We employ the R-vine copula approach to study the dependence structures between non-ferrous metal commodity futures on the London Metal Exchange, focusing on the comparison before and after structural breaks. We find that the center of the dependence structures between non-ferrous metal futures shifts from copper to zinc after the first structural break in 2008 and moves back to copper after the second

In this study, we address three key goals. First, we investigate the existence of outliers in commodity futures price data. Second, using an innovative and robust unsupervised machine learning outlier identification algorithm (UMLA), we investigate intervention models to filter the outlier effects. Third, using the specified UMLA models, we assess the impact of outliers on risk metrics of commodities

The LME is a major international commodity exchange for industrial metals. Both futures contracts and spot metals are traded there, and the textbook principle of the futures-spot convergence precisely holds there. In this paper, we formulate two claims about spot and futures return prediction. First, the predictors of futures price return should also predict spot price return with the same signs and

With a systematic approach, this study investigates the roles of the peak-valley prices and idiosyncratic factors in the information spillover mechanism between the electricity and carbon markets in Europe. Our findings show that electricity demand plays a crucial role in the idiosyncratic information spillover channel, especially in the risk spillover channel. Moreover, the German and Austrian electricity

The long-run behavior of real primary commodity prices, especially whether these series are trend stationary or contain a unit root, has been a topic of major debate in applied economics. In this paper, I perform a meta-analysis and combine the evidence of 12 representative studies on the subject in order to reach a unified conclusion about the presence of unit roots in these prices. The studies use

Cost management has received limited attention in the aquaculture industry due to historically high profit margins. This trend, however, is not likely to continue. This creates a need for knowledge on optimally managing financial risks. In this study, we address the joint input-output price hedging problem of salmon farmers. Along with salmon, we consider three essential commodities used in fish feed

We conduct a clinical analysis of the CBOT full membership that provides holders with rights to trade any of the exchange's contracts using a unique database of seat information from the period 1897–2020. We examine microstructure and asset pricing properties of seats including during periods before and following the CBOT's transition from trading primarily agriculture futures to financial futures

Using more than 140 years of data, we comprehensively analyze the predictive power of a broad set of business cycle variables for risk and return in commodity spot markets. We find that industrial production growth and inflation are the strongest predictors for future commodity returns. Several further variables help predict future commodity volatilities. The introduction of derivatives generally reduces

A measure of global economic activity (EA) is often used as input in macroeconometric models. Baumeister and Hamilton (2019) and Hamilton (2019) favor using the world industrial production index as a measure for global EA. Given the connections between variations in industrial production and demand for industrial commodities, such as crude oil, one is inclined to assume that changes in the world industrial

We examine how industry returns react to various oil shocks developed in Baumeister and Hamilton (2019) and find that oil supply shocks matter as much, if not more, as oil demand and economic activity shocks in driving industry returns. A long-short portfolio that buys (sells) industries benefiting (suffering) from negative oil supply shocks earns an initial abnormal monthly return of 0.88%. This return

This paper revisits the golden constant – gold's property of keeping constant purchasing power – via a comparison with a set of 17 commodities (energy, metals and agricultural products). We use graphical devices of the CPI-deflated commodity prices first, then stationarity tests designed to assess how fast the real prices of the commodities revert to their “constant” and, finally, measurements of their

In this paper, we model and forecast the volatility and correlation between oil prices and stock returns. Employing a recently innovated generalized autoregressive score (GAS) model based on the score function and using long historical data spanning from 1871 to 2020, we find a time-varying relationship between oil prices and stock returns. Specifically, the dynamic correlations between crude oil and

We document the properties of the first diversified commodity futures index introduced by the Dow Jones Company in 1933, and use its live track record to study the properties of the asset class in an experimental setting that does not suffer from backfill, selection, or survivorship biases. Despite the setbacks posed by contract failure and trading suspensions of several index constituents, the index

The recent financialization in commodity futures markets has prompted many calls for restricting speculative activity due to its detrimental effect on market quality. One aspect of market quality is that new information is instantaneously reflected in the price. This article studies how speculative activity affects informational efficiency of commodity futures markets. We document significant temporal

Increasingly commodities have become an asset class in a process called financialization. Many institutional investors, looking for ways to expand their diversification opportunities, are holding positions in a commodity futures index and use them as a performance benchmark. Thus, institutional commodity holdings in commodities has expanded significantly. In this paper we estimate the risk premium

This paper uses Meta-Granger analysis to explain and summarize the mixed results in the literature on the impact of financial speculation on commodity prices. The sample covers 2106 manually collected p-values from Granger causality (GC) tests reported in 54 prior studies. Our results show that the heterogeneity in previous findings can be largely explained by the commodity type under examination,

In August 2018, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) ceased its practice of early media access during lockup, in which the news media have access to crop and livestock reports ahead of scheduled announcements. News media no longer have a 90-min window to digest and write custom reports and are now subject to the same information distribution rules as the public. We examine the impact of this regulatory

The paper examines the impact of oil and gas price shocks on bank performance in the major oil and gas exporting GCC countries, using data for the period 2000–2017. Results indicate that oil and gas price rises have a direct bearing on bank performance through the channel of price-induced bank deposits and related lending to business activities. The negative impact on bank performance due to a drop

The paper studies the return–volatility relationship in a range of commodities. We develop a commodity price model and show that the volatility of price changes can be positively or negatively related to demand shocks. An “inverse leverage effect”—the volatility is higher following positive price shocks—is found in more than half of the daily spot prices. The effect is weaker in the three-month futures

The aim of this study was to examine the relationship between the oil price shock of 2014 and earnings management of oil companies listed on the Oslo Stock Exchange. The results revealed a significant increase in earnings management following the oil price drop. Moreover, we found that companies adjusted their earnings and abnormal income-decreasing accruals were identified during the third and fourth

This study compares the impact of Prospective Plantings, Acreage, Crop Production, Crop Production Annual Summary, Grain Stocks, WASDE, Cattle on Feed, and Hogs and Pigs reports on corn, soybean, wheat, cotton, live cattle, and lean hogs markets over 1985–2018. Simultaneous releases of several reports are handled by evaluating the impact of report clusters. Our approach allows us to demonstrate the

We examine price transmissions among farm, wholesale and retail U.S. beef markets using two types of retail price data, one collected by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), and the other one collected at the point of sale using electronic scanners. Using a test based on the simulation of nonlinear impulse response functions, we find no evidence of vertical asymmetric price transmissions in models

This paper evaluates an instance of large-scale hedging misfortune in the Australian sugar industry. A single corporation, known as Queensland Sugar Limited (QSL), was responsible for selling the entire volume of sugar exported from Australia. In 2010, QSL incurred over $100 million (2010 AUD) in hedging losses when harvest volumes were below expectations due to heavy La Niña rainfall. Sugar prices

Standard arguments suggest that mining companies lack sufficient market share to allow profitable exercise of monopoly power. However, low production and consumption elasticities can lead to prices being very sensitive to small supply disruptions. Metals are durable commodities. Supply from stock can offset the impacts of low elasticities in the short run but stocks also prolong the impact of any supply

We analyse forward prices observed at the Fishpool market, and propose a two-factor continuous-time stochastic process for modelling the time dynamics. The data analysis reveals that the two factors can be assumed to be a non-stationary compound Poisson process and a stationary continuous-time autoregressive dynamics, describing the bumps observed in the forward curves. We use the model to analyse

We examine the stock market reaction to disasters in potash mines. We use a sample of 55 mining accidents – natural and man-made - worldwide over the period 1986–2019. On average, the affected mining firms experience a cumulative drop in their market value of 1.15% in the first 2 ​day ​day of a disaster. We show also that the accidents impact stocks of the current and future (greenfield) competitors

Accurately forecasting commodity prices and transportation costs can be a major benefit to market participants. This is especially true with U.S. agricultural export commodities, such as corn and soybeans, that are characterized by small margins but large volume. Traditionally, market participants have relied on naïve methods for predicting barge rates, which represent the cost to transport the agriculture

Given the impact of changes in the price of crude oil on expected cash flows, rate of interest and inflation as well as investors’ increasingly utilization of crude oil as a financial asset, it is reasonable to suspect that we could substantially improve the accuracy of equity return volatility forecasts by conditioning on the price of crude oil. To evaluate this hypothesis, we carry out an out-of-sample

This research quantifies the risk reduction and price received when agricultural producers adopt new generation grain contracts (NGGCs) to hedge corn and soybean production. We explore the Accumulator, Average Price, Price Plus, Minimum Price, and Price Protection contracts and compare the performance measures of the average bushel price that would be received by the producer, the change in daily value

The emergence of energy commodity exchange-traded fund (ETFs) has provided an alternative vehicle for both energy commodity users (long hedgers) and producers (short hedgers) to hedge their respective exposures to unfavorable commodity energy price movements without opening a relatively expensive futures account. This paper examines the usefulness of ETFs in dealing with tail risk in crude oil, gasoline

This paper examines spillover effects among markets of crude oil and ten major agricultural commodities by employing the Diebold and Yılmaz (2009, 2012) spillover frameworks to returns and EGARCH filtered volatilities. We account for structural variations in data by dividing the data into two subsamples: from July 1986 to December 2005 (pre-2006 subsample) and from January 2006 to June 2016 (post-2006

Markets with time priority rules incentivize efforts to increase trading speeds. In particular, revenues resulting from liquidity provision due to discrete pricing can often accrue to the fastest traders, those who can hold favorable queue positions. We examine the impact of precedence rules for a single market that switched to a first-in-first-out (FIFO) matching algorithm from one primarily based