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TOWARD A NEW COMPARATIVE PUBLIC LAW OF CENTRAL BANK LEGISLATION: Designing Legislative Mandates for Central Bank Private Securities Assets Purchases and Nominal GDP Targeting Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice Pub Date : 2021-01-01 Bryane Michael, Svitlana Osaulenko
Abstract What role could unconventional monetary policy – and particularly unconventional policies like private asset purchases under a quantitative easing or lender of last resort scheme – play in influencing economic growth directly? A wide literature in economics explores the pros and cons of using these policies. However, most studies also point to the uncertain and antagonistic legal basis for
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Macroeconomic determinants of MIR interest rate margin in the euro area Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice Pub Date : 2021-01-01 Dimitrios Anastasiou
Abstract This study aims to examine the determinants of the MIR interest rate in the Euro area for the period 2003Q1-2015Q3. By employing Fixed and Random Effects as econometric methodologies, I examine whether the MIR rate is affected by the following macroeconomic factors: unemployment rate, inflation rate, GDP growth, political stability index, and wages as percentage of GDP. All these factors have
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Crisis Prevention and the Coronavirus Pandemic as a Global and Total Risk of Our Time Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice Pub Date : 2021-01-01 Radoica Luburić
Abstract The Coronavirus pandemic, as a global and total risk of our time, has imposed the need for a more complete and comprehensive review of existing approaches to crisis prevention and preventive management in general. This crisis also pointed to some shortcomings in quality management, risk management and change management, which had not been removed in a timely and adequate manner in more stable
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Comparative Analysis of the Banking Sector Competitiveness in Serbia and Montenegro Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice Pub Date : 2021-01-01 Zoran Grubišić, Sandra Kamenković, Tijana Kaličanin
Abstract Central banks often use certain concentration indices in their official reports to determine the degree of intensity of competition, of which the most common are the concentration ratio and the Herfindahl-Hirschman index. It is important to emphasize that when calculating the value of these indices, the National Bank of Serbia most often uses the absolute value of assets. In addition to the
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Does Monetary Policy Credibility Help in Anchoring Inflation Expectations? Evidence from Six Inflation Targeting Emerging Economies Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice Pub Date : 2021-01-01 Aslı Güler
Abstract Most emerging market central banks have adopted inflation targeting as their monetary policy system. The heart of inflation targeting system is inflation expectations. The success of a central bank in achieving targets depends on to the extent to which inflation expectations are formed by the announced targets. As the credibility of the central bank increases, its ability to affect the public
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Are risk weights of banks in the Czech Republic procyclical? Evidence from wavelet analysis Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice Pub Date : 2021-01-01 Václav Brož, Lukáš Pfeifer
Abstract We analyze the cyclicality of risk weights of banks in the Czech Republic from 2008 to 2016. We differentiate between risk weights under the internal ratings-based and those under the standardized approach, consider the financial cycle, and employ wavelet coherence as a means of dynamic correlation analysis. Our results indicate that the risk weights of exposures under the internal ratings-based
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The Impact of Fiscal Deficit on Inflation in Namibia Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice Pub Date : 2021-01-01 Joel Hinaunye Eita, Victoria Manuel, Erwin Naimhwaka, Florette Nakusera
Abstract This paper examined the impact of fiscal deficit on inflation in Namibia. The paper employed Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model (ARDL) and Granger causality approach using quarterly data for the period 2002 - 2017. Empirical results showed evidence of a long run positive effect of fiscal deficit on inflation in Namibia. This suggests that fiscal deficit has a direct effect on inflation in
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Dynamic Impact of Banking Performance on Financial Stability: Fresh Evidence from Southeastern Europe Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice Pub Date : 2021-01-01 Veton Zeqiraj, Flamur Mrasori, Omer Iskenderoglu, Kazi Sohag
Abstract This study addresses the issue of whether banking performance impacts financial stability in Southeastern European countries. To answer this question, the GMM approach has been applied in the analyses of the panel data over the period 2000–2015 for Southeastern Europe. The findings reveal the presence of significant positive long-run relationship between ROA, ROE, trade openness, and human
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The Impact of Earnings variability and Regulatory Measures on Income Smoothing: Evidence from Panel Regression Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice Pub Date : 2021-01-01 Amina Malik, Haroon Aziz, Buerhan Saiti, Shahab Ud Din
Abstract This study investigates the impact of variability in earnings, stringent regulatory measures and the trend of extending loans while keeping in view deposit ratio on income smoothening practices for a sample of 20 commercial banks listed on the Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) from the year 2010 to 2017. The likelihood of smoothing activities is measured through its widely used proxy, i.e. loan
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Monetary Policy Interdependency in Fisher Effect: A Comparative Evidence Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice Pub Date : 2021-01-01 Olatunji Abdul Shobande, Oladimeji Tomiwa Shodipe
Abstract In this paper, we examine the ability of Fisher effect to describe the subjective behaviour of monetary policy responses for nations constrained by global factors. We developed and estimated a simple DSGE model for appraising the consequence of an integrated financial market predictor on national monetary policy response in Africa’s largest economies – Nigeria and South Africa. The paper integrated
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Bank Risk Profiles and Business Model Characteristics Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice Pub Date : 2020-09-01 Roberto Ercegovac, Mario Pečarić, Ivica Klinac
Abstract Current research, especially after the financial crisis, highlights different key determinants of high risk bank profiles. The main aim of this paper is to test, through an empirical model, the impact of various determinants of bank business models on the bank risk with the purpose of enabling early identification of signals of risk and timely application of prudential measures. There are
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The Relationship between Inflation and Interest Rates in the UK: The Nonlinear ARDL Approach Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice Pub Date : 2020-09-01 Ismet Gocer, Serdar Ongan
Abstract This study reconsiders the Fisher effect for the UK from a different methodological perspective. To this aim, the nonlinear ARDL model recently developed by Shin et al. (2014), is applied over the periods of 1995M1-2008M9 and 2008M10-2018M1. This model decomposes the changes in original inflation series as two new series: increases and decreases in inflation rates. Hence, it enables us to
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GARCH Modelling of High-Capitalization Cryptocurrencies’ Impacts During Bearish Markets Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice Pub Date : 2020-09-01 Anastasiadis Panagiotis, Katsaros Efthymios, Koutsioukis Anastasios-Taxiarchis, Pandazis Athanasios
Abstract This study investigates how twelve cryptocurrencies with large capitalization get influenced by the three cryptocurrencies with the largest market capitalization (Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Ripple). Twenty alternative specifications of ARCH, GARCH as well as DCC-GARCH are employed. Daily data covers the period from 1 January 1 2018 to 16 September 2018, representing the intense bearish cryptocurrency
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Financial Stability and Climate Change Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice Pub Date : 2020-09-01 Nikola Fabris
Abstract Fighting climate change is one of the biggest challenges in the 21st century. Climate change that leads to global warming has been increasingly visible in our environment. Extreme weather conditions such as hurricanes, floods, and droughts have been escalating and their acceleration can be expected in the future. They cause changes in sea levels, epidemics, large fires, etc. Increasingly,
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Monetary Policy after the Great Moderation Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice Pub Date : 2020-09-01 Guillermo Peña
Abstract The interferences among some financial, economic and monetary variables are checked as an indicator of economic performance in the long run and for the monetary policy applied between the Great Moderation (GM) of 1987-2001 and the Global Financial Crisis of 2007-2009. For achieving this target, some Granger causality tests are applied to GDP growth, credit growth, and lending interest of 36
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Testing for the Effectiveness of Inflation Targeting in India: A Factor Augmented Vector Autoregression (FAVAR) Approach Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice Pub Date : 2020-09-01 P Jithin, Babu M Suresh
Abstract Employing Factor Augmented Vector Autoregression (FAVAR) model where factors are obtained using the principal component analysis (PCA) and the parameters of the model are estimated using Vector Autoregression framework, we analyse how changes in monetary policy variables impact inflation, output, money supply, and the financial sector in India. Our results for the period 2001:04 to 2016:03
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Monetary Base Controllability after an Exit from Quantitative Easing Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice Pub Date : 2020-09-01 Atsushi Tanaka
Abstract This study examines the problem that a central bank may face after exiting a monetary quantitative easing policy. It develops a simple dynamic optimization model of a central bank, which finds that if the bank needs to absorb a substantial amount of excess reserves when exiting, the monetary base may become uncontrollable. In this case, the bank has no option but to increase the monetary base
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Indonesian Household Payment Choice: A Nested Logit Analysis Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice Pub Date : 2020-07-01 Nur Annisa Hasniawati, Eva R. Lase, Akhis R. Hutabarat
Abstract We examine the preferences of respondents for six types of payment instruments, namely cash, debit and credit cards, card and server-based electronic money, and internet or mobile banking. By applying a nested logit model to 500 household data covering six provincial capitals in Indonesia, we find that the decision to choose payment instruments is made sequentially. Socio-economic characteristics
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Macroprudential Liquidity Stress Test: An Application to Indonesian Banks Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice Pub Date : 2020-07-01 Aditya Anta Taruna, Cicilia Anggadewi Harun, Raquela Renanda Nattan
Abstract This paper develops a macroprudential liquidity stress test model for Indonesian banks. Our model incorporates two factors driving liquidity runs: (i) idiosyncratic factors; and (ii) macroeconomic factors. We estimate this model using a sample of 113 banks over the period of January 2011 to June 2018, and dynamic panel data estimators. We establish significant transmission channels from macroeconomic
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Influence of Exchange Rate Fluctuations and Credit Supply on Dividend Repatriation Policy of U.S. Multinational Corporations Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice Pub Date : 2020-07-01 Muhammad Tahir, Haslindar Ibrahim, Abdul Hadi Zulkafli, Muhammad Mushtaq
Abstract This study aims to examine the effect of exchange rate fluctuations and credit supply on the dividend repatriation policy of foreign subsidiaries of U.S. multinational corporations (MNCs) around the world. The difference generalised method of moments (GMM) estimator was applied to estimate the dynamic dividend repatriation model. The results suggest that the appreciation of host-country currency
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Cashless Payments and Economic Growth: Evidence from Selected OECD Countries Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice Pub Date : 2020-07-01 Teck-Lee Wong, Wee-Yeap Lau, Tien-Ming Yip
Abstract This study investigates the relationship between cashless payments and economic growth in selected OECD countries. Using annual data from 2007 to 2016, our results indicate that: Firstly, cashless payment stimulates economic growth in OECD countries. Specifically, the growth-enhancing effect is found in debit card payment while credit card, e-money and cheque payment have no impact on economic
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Monetary Consequences of Fiscal Stress in a Game Theoretic Framework Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice Pub Date : 2020-07-01 Dat Thanh Nguyen, Viet Anh Hoang
Abstract This paper maps Leeper and Walker (2011) model into a game theory framework to study about the strategic aspects of monetary and fiscal interaction under a fiscal stress caused by an ageing population problem. The paper reveals that the outcomes of the game depend on the parameters of the underlying model, the size of the projected transfers and the public inflation expectation. The findings
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Financial Vulnerability and Economic Dynamics in Malaysia Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice Pub Date : 2020-07-01 Tai-Hock Kuek, Chin-Hong Puah, M. Affendy Arip
Abstract This study attempts to develop a financial vulnerability indicator serving as a composite indicator for the state of financial vulnerability. The indicator was constructed from 10 variables of macroeconomic, financial and property market by extracting a common vulnerability component through the dynamic approximate factor model. On the feedback and amplification effects, the outcome revealed
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Capital Flows and Bank Risk-Taking Behavior: Evidence From Indonesia Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice Pub Date : 2020-07-01 Bayront Yudit Rumondor, Pakasa Bary
Abstract This paper investigates the impact of capital flows on bank risk-taking behavior. It undertakes two levels of empirical estimations, namely (i) single-country industry-level; and (ii) multi-country industry-level estimations, covering emerging market economies. The results suggest that capital inflows, in the form of portfolio investment, is significant in raising risk-taking behavior. Large
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Financial Structure and Stability: An Empirical Exploration Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice Pub Date : 2020-07-01 Shikha Singh, Mandira Sarma
Abstract This paper attempts to investigate empirically whether financial and macroeconomic stability of economies are significantly affected by the structure of their financial systems, viz., bank-based and market-based structures. Using panel data estimations based on data from 82 countries for the period of 1996-2012, we find that in general, bank-based financial system contributes significantly
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Effects of Macroeconomic Environment on Non-Performing Loans and Financial Stability: Case of Bosnia and Herzegovina Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice Pub Date : 2020-05-01 Kemal Kozarić, Emina Žunić Dželihodžić
Abstract This paper analyses the impact of macroeconomic conditions on non-performing loans and financial stability in Bosnia and Herzegovina`s banking sector. The aim of this paper is to identify the effects of macroeconomic conditions on non-performing loans and the banking sector`s financial stability. To that end, data for the period 2006-2017 have been used. In order to detect the correlations
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Macro Stress Testing Credit Risk: Case of Madagascar Banking Sector Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice Pub Date : 2020-05-01 Miora Rakotonirainy, Jean Razafindravonona, Christian Rasolomanana
Abstract This study proposes to assess the vulnerability of banking sector’s credit portfolio under macroeconomic shocks and to evaluate its impact on banking system capitalization. Our method uses the Global Vector Autoregressive (GVAR) Model to generate adverse macroeconomic scenarios. The GVAR model is combining by the satellite credit risk equation to find the non-performing loan under stress conditions
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Web-based Financial Reporting Disclosure: Evidence from Selected Banks in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice Pub Date : 2020-05-01 Adel M. Sarea
Abstract With insights drawn from legitimacy theory undergirding perceived relative factors expected to influence the level of Web-Based Financial Reporting Disclosure (WBFRD), this paper sheds light on the level of the Web-Based Financial Reporting Disclosure (WBFRD) in selected banks in the KSA in 2017. Several gauges exist for measuring the level of transparency and disclosure practices. As a result
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Weighting on Systemic Important Banking (SIB) in Indonesia: The Official Versus PCA Approaches Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice Pub Date : 2020-05-01 Samsul Anwar
Abstract In determining its Domestic Systemic Important Banking (D-SIB), Indonesia implemented the Global Systemic Important Banking (G-SIB) based on three of five indicators, those being size, interconnectedness, and complexity. Both the G-SIB and the Indonesian D-SIB use an equal weight for each indicator, that is, 1/5 and 1/3 respectively. However, the weight could be modified by using the eigenvector
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Denoised Inflation: A New Measure of Core Inflation Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice Pub Date : 2020-05-01 Muhammad Nadim Hanif, Javaid Iqbal, Syed Hamza Ali, Muhammad Abdus Salam
Abstract Existing measures of core inflation ignore a part of ‘should be’ the core inflation. Exclusion based measures ‘exclude’ a part of persistent inflation inherently existing in the excluded part whereas filter based measures ‘filter-out’ the cyclical part also rather than the irregular component only. This study proposes a new idea to define and measure core inflation – noise free inflation or
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The Cost of Using Cash and Checks in Uruguay Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice Pub Date : 2020-05-01 Marcelo Álvez, Rodrigo Lluberas, Jorge Ponce
Abstract The incorporation of new technologies to financial activities implies challenges and opportunities to financial authorities. They are reacting to the unavoidable trend towards digitalization of financial activities with the objective of preserving stable and efficient payment and financial systems. Uruguay, for instance, has promoted the use of electronic payment instruments and tested in
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Exchange Rate Targeting Versus Inflation Targeting: Empirical Analysis of the Impact on Employment and Economic Growth Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice Pub Date : 2020-05-01 Borivoje Krušković
Abstract This paper analyses the effects of two alternative monetary strategies (exchange rate targeting and inflation targeting) on economic growth and employment. On the panel of 18 countries for the period from 1996 to 2013, I tested the hypothesis that countries in exchange rate targeting have a higher rate of GDP growth and lower inflation rate. In order to test the impact of exchange rate policy