Peace Economics (IF 2.027) Pub Date : 2022-12-15 Tiziana Corda
What effect do domestic political and institutional constraints such as veto players have on the success of international sanctions which their countries have been subjected to? Do they facilitate...
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Collective Action and Intra-group Conflict with Fixed Budgets Defence and Peace Economics (IF 2.027) Pub Date : 2022-12-08 Kai A. Konrad, Florian Morath
We study collective action under adverse incentives: each member of the group has a given budget (‘use-it-or-lose-it’) that is private information and can be used for contributions to make the grou...
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Global Geopolitical Risk and the Long- and Short-Run Impacts on the Returns and Volatilities of US Treasuries Defence and Peace Economics (IF 2.027) Pub Date : 2022-12-05 Naji Jalkh, Elie Bouri
We examine the impact of global geopolitical risk (GPR) measures on US Treasuries’ returns and volatilities, differentiating between long- and short-run investment behaviours among an array of time...
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Military Spending and Economic Output: A Decomposition Analysis of the US Military Budget Defence and Peace Economics (IF 2.027) Pub Date : 2022-11-16 Kyriakos Emmanouilidis
Although the economic effects of defense expenditures have become an issue of intense interest over the recent decades, little is known about how the individual components of military spending affe...
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Determinants of External, Domestic, and Total Public Debt in Nigeria: The Role of Conflict, Arms Imports, and Military Expenditure Defence and Peace Economics (IF 2.027) Pub Date : 2022-11-13 Princewill Okwoche, Eftychia Nikolaidou
Nigeria’s external and domestic debt have been rising very rapidly in recent years despite the crushing weight of debt burden that almost crippled its economy in previous decades. This study examin...
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The Political Economy of Wargaming Defence and Peace Economics (IF 2.027) Pub Date : 2022-11-11 Garrett R. Wood
Modeling conflict through wargaming is the only option outside of high-cost real conflict for militaries to train their forces and attempt to reveal information about their own strengths and weakne...
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Trade Policy for Dual-Use Technology Defence and Peace Economics (IF 2.027) Pub Date : 2022-11-11 Leo J. Blanken, Jason J. Lepore
We consider trade policy for a private market good that is also valuable for the production of military force. In a two-country model with both contested and uncontested resources, we show necessar...
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Long-term Consequences of Civil War in Tajikistan: The Gendered Impact on Education and Labor Market Outcomes Defence and Peace Economics (IF 2.027) Pub Date : 2022-11-04 Satoshi Shimizutani, Eiji Yamada
Tajikistan experienced a violent internal conflict between 1992 and 1997. This study examines the long-term consequences of civil war in Tajikistan on education and labor market outcomes twenty yea...
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Cybersecurity For Defense Economists Defence and Peace Economics (IF 2.027) Pub Date : 2022-11-04 Daniel Arce
ABSTRACT Cybersecurity plays a role in national security. This study introduces cybersecurity concepts in ways familiar to defense economists and identifies parallel methods of analysis in the fields. The theoretical tools of both fields include microeconomics and game theory. These tools enable analyses of phenomena present in both milieus: public goods, externalities, commons, incentives, interdependent
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Indirect Rivalries and Civil Wars: Empirical Evidence Defence and Peace Economics (IF 2.027) Pub Date : 2022-10-15 Mahdi Fawaz, Erwan Le Quellec
In this paper, we develop a new dataset on indirect state rivalry relations based on different matrix calculations for 154 countries, over the period 1970-2015, and demonstrate their importance in ...
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Political Accountability and Military Spending Defence and Peace Economics (IF 2.027) Pub Date : 2022-10-08 Diego Lopes da Silva
ABSTRACT Over the past two decades, evidence on the relationship between democratization and reductions in military spending has accumulated. This association has proven to be robust to a wide variety of specifications and samples. Nevertheless, there remain two important gaps in our understanding of this relationship. Firstly, while most studies argue that democratic political institutions constrain
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Democracy, military expenditure and economic growth: A heterogeneous perspective Defence and Peace Economics (IF 2.027) Pub Date : 2022-09-30 Xinyi Wang, Na Hou, Bo Chen
Countries with different democratic levels tend to show various degrees of emphasis on military expenditure and a consensus can hardly be reached on the economic effect of democracy and military ex...
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‘On Vient de Fusiller un des Nôtres’: A Quantitative Study of Military Executions in the French Army during WW1 Defence and Peace Economics (IF 2.027) Pub Date : 2022-09-29 Olivier Guillot, Antoine Parent
This paper explores the issue of French executions during the Great War in a quantitative perspective. Based on the ‘Shot in the First World War’ database of the Ministry of Defense, we first provi...
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Potential Negative Externalities of Private Military Entrepreneurs from an Economic Perspective Defence and Peace Economics (IF 2.027) Pub Date : 2022-09-20 Frank Daumann
Private military companies (PMC) can have considerable advantages for the customer on the one hand, but on the other hand can come with great dangers. Based on the theory of externalities, an attem...