In this paper, we examine the role of political connections in mitigating the detrimental impact of policy uncertainty on banks. Our estimates show that banks are more cautious when facing policy uncertainty, but that the effect is partially alleviated when banks are politically connected. For an increase of one standard deviation in policy uncertainty, connected banks maintain a loss provision to

We examine the effects of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) on cross-border mergers and acquisitions (CBAs). The results show that a higher degree of EPU at home retards the number and volume of inbound CBA deals. However, this effect is positively moderated by the host country’s better quality of institution, business environment and political risk. The bilateral acquirer-target country-pair investigation

We examine the impact on firm cash holdings of uncertainty of uncertainty, measured as the ex post volatility of economic policy uncertainty. Using the news-based index developed by Baker et al. (2016) for twenty-two countries, we find that, when there is greater volatility of economic uncertainty, firms hold more cash. Our results are robust to controlling for a host of firm-level and country-level

Using U.S. bank data from 1996 to 2013, this paper studies how liquidity risk affects bank performance in financial crises. It finds that during the subprime crisis of 2007–09, liquidity risk reduced a bank’s survival probability, ROA, and net interest margin, and increased its loan-loss-provision expenses. This adverse effect was more severe for banks with lower capital ratios and higher credit risk

We introduce this special issue on Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU) with a focus on how EPU affects allocative efficiency. We observe that EPU affects the market value of firms in about 37% of Fama–French 30 industries, but leads to lower investments in 90% of them. Allocation decisions in a market economy rely on signals from the capital market, which EPU distorts. This may cause increasing conflicts

This paper provides original evidence from institutional investors that political uncertainty greatly affects investment behavior. Using institutional holdings of common stock, we find that institutions significantly reduce their holdings by 0.8 to 2.3 percentage points during presidential election years. Such effect holds for gubernatorial elections with cross-state-border difference-in-difference

We empirically examine the effects of Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU) on earnings management in Japan. We find that EPU is negatively associated with earnings management, indicating that managers have incentive to reduce earnings management when EPU increases. We then examine the monitoring roles of various entities, focusing on the main bank that holds equity in their client firm. We find that the

We investigate the behavior of analyst earnings forecast error in response to policy uncertainty. We find that the accuracy of analyst forecasts is compromised at times of increased economic policy uncertainty, when market volatility and information opacity are high. This negative association between policy uncertainty and earnings forecast accuracy is alleviated in firms where good CSR practices are

In this paper, we explore whether economic uncertainty differently affects the default risk of Islamic and conventional banks. Using a sample of 568 banks from 20 countries between 2009 and 2018, we use the World Uncertainty Index (WUI) by Ahir et al. (2018) to conduct a study based on a comparable measure across countries. Our findings indicate that economic uncertainty increases the default risk

We simulate the impact on the nonbank liabilities of banks in a multiplex interbank environment arising from changes in currency exposure. Currency shocks as a source of financial contagion in the banking sector have not, so far, been considered. Our model considers two sources of contagion: shocks to nonbank assets and exchange rate shocks. Interbank loans can mature at different times. We demonstrate

We present a pricing model of bank bailout insurance guarantees against tail risk and empirical evidence that provides a rational explanation why big bank equities “underperform” relative to small banks during normal times while they “overperform” during crises. A new measure accounting for left-tail risk protection against losses conditional on a crisis explains the “underperformance” of large banks

We study the impact of higher bank capital requirements on corporate lending spreads using granular bank- and loan-level data. Our empirical strategy employs the heterogeneity in capital requirements across banks and time of implementation in Switzerland. We find that changes in the capital deviation from the regulatory minimum affect lending spreads asymmetrically. In response to a reduction in the

This paper analyses the evolution of the safety and soundness of the European banking sector during the various stages of the Basel process of capital regulation. We document the evolution of various measures of systemic risk as the Basel process unfolds. Most strikingly we find that the exposure to systemic risk as measured by SRISK has been steeply rising for the highest quintile, moderately rising

This study aims to investigate the impact of a wide range of economic and non-economic events on stock market spillover effects in a group of 16 major developed and emerging countries over the 2000–2020 period. We analyse the size and structure of contagion to verify how different events spread contagion across borders and sectors. We applied the methodology proposed by Diebold and Yilmaz (2009, 2012

Using a novel cross-European dataset on bank internationalization, the paper accounts for organizational and geographic complexity and evaluates its impact on systemic risk and how both the 2008–09 global financial crisis and the 2010–11 European sovereign debt crisis might have modified such an impact. Ahead of the crisis (2005–07), results suggest that bank complexity materially reduces systemic

We empirically investigate how bank internationalization, organizational complexity, and geographical complexity stemming from foreign-affiliate type and geographic dispersion affect parent bank stability and profitability. We base our analysis on unique, hand-collected data for the worldwide locations of subsidiaries and branches of EU banks. Our results show that internationalization benefits bank

In financial stability, it is essential to know the determinants of interest rates in interbank markets because they are important vehicles for liquidity allocation among banks and are relevant for monetary policy transmission. Recent research indicates that banks with excess liquidity exercise their market power by rationing liquidity during periods of financial stress. This confirms the value of

This paper argues that the European Union’s Banking Recovery and Resolution Directive (BRRD) has improved market discipline in the European bank market for unsecured debt. The different impact of the BRRD on bank bonds provides a quasi-natural experiment that allows us to study the effects of the BRRD within banks using a difference-in-difference approach. Identification is based on the fact that (otherwise

This study empirically investigates the relationship between customer concentration and corporate risk-taking. We find that overall customer concentration significantly reduces corporate risk-taking. However, the relationship varies across different settings. Specifically, the negative relationship between customer-base concentration and corporate risk-taking is only significantly present in more marketized

Climate change has been recently recognised as a new source of risk for the financial system. Over the last years, several central banks and financial supervisors have recommended investors and financial institutions to assess their exposure to climate-related financial risks. Central banks and financial supervisors have also started to design scenarios for climate stress tests - to- assess how vulnerable

We consider a network of equity mutual funds characterized by different levels of compliance with Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) aspects. We measure the impact of portfolio liquidation in a stress scenario on funds with different ESG ratings. Fire-sales spillover from portfolio liquidation propagates from one fund to another through indirect contagion mediated by common asset holdings

This paper investigates the risk of failure of loans guaranteed by public credit guarantee schemes. We analyse the determinants of the time to default of approximately 15,000 loans guaranteed by the Italian Central Guarantee Fund between 2007 and 2009. Using the Cox proportional hazards model, we test the role of the financial intermediary that requests the guarantee on a firm’s behalf, while distinguishing

We find that the movement of urban house prices in the U.S. has become more synchronized since the early 2000s. The elevated comovement is substantial, widespread, occurring for the majority of city-pairs, and continued even after the housing market turned to bust in 2007. We investigate whether and to what extent the comovement increase can be explained by banking integration following deregulations

This paper investigates the effects of ownership patterns on banks’ cost and profit efficiencies taking a sample of 607 commercial banks operating in 53 African countries during the period 2005–2015. Using pooled and modified true fixed effects (TFE) stochastic frontier panel approaches, we obtain two principal results. First, foreign-owned banks are not more profit or cost efficient than their domestic

We study the timing of the European Corporate Sector Purchase Program and its direct effect on corporate financing decisions. Consistent with the goal of reducing credit premia, more timely purchases are observed for eligible bonds characterized by higher credit risk. Firms effectively targeted increase their relative use of market debt and the maturity of newly issued bonds more than eligible but

This study develops an early warning system for financial crises with a focus on small open economies. We contribute to the literature by developing macro-financial dynamic factor models that extract useful information from a rich but unbalanced mixed frequency data set that includes a range of global and domestic economic and financial indicators. The framework is applied to several Asian countries—Thailand

We investigate the relationship between the going-public decision and firm risk. We employ a comprehensive sample of firms that went public on European stock exchanges from 2000 to 2015 and examine how the risks of these newly listed firms are different from those of private firms and long-listing firms. We find that compared with private firms, newly listed firms have significantly increased risks

We explore and summarize the evolution in bank capital regulations and bank risk after the global financial crisis. Using a new survey of bank regulation and supervision covering more than 120 economies, we show that regulatory capital increased, but some elements of capital regulations became laxer. Analyzing bank-level data, we also document the importance of defining bank regulatory capital narrowly

We investigate how investors perceive the adoption of the expected-loss model (ELM) for impairment incorporated in IFRS 9. Using a sample of European listed banks covering the period of the standard-setting process of IFRS 9, we examine whether the market perceives the new regulation to increase shareholder wealth. First, we document a positive market reaction to the ELM adoption events. Second, we

Which policies can increase the resilience of the financial system to climate risks? Recent evidence on the significant impacts of climate change and natural disasters on firms, banks and other financial institutions call for a prompt policy response. In this paper, we employ a macro-financial agent-based model to study the interaction between climate change, credit and economic dynamics and test a

We provide a new metric for the systemic importance of banks based on the intensity of spillovers of daily CDS movements. We denote this a bank’s Individual Systemic Risk (ISR). Our novel empirical tool uses Bayesian VAR to address the dimensionality problem in large networks of banks and maps for every pair of banks in the system the shocks that they exchange. We apply this tool to all banks that