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Estimating the Effects of Covid-19 and Softwood Lumber Prices Journal of Forest Economics (IF 0.9) Pub Date : 2024-2-20 Rebecca Zanello, Papa Yaw Owusu, G. Cornelis van Kooten
During the Covid-19 pandemic, markets observed unprecedented changes in U.S. and Canadian softwood lumber prices and their volatility. In this paper, we employ an event-based model to estimate the impact of Covid-19 on the prices of softwood lumber, utilizing a Regression Discontinuity design model to investigate the potential causal effect of Covid-19 on softwood lumber prices. Our econometric analyses
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European Forest Sector in a Turbulent World Journal of Forest Economics (IF 0.9) Pub Date : 2024-1-30 A. Maarit I. Kallio
Since 2020, the outlook for the European forest sector has been unusually uncertain. After the recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic seemed to take off, Russia invaded Ukraine. In addition to human suffering, the war has economic consequences. Comparing scenarios quantified by global forest sector model projections, this study examines the impacts of the changes in the operation environment of the sector
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Payment for Forest Ecosystem Services in the Northwest Region, Vietnam: The Evaluation Using TOPSIS and Fuzzy Entropy Journal of Forest Economics (IF 0.9) Pub Date : 2023-11-29 Nguyen Minh Duc, Nguyen Xuan Thao, Tran Nguyen Thanh, Do Thi Diep, Quyen Dinh Ha
The Payment for Forest Ecosystem Services (PFES) policy in Vietnam is a multi-objective policy that aims to both protect forests and ensure sustainable livelihoods for local people. As such, to evaluate the effectiveness of this policy, we are facing the problem of multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM). The objectives of this paper are to assess PFES at a community level through the application of
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The Effect of the COVID-19 Pandemic on the Willingness-to-pay for Outdoor Recreation in Wilderness Areas Journal of Forest Economics (IF 0.9) Pub Date : 2023-8-30 Matthew R. Sloggy, Dede Long, José J. Sánchez
Understanding behavioral changes in the usage of outdoor recreational resources is important for the management of landholding agencies and organizations like the US Forest Service or Bureau of Land Management. Although the costs of operating these resources are often contrasted with the values they offer, little is known about how the values of benefits change in times of crisis. This work investigates
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Examining Preferences for Forest Ecosystem Services using Partial Profile Choice Experiments Journal of Forest Economics (IF 0.9) Pub Date : 2023-8-30 Yasushi Shoji, Takahiro Tsuge, Takahiro Kubo, Kohei Imamura, Koichi Kuriyama
The purpose of this study is to understand the general public’s preferences for forest ecosystem services in Japan using partial profile choice experiments. In cases where the number of attributes being assessed by discrete choice experiment is large, an approach that narrows down the number of attributes is preferable. However, there are certainly situations in which researchers want to value many
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On the Marginal Cost of the Duration of a Wildfire Journal of Forest Economics (IF 0.9) Pub Date : 2023-8-30 Antoine Belgodere, Frédéric Allaire, Jean-Baptiste Filippi, Vivien Mallet, Florian Guéniot
Avoiding catastrophic wildfires is a natural rationale for fighting fires in their early stage. Beside this benefit, may a marginal decrease in the duration of smaller wildfires be worthwhile? The present article addresses this topic by estimating the marginal damage of the duration of forest fires. We perform two sets of wildfire simulations in Corsica, and estimate the damage based on the type of
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Special Issue on Wooden Multi-storey Constructions in the Growing Bioeconomy Journal of Forest Economics (IF 0.9) Pub Date : 2023-3-14 Camilla Widmark
Introduction to the Special Issue on Wooden Multi-storey Constructions in the Growing Bioeconomy.
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Drivers of Deforestation and the Validity of the Environmental Kuznet Curve: Evidence from Middle/High Income African and East Asian Countries Journal of Forest Economics (IF 0.9) Pub Date : 2023-5-30 Aye Mengistu Alemu
This study employs a system GMM dynamic regression model and examines how the rates of deforestation vary by the level of per capita income and other factors for 21 middle/upper income African countries and 9 East Asian countries using panel data from 1990 to 2016. The East Asian sub-sample serves as a benchmark against which to contrast the middle and upper income African sub-sample. Accordingly,
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Incorporating ESG into Optimal Stock Portfolios for the Global Timber & Forestry Industry Journal of Forest Economics (IF 0.9) Pub Date : 2023-5-30 Hans Lööf, Maziar Sahamkhadam, Andreas Stephan
This paper investigates how optimal portfolios of timber & forestry stocks perform relative to the global S&P timber & forestry index when corporate social responsibility (CSR) is considered. We incorporate CSR in the construction of optimal portfolios by utilizing combined environmental, social, and governance (ESG) scores. Historical as well as copula-augmented predictive models and ESG-constrained
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Urban Planners’ Perspectives on Public Private Partnership for Wooden Multi-Storey Construction Journal of Forest Economics (IF 0.9) Pub Date : 2023-5-30 Cecilia Mark-Herbert, Anders Roos, Emil Nagy, Fredrik Sjöström
Increased awareness of sustainable development in the construction industry and current housing shortages have contributed to market opportunities for wooden multi-storey construction (WMC) in the Nordic countries. However, the market development has been slow despite access to forest products and a political ambition to transform to a low carbon society. The aim of this study is to explain enabling
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Dweller Preferences for Wood as a Load-Bearing Material in Residential Buildings Journal of Forest Economics (IF 0.9) Pub Date : 2023-5-30 Francisco X. Aguilar, Anders Roos, Antti Haapala, Katja Lähtinen, Matleena Kniivilä, Hans Fredrik Hoen
The wider use of wood as a load-bearing framing material can advance climate action by storing carbon in long-lived products. Substitution of traditional materials such as brick, concrete, and steel will be partly determined by dweller preferences. Unknown preferences allowed, we elicited stated choices for the following load-bearing materials in residential construction: (i) primarily wood and (ii)
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Wildlife Management in the Presence of Predation and Damage Costs Journal of Forest Economics (IF 0.9) Pub Date : 2022-10-30 Anders Skonhoft
In this paper a simple age-structured model is constructed to analyze how a wildlife population creating hunting value, but also damage costs, is influenced by predation. The model may exemplify a moose population causing forest browsing damage and exposed for predation by wolf or other big carnivores within a Scandinavian institutional setting. However, it can also fit to other ecological and institutional
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Rising Carbon Price and the Paradoxes of Forest-based Sequestration Journal of Forest Economics (IF 0.9) Pub Date : 2022-10-30 Colin Price, Rob Willis
Both supply and demand factors suggest that the price ascribed to a carbon flux into or out of the atmosphere might rise through time. When this is so, a single productive forestry cycle entails both early sequestration at low prices and late volatilisation at higher prices of carbon. Hence the cycle apparently has a negative carbon account, even if in every future time period its effect on atmospheric
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Tree Planting Subsidies and Land Use Switching between Forestry and Agriculture in the US South Journal of Forest Economics (IF 0.9) Pub Date : 2022-7-24 Bin Mei, David N. Wear, Yanshu Li
A regime switching model based on real options shows that optimal land use switching boundaries are contingent upon the stochastic behavior (trend and volatility) of timberland and cropland returns, conversion costs, and return correlation. Using this modeling framework applied to timberland and cropland in the US South, tree planting subsidies are shown to increase forest area over baseline projections
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Special Issue on The Economics of Global Forest Investments Journal of Forest Economics (IF 0.9) Pub Date : 2022-3-29 Rafał Chudy, Bin Mei, Frederick Cubbage
Introduction to the Special Issue on The Economics of Global Forest Investments.
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The Performance of Private Equity Timberland Funds in the United States between 1985 and 2018 Journal of Forest Economics (IF 0.9) Pub Date : 2022-3-29 Rafał Chudy, Bin Mei, Svein Skjerstad
Between the end of 1980s and today, the timberland asset class managed by timberland investment management organizations in the United States has grown from one to over 30 billion USD. However, to date, the application of scholarly research on the assessment of the performance of private equity timberland funds has been limited. In this study, we attempt to fill this knowledge void by investigating
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On the Performance of Timberland as an Alternative Asset Journal of Forest Economics (IF 0.9) Pub Date : 2022-3-29 Bin Mei
The financial performance of timberland as an alternative asset is assessed by the intertemporal capital asset pricing model and Fama-MecBeth two-step regression method. In the analysis, alternative assets include emerging markets, hedge funds, private equity, venture capital, commodities, real estate, farmland and timberland; conventional assets include S&P 500 Index, Dow Jones Index, first, fourth
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Pine Log Price Changes in South America: A Comparison of Argentina, Brazil, and Uruguay Markets Journal of Forest Economics (IF 0.9) Pub Date : 2022-2-19 Eduardo Hildt, Adriana Bussoni, Virginia Morales Olmos, Patricio M. Mac Donagh, Frederick W. Cubbage
We analysed the degree of price cointegration among pine log markets in northeast Argentina, Paraná State of Brazil, and Uruguay by examining price series over the period 2008--2020. We evaluated the cointegration of price series of the same product through the study regions. In the same way, we analysed the cointegration of price series of different products within the same zone. We found market cointegration
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Estimating Annual Investment Returns from Industrial Planted Forests of Radiata Pine in New Zealand Journal of Forest Economics (IF 0.9) Pub Date : 2022-4-30 David Evison
This will be published in the forthcoming Special Issue on The Economics of Global Forest Investments. The purpose of this paper is develop an industry-level (average) estimate of annual investment returns from industrial planted forests in New Zealand, from publicly-available financial statement data. The research used data from seven New Zealand commercial forest-growing companies, for the period
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Branding Wooden Multi-storey Construction – Real-Estate Agents as Gatekeepers for Enhancing Consumer Value in Housing Journal of Forest Economics (IF 0.9) Pub Date : 2022-1-30 Katja Lähtinen, Liina Häyrinen, Jaakko Jussila, Charlotta Harju, Anne Toppinen, Ritva Toivonen
Understanding of consumer value expectations in the Finnish multistorey construction (MSC) markets is limited. Even less information exists on branding in the MSC businesses. Real-estate agents are powerful actors in the housing markets through their intermediary role between construction sector businesses and home purchasers. Despite this, their perceptions on the consumer value expectations or branding
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In Memoriam: Karl-Gustaf Löfgren 1943-2021 Journal of Forest Economics (IF 0.9) Pub Date : 2022-1-31 Per-Olov Johansson, Bengt Kriström
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Projecting the Impact of Socioeconomic and Policy Factors on Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Carbon Sequestration in U.S. Forestry and Agriculture Journal of Forest Economics (IF 0.9) Pub Date : 2022-1-31 Christopher M. Wade, Justin S. Baker, Jason P. H. Jones, Kemen G. Austin, Yongxia Cai, Alison Bean de Hernandez, Gregory S. Latta, Sara B. Ohrel, Shaun Ragnauth, Jared Creason, Bruce McCarl
Understanding greenhouse gas mitigation potential of the U.S. agriculture and forest sectors is critical for evaluating potential pathways to limit global average temperatures from rising more than 2° C. Using the FASOMGHG model, parameterized to reflect varying conditions across shared socioeconomic pathways, we project the greenhouse gas mitigation potential from U.S. agriculture and forestry across
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Impact of Forest Stewardship Council on Integrated Pest Management in Certified Plantations of South Africa Journal of Forest Economics (IF 0.9) Pub Date : 2022-1-31 Pedro G. Lemes, Simon A. Lawson, José C. Zanuncio, Laercio A. G. Jacovine, Carlos M. M. E. Torres, Carlos F. Wilcken
“Highly hazardous” pesticides have been listed and banned in Forest Stewardship Council (FSC) certified areas and producers from tropical countries in the southern hemisphere, such as Australia, Brazil and South Africa suffer the consequences of these restrictions. The objective was to assess changes and costs of FSC forest certification in the pest management from the perspective of certified foresters
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Productivity Dynamics and Exports in the French Forest Product Industry Journal of Forest Economics (IF 0.9) Pub Date : 2022-1-31 Enrico De Monte
This paper investigates aggregate productivity dynamics of the French forest product industry based on firm-level data from 1994 to 2016. The main objectives of the paper are to investigate aggregate productivity growth in the industry, while taking market entry and exit into account. Further, aggregate productivity growth is investigated with respect to firms’ export status and with respect to their
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Designing Voluntary Subsidies for Forest Owners under Imperfect Information Journal of Forest Economics (IF 0.9) Pub Date : 2022-1-31 Frank Jensen, Bo Jellesmark Thorsen, Jens Abildtrup, Jette Bredahl Jacobsen, Anne Stenger
In this paper, we study voluntary subsidies offered to forest owners to increase rotation periods. We assume that a forest owner takes private amenity values into account when making decisions, but these values are lower than the social amenity values; therefore, an amenity value externality arises. Furthermore, the regulator has imperfect information regarding the timber profit of the forest owner
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A Theoretical Modeling Framework to Support Investment Decisions in Green and Grey Infrastructure under Risk and Uncertainty Journal of Forest Economics (IF 0.9) Pub Date : 2021-10-10 Zehua Pan, Roy Brouwer
Green infrastructure for source water protection in the form of forest protection and afforestation is gaining interest worldwide. It is considered more sustainable in the long-term than traditional engineering-based approaches. This paper presents a theoretical model to support investment decisions in green and grey infrastructure to deliver safe drinking water. We first develop a static optimal control
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On the Asymmetric Effects of Exchange Rate Changes on Trade Flows: Evidence from the U.S.-Canada Trade in Forest Products Journal of Forest Economics (IF 0.9) Pub Date : 2021-10-10 Jiangqin Xu, Jungho Baek
Up to now, relatively little attention has been given to the asymmetric effects of exchange rates on the trade balance in the forest economics literature. Thus, the primary thrust of this article is to probe the asymmetric impacts of exchange rates on exports and imports in the context of bilateral trade of forest products between the U.S.A. and Canada. To this end, we use the method of the nonlinear
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Can Satellite-Based Weather Index Insurance Hedge the Mortality Risk of Pine Stands? Journal of Forest Economics (IF 0.9) Pub Date : 2021-10-10 Wienand Kölle, Matthias Buchholz, Oliver Musshoff
Due to rising temperatures, forest stands are increasingly exposed to drought stress, which affects forest productivity through lower growth rates and higher mortality rates. Satellite-based index insurance could be an option for hedging the mortality risk of trees. Therefore, we calculated three remotely-sensed vegetation health indices from MODerate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite
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An Economical Transportation Plan for Forest Products Using a Computer-Aided Model Journal of Forest Economics (IF 0.9) Pub Date : 2021-6-17 Ismael Ghajar
The paper presents a computerized model for finding the single most economical landing location for ground-based timber harvesting and finding the least cost road path from the selected landing point to the existing off-road. The model uses raster-based GIS data and considers multiple design factors influencing the optimal landing location. Terrain conditions, the volume of stock distribution, downhill
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Ex Post Consequentiality and Willingness to Accept: A Case Study of a Payment for Ecosystem Services Program Journal of Forest Economics (IF 0.9) Pub Date : 2021-6-17 Jeff Felardo, Paul Hindsley
Forest related ecosystem services provide benefits at multiple geographic scales (i.e. watersheds, habitat, and carbon sequestration), motivating the development of payment for ecosystem services (PES) programs, which provide monetary incentives for forest conservation. In this study, we apply a dichotomous choice, contingent valuation study to investigate stated willingness to accept (WTA) for access
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The Loop Effect: How Climate Change Impacts the Mitigation Potential of the French Forest Sector Journal of Forest Economics (IF 0.9) Pub Date : 2021-6-17 Philippe Delacote, Antonello Lobianco, Sylvain Caurla, Jean-Daniel Bontemps, Anna Lungarska, Pierre Mérian, Miguel Rivière, Ahmed Barkaoui
Objectives: Evaluate the capacity of temperate forest resources to both provide climate change mitigation and to sustain the downstream timber sector explicitly considering the cascade of biophysical and economic drivers (in particular, climate change impacts and subsequent adaptation actions) and their uncertainty. Methodology: A recursive bio-economic model of French forest resources, management
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Swapping Forests to Preserve Valuable Sites: A Sketch of a Framework for Economic Evaluation Journal of Forest Economics (IF 0.9) Pub Date : 2021-6-17 Per-Olov Johansson, Bengt Kriström
In 2012 the Swedish Environmental Protection Agency was provided with 100,000 ha of productive forest land. The Agency swapped the land to obtain conservation-worthy forests, and these were turned into natural reserves. Conservation without reference to both benefits and cost typically results in inefficient solutions. In this paper we discuss how to select the forest stands to preserve in a cost-effective
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Valuation of Large Carnivores and Regulated Carnivore Hunting Journal of Forest Economics (IF 0.9) Pub Date : 2020-8-26 Julian E. Lozano, Katarina Elofsson, Jens Persson, Petter Kjellander
Large carnivores are keystone species but represent economic costs to hunters. In Sweden, carnivore territories generally overlap with hunting areas, and as a result, conflicts occur because of the competition for prey. The wolf, lynx, and brown bear are protected species by law but are hunted when authorities allocate license hunting quotas. The aim of these quotas is to limit carnivore numbers. We
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Prospects for the Norwegian Forest Sector: A Green Shift to Come? Journal of Forest Economics (IF 0.9) Pub Date : 2020-8-26 Erik Trömborg, Eirik Ogner Jåstad, Torjus Folsland Bolkesjø, Per Kristian Rørstad
The forest-based sectors are in a period of significant transition due to climate change mitigation efforts, changes in forest products demand and other external mega-trends. This study applies a three-step Delphi process to identify the main drivers and formulate possible scenarios for the development of the Norwegian forest sector towards 2040. The impacts of these scenarios are analyzed with a partial
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Timber Price Dynamics After a Natural Disaster: A Reappraisal Journal of Forest Economics (IF 0.9) Pub Date : 2020-8-26 Changyou Sun
Natural disasters such as a hurricane can result in massive timber loss in a forested region. Timber prices in the affected region can drop sharply at the beginning and then recover gradually. In this study, the determinants of timber price recovery and the magnitudes of their contributions are analyzed through a partial equilibrium displacement model. Hurricane Hugo of 1989 is used to calibrate the
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Quantifying the Announcement Effects in the U.S. Lumber Futures Market Journal of Forest Economics (IF 0.9) Pub Date : 2020-8-26 Zarina Ismailova, Xiaoli Etienne, Shishir Shakya, Fabio Mattos
The impact of information release from public report announcements has been widely investigated in many commodity markets, but little attention has been paid to the lumber market. In this paper, we use generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) models to examine the effect of two housing market reports, namely the New Residential Construction (Housing Starts) and the New Residential
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Revisiting the Dynamics of Forest Area Change: A Panel Data Assessment Journal of Forest Economics (IF 0.9) Pub Date : 2020-3-29 George Halkos, Antonis Skouloudis
This study employs a panel dataset on forest area of 22 countries and for the time period 1995–2016 in order to provide an up-todate assessment on determinants of forest area change. Our set of explanatory variables is drawn from the Environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis and well-established factors affecting forest area change. In this respect, macroeconomic stability, socioeconomic development,
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Public Expenditure Effectiveness for Biodiversity Conservation: Understanding the Trends for Project Tiger in India Journal of Forest Economics (IF 0.9) Pub Date : 2020-3-29 Bibhu P. Nayak, Pradyot Ranjan Jena, Saswata Chaudhury
Project Tiger, a flagship programme for conservation of the tiger launched in 1973 in India has expanded over the years in terms of its geographical coverage and volume of expenditure. However, the tiger is still an endangered species in India and conservation efforts face multiple challenges like widespread loss of tiger habitat, decline in the density of prey animals, illegal poaching, humananimal
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Conservation of Genetic Resources of Crops: Farmer Preferences for Banana Diversity in Sri Lanka Journal of Forest Economics (IF 0.9) Pub Date : 2020-3-29 Wasantha Athukorala, Muditha Karunarathna, Clevo Wilson, Shunsuke Managi
This study investigates farmer preferences for banana diversity in Sri Lanka. First, we investigate farmers’ attitudes towards banana cultivation. Secondly, we estimate diversity selection models to identify the important factors that contribute to conservation of banana diversity. The study analyses 450 banana growers in three districts representing different climatic zones. The Poisson model and
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Preventing Peatland Fires in Central Kalimantan, Indonesia: The Role of Economic Incentives and Social Norms Journal of Forest Economics (IF 0.9) Pub Date : 2020-3-29 Yuki Yamamoto, Kenji Takeuchi, Gunnar Köhlin
This study examines the role of economic incentives and social norms in farmers’ fire prevention behaviors using survey and remote sensing data. We focus on Central Kalimantan, Indonesia, where large peatland fires cause environmental and social problems. Our regression results indicate that farmers’ prevention behaviors are positively associated with agricultural economic returns and participation
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Special Issue Introduction - Natural Capital and Ecosystem Service: Sustainable Forest Management and Climate Change Journal of Forest Economics (IF 0.9) Pub Date : 2020-3-29 Shunsuke Managi, George Halkos
Selected papers in this special issue of “Natural capital and ecosystem service: Sustainable forest management and climate change” in the Journal of Forest Economics include contributions to provide guidance to policy-makers and government officials in designing new policy scenarios for sustainable forest management.
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Timberland Asset Pricing in the United States Journal of Forest Economics (IF 0.9) Pub Date : 2020-1-21 Daowei Zhang, Richard W. Hall
In this paper we investigate the drivers of U.S. timberland property value, returns, and risk represented by the NCREIF Timberland Index from 1987 to 2016. We use the Faustmann-Hartman model to develop and test one timberland property value model and two timberland return models that include macroeconomic and microeconomic (or forestry-specific) factors respectively. We find that U.S. timberland value
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Consequences of Discount Rate Selection for Financial and Ecological Expectation and Risk in Forest Management Journal of Forest Economics (IF 0.9) Pub Date : 2020-1-21 Joseph Buongiorno, Mo Zhou
The objective of this study was to explore methods to measure the effect of the choice of discount rates on the expected value and risk (measured with standard deviation) of the net present value (NPV) of financial returns, and on the expected value and risk of undiscounted ecological criteria resulting from optimum financial policies. An application to mixed-species uneven-aged forests of the US South
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The Infinitely Worried Forest Owner Key Biotopes and Forest Certification in a Faustmann Model Journal of Forest Economics (IF 0.9) Pub Date : 2020-1-21 Bengt Kriström, Per-Olov Johansson
In this note, we consider a case when a forestry property may lose its market value through “political risk”, illustrated here by it being classified as containing a key biotope. If a key biotope is found on a forest property in Sweden, the wood is almost impossible to sell. We show how the Faustmann formula is modified in this case and identify a “balance sheet” effect and a shortened rotation period
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Paired Stated Preference Methods for Valuing Management of White Pine Blister Rust: Order Effects and Outcome Uncertainty Journal of Forest Economics (IF 0.9) Pub Date : 2020-1-21 James R. Meldrum, Patricia Champ, Craig Bond, Anna Schoettle
The literature on nonmarket valuation includes many examples of stated and revealed preference comparisons. However, comparisons within stated preference methods are sparse. Specifically, the literature provides few examples of pairing both a discrete choice experiment (CE) and a contingent valuation (CV) question within a single survey. This paper presents results of a nonmarket valuation study that
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How Sensitive are Spatial Estimates of Wilderness Recreation Values to Information about Hiking Destinations? Journal of Forest Economics (IF 0.9) Pub Date : 2020-1-21 José J. Sánchez, Kenneth Baerenklau, Armando González-Cabán
This study uses individual survey data to investigate the impact of information about hiking destinations on estimated wilderness values in a spatial context. The data is derived from a revealed preference survey of backcountry visitors who responded to questions about their recreation behavior in the San Jacinto Wilderness of southern California. Two GIS data layers are developed showing spatial representations
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Policy Perspective on the Role of Forest Sector Modeling Journal of Forest Economics (IF 0.9) Pub Date : 2019-11-12 Sara Bushey Ohrel
This special issue is an important contribution to the literature as the papers therein reflect advancements in forest sector modeling tools that give decisionmakers informed acuity about what kinds of policy frameworks and incentives might be most effective in achieving policy goals. Also, it also allows for the opportunity model developers and decisionmakers alike to further understand and compare
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Impacts of Increasing Bioenergy Production on Timber Harvest and Carbon Emissions Journal of Forest Economics (IF 0.9) Pub Date : 2019-11-12 Jinggang Guo, Peichen Gong, Runar Brännlund
Using a partial equilibrium model of the Swedish forest sector, this study analyzes the impacts of an increasing bioenergy production on the timber harvest and forest growing stock. The impacts on the carbon balance of forests are also examined. The results suggest that, when compared with the base scenario, in which the current use pattern of forests continues, increased bioenergy production will
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The Net Carbon Emissions from Historic Land Use and Land Use Change Journal of Forest Economics (IF 0.9) Pub Date : 2019-11-12 Robert Mendelsohn, Brent Sohngen
Deforestation from timber harvests and farmland conversions have led to 565 GtCO2 (billion tons of carbon dioxide) being emitted into the atmosphere. Taking into account natural regeneration on forestland, Houghton (2003, 2008) and Houghton et al. (2012) estimate that deforestation has caused a net loss of 484 GtCO2 since 1900 which is about one third of all manmade emissions. However, these estimates
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Evaluating Potential Sources of Aggregation Bias with a Structural Optimization Model of the U.S. Forest Sector Journal of Forest Economics (IF 0.9) Pub Date : 2019-11-12 Chrisopher M. Wade, Justin S. Baker, Greg Latta, Sara B. Ohrel
Structural economic optimization models of the forestry and land use sectors can be used to develop baseline projections of future forest carbon stocks and annual fluxes, which inform policy dialog and investment in programs that maintain or enhance forest carbon stocks. Such analyses vary in terms of the degree of spatial, temporal, and activity-level aggregation used to represent forest resources
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Importance of Cross-Sector Interactions When Projecting Forest Carbon across Alternative Socioeconomic Futures Journal of Forest Economics (IF 0.9) Pub Date : 2019-11-12 Jason P. H. Jones, Justin S. Baker, Kemen Austin, Greg Latta, Chrisopher M. Wade, Yongxia Cai, Lindsay Aramayo-Lipa, Robert Beach, Sara B. Ohrel, Shaun Ragnauth, Jared Creason, Jeff Cole
In recent decades, the carbon sink provided by the U.S. forest sector has offset a sizable portion of domestic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. In the future, the magnitude of this sink has important implications not only for projected U.S. net GHG emissions under a reference case but also for the cost of achieving a given mitigation target. The larger the contribution of the forest sector towards reducing
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A Shared Socio-economic Pathway Approach to Assessing the Future of the New Zealand Forest Sector Journal of Forest Economics (IF 0.9) Pub Date : 2019-11-12 Adam Daigneault
Shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs) enable a systematic exploration of the challenges to adaptation and mitigation that alternative futures entail. However, these alternative futures are primarily defined for the global scale and feature coarse sector analysis. This paper builds on the recent development of five qualitative forest sector pathways by incorporating these narratives in a multi-stage
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Global Woody Biomass Harvest Volumes and Forest Area Use Under Different SSP-RCP Scenarios Journal of Forest Economics (IF 0.9) Pub Date : 2019-11-12 Pekka Lauri, Nicklas Forsell, Mykola Gusti, Anu Korosuo, Petr Havlík, Michael Obersteiner
In this study, we investigate the effects of climate change mitigation and socioeconomic development on global forest resources use. The analysis is based on the Global Biosphere Management Model (GLOBIOM), which is a recursive dynamic land-use model. Climate change mitigation and socioeconomic development are included in the model as exogenous parameters taken from the SSP-RCP scenarios, which separate
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The Influence of Parametric Uncertainty on Projections of Forest Land Use, Carbon, and Markets. Journal of Forest Economics (IF 0.9) Pub Date : 2019-08-07 Brent Sohngen,Marwa E Salem,Justin S Baker,Michael J Shell,Sei Jin Kim
This paper uses Monte Carlo methods and regression analysis to assess the role of uncertainty in yield function and land supply elasticity parameters on land use, carbon, and market outcomes in a long-term dynamic model of the global forest sector. The results suggest that parametric uncertainty has little influence on projected future timber prices and global output, but it does have important implications
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The Influence of Parametric Uncertainty on Projections of Forest Land Use, Carbon, and Markets Journal of Forest Economics (IF 0.9) Pub Date : 2019-8-6 Brent Sohngen, Marwa E. Salem, Justin S. Baker, Michael J. Shell, Sei Jin Kim
This paper uses Monte Carlo methods and regression analysis to assess the role of uncertainty in yield function and land supply elasticity parameters on land use, carbon, and market outcomes in a long-term dynamic model of the global forest sector. The results suggest that parametric uncertainty has little influence on projected future timber prices and global output, but it does have important implications
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Carbon Uptake and Forest Management under Uncertainty: Why Natural Disturbance Matters Journal of Forest Economics (IF 0.9) Pub Date : 2019-8-6 G. Cornelis van Kooten, Craig Johnston, Fatemeh Mokhtarzadeh
This study examines how natural disturbance can adversely affect the carbon sequestration potential of the forest, and the potential contribution that genomics might make towards offsetting these impacts when carbon is priced. A stochastic dynamic programming model of the BC interior, which includes a detailed carbon accounting module, shows that harvests are delayed as carbon prices rise, with less
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From Source to Sink: Past Changes and Model Projections of Carbon Sequestration in the Global Forest Sector Journal of Forest Economics (IF 0.9) Pub Date : 2019-8-6 Craig Johnston, Joseph Buongiorno, Prakash Nepal, Jeff Prestemon
An economic model of the global forest sector was used to estimate the carbon mitigating potential of the world’s forests to 2065 for 180 countries assuming future socioeconomic trends that do not change markedly from historical patterns, consistent with the IPCC-SSP2. Forest carbon pools were broken down into four categories; (i) above-ground and below-ground biomass, (ii) forest soil, (iii) dead
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Developing Detailed Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) Narratives for the Global Forest Sector Journal of Forest Economics (IF 0.9) Pub Date : 2019-8-6 Adam Daigneault, Craig Johnston, Anu Korosuo, Justin S. Baker, Nicklas Forsell, Jeffrey P. Prestemon, Robert C. Abt
This paper presents a series of narratives that can be used to define possible future trends in the global forest sector across the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), which we refer to as Forest Sector Pathways (FSPs). SSPs are part of a new scenario framework established by the climate change research community that facilitate the integrated analysis of future climate impacts, vulnerabilities,
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State of the Art Methods to Project Forest Carbon Stocks Journal of Forest Economics (IF 0.9) Pub Date : 2019-8-6 Justin S. Baker, Nicklas Forsell, Greg Latta, Brent Sohngen
This special issue provides a broad range of potential methodologies, based in economics, for projecting forest carbon stocks. Papers included highlight new analyses from various economists that have projected carbon fluxes nationally and globally. Through carefully designed research, these authors have provided deep insights into methods that can be applied broadly.
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Specifying Forest Sector Models for Forest Carbon Projections Journal of Forest Economics (IF 0.9) Pub Date : 2019-8-6 David N. Wear, John W. Coulston
Forest sector models merge models of timber inputs and final wood products markets with biophysical models of forest dynamics to project forest futures. Comprehensive treatment of biophysical dynamics is required to address the product detail of timber markets and to track changes in forest carbon. We examine assumptions for existing Forest Inventory Projection Models and empirically examine the implications