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Editorial Board Decision Analysis (IF 1.703) Pub Date : 2024-03-04
Decision Analysis, Volume 21, Issue 1, Page C2-C2, March 2024.
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Trends in Decision Analysis: A Reflection on the First 20 Years of the Journal Decision Analysis (IF 1.703) Pub Date : 2024-03-04 Vicki M. Bier
Decision Analysis, Volume 21, Issue 1, Page 1-3, March 2024.
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The Discount Rate for Investment Analysis Applying Expected Utility Decision Analysis (IF 1.703) Pub Date : 2024-02-20 Manel Baucells, Samuel E. Bodily
Decision Analysis, Ahead of Print.
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How to Control Waste Incineration Pollution? Cost-Sharing or Penalty Mechanism—Based on Two Differential Game Models Decision Analysis (IF 1.703) Pub Date : 2024-02-06 Huijie Li, Deqing Tan
Decision Analysis, Ahead of Print.
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Editorial Board Decision Analysis (IF 1.703) Pub Date : 2023-12-12
Decision Analysis, Volume 20, Issue 4, Page C2-C2, December 2023.
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Decision Analysis to Advance Environmental Sustainability Decision Analysis (IF 1.703) Pub Date : 2023-12-12 Kelly F. Robinson, Erin Baker, Elizabeth Ewing, Victoria Hemming, Melissa A. Kenney, Michael C. Runge
Decision Analysis, Volume 20, Issue 4, Page 243-251, December 2023.
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Appreciation to Referees, 2023 Decision Analysis (IF 1.703) Pub Date : 2023-11-14
Decision Analysis, Ahead of Print.
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Hide-and-Seek Game with Capacitated Locations and Imperfect Detection Decision Analysis (IF 1.703) Pub Date : 2023-10-25 Bastián Bahamondes, Mathieu Dahan
Decision Analysis, Ahead of Print.
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Lessons Learned in Applying Decision Analysis to Natural Resource Management for High-Stakes Issues Surrounded by Uncertainty Decision Analysis (IF 1.703) Pub Date : 2023-09-25 Kelly F. Robinson, Mark R. DuFour, Jason L. Fischer, Seth J. Herbst, Michael L. Jones, Lucas R. Nathan, Tammy J. Newcomb
Decision Analysis, Ahead of Print.
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Eliciting Informative Priors by Modeling Expert Decision Making Decision Analysis (IF 1.703) Pub Date : 2023-09-15 Julia R. Falconer, Eibe Frank, Devon L. L. Polaschek, Chaitanya Joshi
Decision Analysis, Ahead of Print.
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Prioritization of Species Status Assessments for Decision Support Decision Analysis (IF 1.703) Pub Date : 2023-09-11 Ashley B. C. Goode, Erin Rivenbark, Jessica A. Gilbert, Conor P. McGowan
Decision Analysis, Ahead of Print.
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Partitioning the Expected Value of Countermeasures with an Application to Terrorism Decision Analysis (IF 1.703) Pub Date : 2023-09-07 Richard S. John, Robin L. Dillon, William J. Burns, Nicholas Scurich
Decision Analysis, Ahead of Print.
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Editorial Board Decision Analysis (IF 1.703) Pub Date : 2023-09-06
Decision Analysis, Volume 20, Issue 3, Page C2-C2, September 2023.
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Assortment Planning with Satisficing Customers Decision Analysis (IF 1.703) Pub Date : 2023-07-18 Forough Pourhossein, Woonghee Tim Huh, Steven M. Shechter
Decision Analysis, Ahead of Print.
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A Decision Framework for Evaluating the Rocky Mountain Area Wildfire Dispatching System in Colorado Decision Analysis (IF 1.703) Pub Date : 2023-06-22 Erin J. Belval, Matthew P. Thompson
Decision Analysis, Ahead of Print.
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Editorial Board Decision Analysis (IF 1.703) Pub Date : 2023-06-13
Decision Analysis, Volume 20, Issue 2, Page C2-C2, June 2023.
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Balancing Tradeoffs in Climate-Smart Agriculture: Will Selling Carbon Credits Offset Potential Losses in the Net Yield Income of Small-Scale Soybean (Glycine max L.) Producers in the Mid-Southern United States? Decision Analysis (IF 1.703) Pub Date : 2023-05-22 Adrienne L. Contasti, Alexandra G. Firth, Beth H. Baker, John P. Brooks, Martin A. Locke, Dana J. Morin
Decision Analysis, Ahead of Print.
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From the Editor: Belated Recognition for the 2021 Clemen–Kleinmuntz Decision Analysis Best Paper Award Winner and Finalist Decision Analysis (IF 1.703) Pub Date : 2023-05-09 Vicki M. Bier
Decision Analysis, Ahead of Print.
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From the Editor and Chair of the Award Committee: 2022 Clemen–Kleinmuntz Decision Analysis Best Paper Award Decision Analysis (IF 1.703) Pub Date : 2023-05-09 Vicki M. Bier, Gilberto Montibeller
Decision Analysis, Ahead of Print.
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A Decision Theoretic Foundation for Noise Traders and Correlated Speculation Decision Analysis (IF 1.703) Pub Date : 2023-05-03 Mark Schneider, Manuel Nunez
Decision Analysis, Ahead of Print.
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From the Editors: New Decision Analysis Journal Submission Requirements Decision Analysis (IF 1.703) Pub Date : 2023-04-20 Vicki Bier, Simon French
Decision Analysis, Ahead of Print.
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A Simplified Method for Value of Information Using Constructed Scales Decision Analysis (IF 1.703) Pub Date : 2023-04-10 Michael C. Runge, Clark S. Rushing, James E. Lyons, Madeleine A. Rubenstein
Decision Analysis, Ahead of Print.
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Using Decision Analysis to Determine the Feasibility of a Conservation Translocation Decision Analysis (IF 1.703) Pub Date : 2023-03-31 Laura M. Keating, Lea Randall, Rebecca Stanton, Casey McCormack, Michael Lucid, Travis Seaborn, Sarah J. Converse, Stefano Canessa, Axel Moehrenschlager
Decision Analysis, Ahead of Print.
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Interdicting Attack Plans with Boundedly Rational Players and Multiple Attackers: An Adversarial Risk Analysis Approach Decision Analysis (IF 1.703) Pub Date : 2023-03-28 Eric DuBois, Ashley Peper, Laura A. Albert
Decision Analysis, Ahead of Print.
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Experimental Assessment of Utility Functions Induced by Fixed and Uncertain Targets Decision Analysis (IF 1.703) Pub Date : 2023-03-13 Maximilian Zellner, Ali E. Abbas
Decision Analysis, Ahead of Print.
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Editorial Board Decision Analysis (IF 1.703) Pub Date : 2023-03-08
Decision Analysis, Volume 20, Issue 1, Page C2-C2, March 2023.
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First Price Sealed-Bid Auctions with Bidders’ Heterogeneous Risk Behavior: An Adversarial Risk Analysis Approach Decision Analysis (IF 1.703) Pub Date : 2023-03-07 Muhammad Ejaz, Nisho Rani, Muhammad Ramzan Sheikh
Decision Analysis, Ahead of Print.
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Closing the Gap Between Decision Analysis and Policy Analysts Before the Next Pandemic Decision Analysis (IF 1.703) Pub Date : 2023-02-28 Robin L. Dillon, Vicki M. Bier, Richard Sheffield John, Abdullah Althenayyan
Decision Analysis, Ahead of Print.
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Optimal Ratcheting in Executive Compensation Decision Analysis (IF 1.703) Pub Date : 2023-02-06 Iny Hwang, Youngsoo Kim, Michael K. Lim
Decision Analysis, Ahead of Print.
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Group Structure and Information Distribution on the Emergence of Collective Intelligence Decision Analysis (IF 1.703) Pub Date : 2023-01-10 Ming Tang, Huchang Liao
Decision Analysis, Ahead of Print.
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Information Density in Decision Analysis Decision Analysis (IF 1.703) Pub Date : 2023-01-05 Gordon Hazen, Emanuele Borgonovo, Xuefei Lu
Decision Analysis, Ahead of Print.
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Determining the Accuracy of the Triangular and PERT Distributions Decision Analysis (IF 1.703) Pub Date : 2023-01-05 Imran A. Khan, J. Eric Bickel, Robert K. Hammond
Decision Analysis, Ahead of Print.
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A Closed-Form EVSI Expression for a Multinomial Data-Generating Process Decision Analysis (IF 1.703) Pub Date : 2022-11-23 Adam Fleischhacker, Pak-Wing Fok, Mokshay Madiman, Nan Wu
Decision Analysis, Volume 20, Issue 1, Page 73-84, March 2023.
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Pricing Decisions with Social Interactions: A Game-Theoretic Model Decision Analysis (IF 1.703) Pub Date : 2022-11-23 Xiaofang Wang, Yaoyao Yang, Jun Zhuang
Decision Analysis, Volume 20, Issue 1, Page 40-54, March 2023.
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The Legacy of Peter Fishburn: Foundational Work and Lasting Impact Decision Analysis (IF 1.703) Pub Date : 2022-11-23 Andrea C. Hupman, Jay Simon
Decision Analysis, Volume 20, Issue 1, Page 1-15, March 2023.
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Multipolar Security Cooperation Planning: A Multiobjective, Adversarial-Risk-Analysis Approach Decision Analysis (IF 1.703) Pub Date : 2022-08-24 William N. Caballero, Ethan Gharst, David Banks, Jeffery D. Weir
Decision Analysis, Volume 20, Issue 1, Page 16-39, March 2023.
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An Empirical Comparison of Rank-Based Surrogate Weights in Additive Multiattribute Decision Analysis Decision Analysis (IF 1.703) Pub Date : 2022-06-17 Roger Chapman Burk, Richard M. Nehring
Decision Analysis, Volume 20, Issue 1, Page 55-72, March 2023.
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Supporting Innovation in Early-Stage Pharmaceutical Development Decisions Decision Analysis (IF 1.703) Pub Date : 2022-04-07 Florian Methling,Steffen A. Borden,Deepak Veeraraghavan,Insa Sommer,Johannes Ulrich Siebert,Rüdiger von Nitzsch,Mark Seidler
Pharmaceutical companies have frequent portfolio reviews to monitor development progress and prioritize development assets. The earliest assets are drug candidates whose efficacy is unknown and whose effects on the human body have yet to be fully investigated. These assets are characterized by a high degree of uncertainty in reaching the market and in being used in clinical practice. In addition, not
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Methods for Eliciting Informative Prior Distributions: A Critical Review Decision Analysis (IF 1.703) Pub Date : 2022-04-01 Julia R. Falconer,Eibe Frank,Devon L. L. Polaschek,Chaitanya Joshi
Eliciting informative prior distributions for Bayesian inference can often be complex and challenging. Although popular methods rely on asking experts probability-based questions to quantify uncertainty, these methods are not without their drawbacks, and many alternative elicitation methods exist. This paper explores methods for eliciting informative priors categorized by type and briefly discusses
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Information Security Strategies for Information-Sharing Firms Considering a Strategic Hacker Decision Analysis (IF 1.703) Pub Date : 2022-03-23 Yong Wu,Mengyao Xu,Dong Cheng,Tao Dai
Information resources have been shared to promote the business operations of firms. However, the connection of business information sharing interfaces between firms has increased the attack surface and created opportunities for the hacker. We examine the benefits and risks of business information sharing for firms who exert security efforts against a strategic hacker that launches attacks subjectively
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Multiple Volatility Real Options Approach to Investment Decisions Under Uncertainty Decision Analysis (IF 1.703) Pub Date : 2022-03-23 Atul Chandra,Peter R. Hartley,Gopalan Nair
We present a novel multiple volatility real options approach (MVR) to value investment projects with embedded flexibility and affected by multiple uncertainties. A core innovation is the MVR decision tree composed of MVR synthetic tree components, each reflecting a unique binomial process that approximates a geometric Brownian motion of project value induced by one uncertainty source. MVR uses Monte
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Patchwork Constructions of Multiattribute Utility Functions Decision Analysis (IF 1.703) Pub Date : 2022-03-17 Jiehua Xie,Zhengyong Zhou
The construction of a representative multiattribute utility function is important in decision analysis. Existing methods focus mainly on constructions of utility functions on the whole domain of attributes. In some cases, decision makers may provide partial information on their local utility assessments. Therefore, it is a challenging and interesting task to construct utility functions that are compatible
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D Minus Months: Strategic Planning for Weather-Sensitive Decisions Decision Analysis (IF 1.703) Pub Date : 2022-03-01 Eva D. Regnier,Joel W. Feldmeier
General Eisenhower’s decisions to postpone and, one day later, to launch the “D-Day” invasion of Normandy are a gripping illustration of sequential decisions under uncertainty, suitable for any introductory decision analysis class. They’re also the archetypal example of weather-sensitive decision making using a forecast. This paper develops a framework for analyzing weather-sensitive decisions with
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Modeling Ethical and Operational Preferences in Automated Driving Systems Decision Analysis (IF 1.703) Pub Date : 2022-03-01 William N. Caballero,Roi Naveiro,David Ríos Insua
Whereas automated driving technology has made tremendous gains in the last decade, significant questions remain regarding its integration into society. Given its revolutionary nature, the use of automated driving systems (ADSs) is accompanied by myriad novel quandaries relating to both operational and ethical concerns that are relevant to numerous stakeholders (e.g., governments, manufacturers, and
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Cutoff Threshold Decisions for Classification Algorithms with Risk Aversion Decision Analysis (IF 1.703) Pub Date : 2022-03-01 Andrea C. Hupman
Classification algorithms predict the class membership of an unknown record. Methods such as logistic regression or the naïve Bayes algorithm produce a score related to the likelihood that a record belongs to a particular class. A cutoff threshold is then defined to delineate the prediction of one class over another. This paper derives analytic results for the selection of an optimal cutoff threshold
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Bundling Decisions for Selling Multiple Items in Online Auctions Decision Analysis (IF 1.703) Pub Date : 2022-03-01 Yeu-Shiang Huang,Min-Sheng Yang,Jyh-Wen Ho
Fueled by the widespread use of the internet, more and more ordinary people have now become merchandise sellers who sell their own possessions, such as antique collections and limited souvenirs, to buyers who are interested in such goods via online auctions. This study examines the decision making related to the bidding strategies used in online auctions by both sellers and buyers. When selling goods
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Balanced Opioid Prescribing via a Clinical Trade-Off: Pain Relief vs. Adverse Effects of Discomfort, Dependence, and Tolerance/Hypersensitivity Decision Analysis (IF 1.703) Pub Date : 2022-02-03 Abdullah Gökçınar,Metin Çakanyıldırım,Theodore Price,Meredith C. B. Adams
In the backdrop of the opioid epidemic, opioid prescribing has distinct medical and social challenges. Overprescribing contributes to the ongoing opioid epidemic, whereas underprescribing yields inadequate pain relief. Moreover, opioids have serious adverse effects including tolerance and increased sensitivity to pain, paradoxically inducing more pain. Prescribing trade-offs are recognized but not
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Elicitability of Instance and Object Ranking Decision Analysis (IF 1.703) Pub Date : 2022-01-25 Tino Werner
Assessing the quality of a forecasting model crucially depends on a proper scoring rule or suitable loss function. As for point forecasts, the existence of a strictly consistent loss function that allows for a fair comparison of competing forecast models has to be guaranteed, which means that the corresponding statistical functional has to be elicitable. We consider instance and object ranking problems
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A New Binary Programming Formulation and Social Choice Property for Kemeny Rank Aggregation Decision Analysis (IF 1.703) Pub Date : 2021-12-01 Yeawon Yoo,Adolfo R. Escobedo
Rank aggregation is widely used in group decision making and many other applications, where it is of interest to consolidate heterogeneous ordered lists. Oftentimes, these rankings may involve a large number of alternatives, contain ties, and/or be incomplete, all of which complicate the use of robust aggregation methods. In particular, these characteristics have limited the applicability of the aggregation
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Numerical Solution of Asymmetric Auctions Decision Analysis (IF 1.703) Pub Date : 2021-12-01 Timothy C. Au,David Banks,Yi Guo
We propose the backward indifference derivation (BID) algorithm, a new method to numerically approximate the pure strategy Nash equilibrium (PSNE) bidding functions in asymmetric first-price auctions. The BID algorithm constructs a sequence of finite-action PSNE that converges to the continuum-action PSNE by finding where bidders are indifferent between actions. Consequently, our approach differs from
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On (Measurable) Multiattribute Value Functions: An Expository Argument Decision Analysis (IF 1.703) Pub Date : 2021-12-01 James E. Smith,James S. Dyer
In this note, we provide an easy-to-understand introduction to strength-of-preference measures in the context of deterministic multiattribute value assessments, focusing on what they are and why they matter. Though these issues are well understood by some decision analysts, we believe that many do not understand or appreciate the role of strength-of-preference assumptions when assessing or interpreting
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Call for Papers on Decision Analysis to Further Environmental Sustainability Decision Analysis (IF 1.703) Pub Date : 2021-12-01 Vicki Bier
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Preference–Approval Structures in Group Decision Making: Axiomatic Distance and Aggregation Decision Analysis (IF 1.703) Pub Date : 2021-12-01 Yucheng Dong,Yao Li,Ying He,Xia Chen
Preference–approval structure combines the preference information of both ranking and approval, which extends the ordinal preference model by incorporating two categories of choice alternatives, that is, acceptable (good) and unacceptable (bad), in the preference modeling process. In this study, we present some axioms that imply the existence of a unique distance function of preference–approval structures
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From the Editor: 2020 Inaugural Clemen–Kleinmuntz Decision Analysis Best Paper Award Decision Analysis (IF 1.703) Pub Date : 2021-12-01 Vicki M. Bier
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A Characterization of Lexicographic Preferences Decision Analysis (IF 1.703) Pub Date : 2021-11-19 Mridu Prabal Goswami,Manipushpak Mitra,Debapriya Sen
This paper characterizes lexicographic preferences over alternatives that are identified by a finite number of attributes. Our characterization is based on two key concepts: a weaker notion of continuity called “mild continuity” (strict preference order between any two alternatives that are different with respect to every attribute is preserved around their small neighborhoods) and an “unhappy set”
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Stay Home or Not? Modeling Individuals’ Decisions During the COVID-19 Pandemic Decision Analysis (IF 1.703) Pub Date : 2021-09-07 Qifeng Wan,Xuanhua Xu,Kyle Hunt,Jun Zhuang
During the COVID-19 pandemic, staying home proved to be an effective way to mitigate the spread of the virus. Stay-at-home orders and guidelines were issued by governments across the globe and were followed by a large portion of the population in the early stages of the outbreak when there was a lack of COVID-specific medical knowledge. The decision of whether to stay home came with many trade-offs
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Sequential Shortest Path Interdiction with Incomplete Information and Limited Feedback Decision Analysis (IF 1.703) Pub Date : 2021-08-19 Jing Yang,Juan S. Borrero,Oleg A. Prokopyev,Denis Sauré
We study sequential shortest path interdiction, where in each period an interdictor with incomplete knowledge of the arc costs blocks at most [Formula: see text] arcs, and an evader with complete knowledge about the costs traverses a shortest path between two fixed nodes in the interdicted network. In each period, the interdictor, who aims at maximizing the evader’s cumulative cost over a finite time
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Adversarial Risk Analysis for Auctions Using Mirror Equilibrium and Bayes Nash Equilibrium Decision Analysis (IF 1.703) Pub Date : 2021-07-16 Muhammad Ejaz,Stephen Joe,Chaitanya Joshi
In this paper, we use the adversarial risk analysis (ARA) methodology to model first-price sealed-bid auctions under quite realistic assumptions. We extend prior work to find ARA solutions for mirror equilibrium and Bayes Nash equilibrium solution concepts, not only for risk-neutral but also for risk-averse and risk-seeking bidders. We also consider bidders having different wealth and assume that the
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Scoring Probability Forecasts by a User’s Bets Against a Market Consensus Decision Analysis (IF 1.703) Pub Date : 2021-06-14 David Johnstone,Stewart Jones,Oliver Jones,Steve Tulig
The purpose of our paper is to describe a probability scoring rule that reflects the economic performance of a hypothetical investor who acts upon the probability forecasts emanating from a given model or human expert by trading against a market-clearing consensus of competing models and forecasts. The probability forecasts being compared are aggregated by an equilibrium condition into a market consensus
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Project Valuation: Price Forecasts Bound to Discount Rates Decision Analysis (IF 1.703) Pub Date : 2021-06-01 Babak Jafarizadeh,Reidar B. Bratvold
For their appraisals, most companies use discount rates that account for timing and riskiness of projects. Yet, especially for commodity projects, discounting future cash flows is generally at odds with the assumptions in a company’s hurdle rate. With a multitude of technical and market uncertainties, inconsistent assessments lead to biased valuations and poor investment decisions. In this paper, we