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  • A translucent box: interpretable machine learning in ecology
    Ecol. Monogr. (IF 7.722) Pub Date : 2020-06-30
    Tim C.D. Lucas

    Machine learning has become popular in ecology but its use has remained restricted to predicting, rather than understanding, the natural world. Many researchers consider machine learning algorithms to be a black box. These models can however, with careful examination, be used to inform our understanding of the world. They are translucent boxes. Furthermore, the interpretation of these models can be

  • Testing Darwin’s naturalization conundrum based on taxonomic, phylogenetic, and functional dimensions of vascular plants
    Ecol. Monogr. (IF 7.722) Pub Date : 2020-06-02
    Jesús N. Pinto‐Ledezma; Fabricio Villalobos; Peter B. Reich; Jane A. Catford; Daniel J. Larkin; Jeannine Cavender‐Bares

    Charles Darwin posited two alternative hypotheses to explain the success of nonnative species based on their relatedness to natives: nonnative species that are closely related to native species could experience (1) higher invasion success because of an increased probability of habitat suitability (conferred by trait similarity) or (2) lower invasion success due to biotic interference, such as competition

  • Concordance of long‐term shifts with climate warming varies among phenological events and herbaceous species
    Ecol. Monogr. (IF 7.722) Pub Date : 2020-06-02
    Carol K. Augspurger; David N. Zaya

    Many temperate herbs now flower earlier than a few decades ago. Little is known about other phenological events, despite the importance of life history integration for plant fitness. This study addresses the hypothesis that temporal shifts of multiple phenological events in herbs are concordant with temporal changes in weather. Explicitly showing that changes in timing of annual life cycle events are

  • Experience may outweigh cue similarity in maintaining a persistent host‐plant‐based evolutionary trap
    Ecol. Monogr. (IF 7.722) Pub Date : 2020-05-14
    Rachel A. Steward; Carol L. Boggs

    Rapid environmental change can decouple previously reliable cues from important resources, causing specialized recognition systems to result in maladaptive behaviors. For native herbivorous insects, such evolutionary traps are often imposed by attractive invasive plants that prove harmful to their offspring. Despite the costs of ovipositing on a poor‐quality host, evolutionary traps are expected to

  • The evolution of extended parental care in glassfrogs: Do egg‐clutch phenotypes mediate coevolution between the sexes?
    Ecol. Monogr. (IF 7.722) Pub Date : 2020-05-13
    Jesse Delia; Laura Bravo‐Valencia; Karen M. Warkentin

    Many animals improve offspring survival through parental care. Research on coevolution between parents has provided key insight into the genesis and maintenance of biparental care. However, understanding family dynamics more broadly requires assessing potential male–female coevolutionary processes in the more widespread and common context of uniparental care. Here, we explore how pre‐zygotic maternal

  • Xylem vessel‐diameter–shoot‐length scaling: ecological significance of porosity types and other traits
    Ecol. Monogr. (IF 7.722) Pub Date : 2020-05-13
    Mark Olson; Julieta A. Rosell; Cecilia Martínez‐Pérez; Calixto León‐Gómez; Alex Fajardo; Sandrine Isnard; María Angélica Cervantes‐Alcayde; Alberto Echeverría; Víctor A. Figueroa‐Abundiz; Alí Segovia‐Rivas; Santiago Trueba; Karen Vázquez‐Segovia

    Flowering plants predominantly conduct water in tubes known as vessels, with vessel diameter playing a crucial role in plant adaptation to climate and reactions to climate change. The importance of vessels makes it essential to understand how and why vessel diameter, plant height, and other ecological factors are interrelated. Although shoot length is by far the main driver of variation in mean vessel

  • The relationship between trophic level and body size in fishes depends on functional traits
    Ecol. Monogr. (IF 7.722) Pub Date : 2020-05-02
    Friedrich W. Keppeler; Carmen G. Montaña; Kirk O. Winemiller

    Predators typically are larger than their prey, and consequently, trophic level should increase with body size. Whereas this relationship has helped in developing predictions about food web structure and dynamics in mesocosms and simple communities, a trophic‐level–body‐size relationship may not exist for all kinds of communities or taxa, especially those with many non‐carnivorous species. Moreover

  • Repeated fire shifts carbon and nitrogen cycling by changing plant inputs and soil decomposition across ecosystems
    Ecol. Monogr. (IF 7.722) Pub Date : 2020-04-29
    Adam F. A. Pellegrini; Sarah E. Hobbie; Peter B. Reich; Ari Jumpponen; E. N. Jack Brookshire; Anthony C. Caprio; Corli Coetsee; Robert B. Jackson

    Fires shape the biogeochemistry and functioning of many ecosystems, and fire frequencies are changing across much of the globe. Frequent fires can change soil carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) storage by altering the quantity and chemistry of plant inputs through changes in plant biomass and composition as well as altering decomposition of soil organic matter. How decomposition rates change with shifting

  • An assessment of population size and demographic drivers of the Bearded Vulture using integrated population models
    Ecol. Monogr. (IF 7.722) Pub Date : 2020-04-28
    Antoni Margalida; José Jiménez; José M. Martínez; José A. Sesé; Diego García‐Ferré; Alfonso Llamas; Martine Razin; MªÀngels Colomer; Beatriz Arroyo

    Conventional approaches for the assessment of population abundance or trends are usually based on a single source of information, such as counts or changes in demographic parameters. However, these approaches usually neglect some of the information needed to properly understand the population as a whole, such as assessments of the non‐breeding proportion of the population and the drivers of population

  • Experimental study of species invasion: early population dynamics and role of disturbance in invasion success
    Ecol. Monogr. (IF 7.722) Pub Date : 2020-04-18
    David N. Reznick; Sebastiano De Bona; Andrés López‐Sepulcre; Mauricio Torres; Ronald D. Bassar; Paul Benzen; Joseph Travis

    Much of our understanding of natural invasions is retrospective, based on data acquired after invaders become established. As a consequence, we know little about the characteristics of the early population growth and habitat use of the invaders during establishment. Here we report on experimental introductions of guppies into natural streams in which we conducted monthly censuses of each population

  • Long‐term shifts in the functional composition and diversity of a tropical dry forest: a 30‐yr study
    Ecol. Monogr. (IF 7.722) Pub Date : 2020-04-07
    Nathan G. Swenson; Catherine M. Hulshof; Masatoshi Katabuchi; Brian J. Enquist

    Over the past three decades, there has been a concerted effort to study the long‐term dynamics of tropical forests throughout the world. Data regarding temporal trends in species diversity, species composition, and species‐specific demographic rates have now been amassed. Such data can be utilized to test predictions regarding the roles the environment and demographic stochasticity play in driving

  • Functional diversity of leaf litter mixtures slows decomposition of labile but not recalcitrant carbon over two years
    Ecol. Monogr. (IF 7.722) Pub Date : 2020-04-03
    Jake J. Grossman; Jeannine Cavender‐Bares; Sarah E. Hobbie

    The decomposition of leaf litter constitutes a major pathway of carbon and nutrient cycling in terrestrial ecosystems. Though it is well established that litter decomposition varies among species, most leaf litter decomposes not alone, but in mixture with litter from heterospecifics. The consequences of this mixing, and of the role of multiple dimensions of plant biodiversity, for litter decomposition

  • Overfishing and the ecological impacts of extirpating large parrotfish from Caribbean coral reefs
    Ecol. Monogr. (IF 7.722) Pub Date : 2020-04-01
    Andrew A. Shantz; Mark C. Ladd; Deron E. Burkepile

    The unique traits of large animals often allow them to fulfill functional roles in ecosystems that small animals cannot. However, large animals are also at greater risk from human activities. Thus, it is critical to understand how losing large animals impacts ecosystem function. In the oceans, selective fishing for large animals alters the demographics and size structure of numerous species. While

  • Anthropogenic disturbance drives dispersal syndromes, demography, and gene flow in amphibian populations
    Ecol. Monogr. (IF 7.722) Pub Date : 2020-03-09
    Hugo Cayuela; Aurélien Besnard; Julien Cote; Martin Laporte; Eric Bonnaire; Julian Pichenot; Nicolas Schtickzelle; Arnaud Bellec; Pierre Joly; Jean‐Paul Léna

    There is growing evidence that anthropogenic landscapes can strongly influence the evolution of dispersal, particularly through fragmentation, and may drive organisms into an evolutionary trap by suppressing dispersal. However, the influence on dispersal evolution of anthropogenic variation in habitat patch turnover has so far been largely overlooked. In this study, we examined how human‐driven variation

  • Total ecosystem carbon stocks of mangroves across broad global environmental and physical gradients
    Ecol. Monogr. (IF 7.722) Pub Date : 2020-03-02
    J. Boone Kauffman; Maria Fernanda Adame; Virni Budi Arifanti; Lisa M. Schile‐Beers; Angelo F. Bernardino; Rupesh K. Bhomia; Daniel C. Donato; Ilka C. Feller; Tiago O. Ferreira; Maria del Carmen Jesus Garcia; Richard A. MacKenzie; J. Patrick Megonigal; Daniel Murdiyarso; Lorae Simpson; Humberto Hernández Trejo

    Mangroves sequester large quantities of carbon (C) that become significant sources of greenhouse gases when disturbed through land‐use change. Thus, they are of great value to incorporate into climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies. In response, a global network of mangrove plots was established to provide policy‐relevant ecological data relating to interactions of mangrove C stocks with

  • Quantifying water requirements of African ungulates through a combination of functional traits
    Ecol. Monogr. (IF 7.722) Pub Date : 2020-02-26
    Emilian S. Kihwele; Victor Mchomvu; Norman Owen‐Smith; Robyn S. Hetem; Matthew C. Hutchinson; Arjun B. Potter; Han Olff; Michiel P. Veldhuis

    Climate and land use change modify surface water availability in African savannas. Surface water is a key resource for both wildlife and livestock and its spatial and temporal distribution is important for understanding the composition of large herbivore assemblages in savannas. Yet, the extent to which ungulate species differ in their water requirements remains poorly quantified. Here, we infer the

  • Reviewing the role of plant litter inputs to forested wetland ecosystems: leafing through the literature
    Ecol. Monogr. (IF 7.722) Pub Date : 2020-02-03
    Aaron B. Stoler; Rick A. Relyea

    The input of senescent terrestrial leaf litter into soil and aquatic ecosystems is one of the most massive cyclic subsidies on Earth, particularly within forested ecosystems. For freshwater systems embedded within forests, litter inputs provide a vital source of energy and nutrients that allows greater production than in situ resources can provide. In return, freshwater food webs can provide an enormous

  • Urban soil carbon and nitrogen converge at a continental scale
    Ecol. Monogr. (IF 7.722) Pub Date : 2020-01-27
    Tara L. E. Trammell; Diane E. Pataki; Richard V. Pouyat; Peter M. Groffman; Carl Rosier; Neil Bettez; Jeannine Cavender‐Bares; Morgan J. Grove; Sharon J. Hall; James Heffernan; Sarah E. Hobbie; Jennifer L. Morse; Christopher Neill; Meredith Steele

    In urban areas, anthropogenic drivers of ecosystem structure and function are thought to predominate over larger‐scale biophysical drivers. Residential yards are influenced by individual homeowner preferences and actions, and these factors are hypothesized to converge yard structure across broad scales. We examined soil total C and total δ13C, organic C and organic δ13C, total N, and δ15N in residential

  • Clinal variation in drought resistance shapes past population declines and future management of a threatened plant
    Ecol. Monogr. (IF 7.722) Pub Date : 2020-01-22
    Paul D. Krushelnycky; Jesse M. Felts; Robert H. Robichaux; Kasey E. Barton; Creighton M. Litton; Matthew D. Brown

    Predicting vegetation responses to increased future drought is challenging, owing to the complex interaction of multiple factors influencing both plant drought resistance and local climatic conditions, each of which may be subject to spatial and temporal heterogeneity. We conducted a detailed study of potential mechanisms underlying an elevational gradient in mortality that has characterized recent

  • Multiple metrics of latitudinal patterns in insect pollination and herbivory for a tropical‐temperate congener pair
    Ecol. Monogr. (IF 7.722) Pub Date : 2020-01-22
    Carina A. Baskett; Lucy Schroeder; Marjorie G. Weber; Douglas W. Schemske

    The biotic interactions hypothesis posits that biotic interactions are more important drivers of adaptation closer to the equator, evidenced by “stronger” contemporary interactions (e.g., greater interaction rates) and/or patterns of trait evolution consistent with a history of stronger interactions. Support for the hypothesis is mixed, but few studies span tropical and temperate regions while experimentally

  • Flower traits, habitat, and phylogeny as predictors of pollinator service: a plant community perspective
    Ecol. Monogr. (IF 7.722) Pub Date : 2020-01-21
    Carlos M. Herrera

    Pollinator service is essential for successful sexual reproduction and long‐term population persistence of animal‐pollinated plants, and innumerable studies have shown that insufficient service by pollinators results in impaired sexual reproduction (“pollen limitation”). Studies directly addressing the predictors of variation in pollinator service across species or habitats remain comparatively scarce

  • Pulse of dissolved organic matter alters reciprocal carbon subsidies between autotrophs and bacteria in stream food webs
    Ecol. Monogr. (IF 7.722) Pub Date : 2020-01-08
    Benoît O. L. Demars; Nikolai Friberg; Barry Thornton

    Soils are currently leaching out dissolved organic matter (DOM) at an increasing pace due to climate and land use change or recovery from acidification. The implications for stream biogeochemistry and food webs remain largely unknown, notably the metabolic balance (biotic CO2 emissions) and carbon cycling between autotrophs and bacteria. We increased by 12% the flux of DOM in a stream for three weeks

  • Food quantity–quality interactions and their impact on consumer behavior and trophic transfer
    Ecol. Monogr. (IF 7.722) Pub Date : 2019-12-27
    Alfred Burian; Jens M. Nielsen; Monika Winder

    Food quantity–quality interactions determine growth rates and reproductive success of consumers and thereby regulate community dynamics and food web structure. Predator–prey models that shape our conceptual understanding of foraging ecology typically rely on the parametrization of fixed consumer responses to either food quantity or food quality. In nature, however, consumers optimize their fitness

  • Removal of grazers alters the response of tundra soil carbon to warming and enhanced nitrogen availability
    Ecol. Monogr. (IF 7.722) Pub Date : 2019-12-09
    Henni Ylänne; Elina Kaarlejärvi; Maria Väisänen; Minna K. Männistö; Saija H. K. Ahonen; Johan Olofsson; Sari Stark

    The circumpolar Arctic is currently facing multiple global changes that have the potential to alter the capacity of tundra soils to store carbon. Yet, predicting changes in soil carbon is hindered by the fact that multiple factors simultaneously control processes sustaining carbon storage and we do not understand how they act in concert. Here, we investigated the effects of warmer temperatures, enhanced

  • Spatiotemporal patterns of microbial composition and diversity in precipitation
    Ecol. Monogr. (IF 7.722) Pub Date : 2019-12-02
    Ken A. Aho; Carolyn F. Weber; Brent C. Christner; Boris A. Vinatzer; Cindy E. Morris; Rachel Joyce; Kevin C. Failor; Jason T. Werth; Aurora L. H. Bayless‐Edwards; David G. Schmale

    Microbes in the atmosphere have broad ecological impacts, including the potential to trigger precipitation through species and strains that act as ice nucleation particles. To characterize spatiotemporal trends of microbial assemblages in precipitation we sequenced 16S (bacterial) and 18S (fungal) rRNA gene amplicon libraries collected from 72 precipitation events in three U.S. states (Idaho, Louisiana

  • The impact of yeast presence in nectar on bumble bee behavior and fitness
    Ecol. Monogr. (IF 7.722) Pub Date : 2019-11-19
    María I. Pozo; Gaby van Kemenade; Annette van Oystaeyen; Tomás Aledón‐Catalá; Alfredo Benavente; Wim Van den Ende; Felix Wäckers; Hans Jacquemyn

    The presence of yeasts in pollen and floral nectar is rather the norm than the exception. Due to the metabolic activities of yeasts, sugar and amino acid composition of nectar often drastically change and may negatively impact the nutritional value of nectar for pollinators and hence insect fitness. On the other hand, the presence of yeasts in floral nectar may also increase its nutritional value due

  • Obtaining birth and mortality patterns from structured population trajectories.
    Ecol. Monogr. (IF 7.722) Pub Date : 1994-02-01
    S N Wood

    "A method is presented for unravelling the demographic equation for structured populations. A solution to the McKendrick-von Foerster equation is constructed using spline functions and this is fitted to stage-structured population data in such a way that the solution is smooth, positive, and does not imply negative death rates. The smoothness of the surface, and hence the complexity of the population

  • The ecology and evolution of seed predation by Darwin's finches on Tribulus cistoides on the Galápagos Islands
    Ecol. Monogr. (IF 7.722) Pub Date : 2019-10-21
    Sofía Carvajal‐Endara; Andrew P. Hendry; Nancy C. Emery; Corey P. Neu; Diego Carmona; Kiyoko M. Gotanda; T. Jonathan Davies; Jaime A. Chaves; Marc T. J. Johnson

    Predator–prey interactions play a key role in the evolution of species traits through antagonistic coevolutionary arms races. The evolution of beak morphology in the Darwin's finches in response to competition for seed resources is a classic example of evolution by natural selection. The seeds of Tribulus cistoides are an important food source for the largest ground finch species (Geospiza fortis,

  • Effects of soil microbes on plant competition: a perspective from modern coexistence theory
    Ecol. Monogr. (IF 7.722) Pub Date : 2019-10-21
    Po‐Ju Ke; Joe Wan

    Growing evidence shows that soil microbes affect plant coexistence in a variety of systems. However, since these systems vary in the impacts microbes have on plants and in the ways plants compete with each other, it is challenging to integrate results into a general predictive theory. To this end, we suggest that the concepts of niche and fitness difference from modern coexistence theory should be

  • Persistence and turnover in desert plant communities during a 37‐yr period of land use and climate change
    Ecol. Monogr. (IF 7.722) Pub Date : 2019-08-26
    Scott R. Abella; Ross J. Guida; Chris L. Roberts; Carrie M. Norman; James S. Holland

    Understanding long‐term changes in ecological communities during global change is a priority for 21st‐century ecology. Deserts, already at climatic extremes, are of unique interest because they are projected to be ecosystems most responsive to global change. Within a 500‐km2 landscape in the Mojave Desert, USA, we measured perennial plant communities at 100 sites three times (1979, 2008, and 2016)

  • Disentangling herbivore impacts in primary succession by refocusing the plant stress and vigor hypotheses on phenology
    Ecol. Monogr. (IF 7.722) Pub Date : 2019-08-23
    Christian Che‐Castaldo; Charlie M. Crisafulli; John G. Bishop; Elise F. Zipkin; William F. Fagan

    The plant stress and plant vigor hypotheses are widely used to explain the distribution and abundance of insect herbivores across their host plants. These hypotheses are the subject of contentious debate within the plant herbivore research community, with several studies finding simultaneous support for both hypotheses for the same plant–herbivore interaction. We address the question of how such support

  • Demographic and population responses of an apex predator to climate and its prey: a long‐term study of South Polar Skuas
    Ecol. Monogr. (IF 7.722) Pub Date : 2019-08-13
    Nathan Pacoureau; Karine Delord; Stéphanie Jenouvrier; Christophe Barbraud

    Ecologists widely acknowledge that a complex interplay of endogenous (density‐dependent) and exogenous (density‐independent) factors impact demographic processes. Individuals respond differently to those forces, ultimately shaping the dynamics of wild populations. Most comprehensive studies disentangling simultaneously the effects of density dependence, climate, and prey abundance while taking into

  • Geographic variation in the intensity of warming and phenological mismatch between Arctic shorebirds and invertebrates
    Ecol. Monogr. (IF 7.722) Pub Date : 2019-07-24
    Eunbi Kwon; Emily L. Weiser; Richard B. Lanctot; Stephen C. Brown; Heather R. Gates; Grant Gilchrist; Steve J. Kendall; David B. Lank; Joseph R. Liebezeit; Laura McKinnon; Erica Nol; David C. Payer; Jennie Rausch; Daniel J. Rinella; Sarah T. Saalfeld; Nathan R. Senner; Paul A. Smith; David Ward; Robert W. Wisseman; Brett K. Sandercock

    Responses to climate change can vary across functional groups and trophic levels, leading to a temporal decoupling of trophic interactions or “phenological mismatches.” Despite a growing number of single‐species studies that identified phenological mismatches as a nearly universal consequence of climate change, we have a limited understanding of the spatial variation in the intensity of this phenomenon

  • Climate outweighs native vs. nonnative range‐effects for genetics and common garden performance of a cosmopolitan weed
    Ecol. Monogr. (IF 7.722) Pub Date : 2019-07-22
    Christoph Rosche; Isabell Hensen; Adrian Schaar; Uzma Zehra; Marie Jasieniuk; Ragan M. Callaway; Damase P. Khasa; Mohammad M. Al‐Gharaibeh; Ylva Lekberg; Dávid U. Nagy; Robert W. Pal; Miki Okada; Karin Schrieber; Kathryn G. Turner; Susanne Lachmuth; Andrey Erst; Tomonori Tsunoda; Min Sheng; Robin Schmidt; Yanling Peng; Wenbo Luo; Yun Jäschke; Zafar A. Reshi; Manzoor A. Shah

    Comparing genetic diversity, genetic differentiation, and performance between native and nonnative populations has advanced our knowledge of contemporary evolution and its ecological consequences. However, such between‐range comparisons can be complicated by high among‐population variation within native and nonnative ranges. For example, native vs. nonnative comparisons between small and non‐representative

  • Foodwebs based on unreliable foundations: spatiotemporal masting merged with consumer movement, storage, and diet
    Ecol. Monogr. (IF 7.722) Pub Date : 2019-07-17
    James S. Clark; Chase L. Nuñez; Bradley Tomasek

    Mast‐fruiting trees represent a pulsed resource that both supports and destabilizes consumer populations. Whereas a reliable resource is abundant on average and with limited variation in time and space, masting is volatile and localized, and that variability ramifies throughout food‐webs. Theory is developed to evaluate how the space–time structure of masting interacts with consumers who exploit alternative

  • How extreme is extreme? Demographic approaches inform the occurrence and ecological relevance of extreme events
    Ecol. Monogr. (IF 7.722) Pub Date : 2019-07-16
    Christopher E. Latimer; Benjamin Zuckerberg

    Projected increases in the variability of both temperature and precipitation will result in the greater likelihood and magnitude of extreme weather (e.g., cold snaps, droughts, heat waves) with potential implications for animal populations. Despite the ecological consequences of extreme weather, there are several challenges in identifying extreme events and measuring their influence on key demographic

  • Compound‐specific isotope analysis of amino acids as a new tool to uncover trophic chains in soil food webs
    Ecol. Monogr. (IF 7.722) Pub Date : 2019-07-09
    Melanie M. Pollierer; Thomas Larsen; Anton Potapov; Adrian Brückner; Michael Heethoff; Jens Dyckmans; Stefan Scheu

    Food webs in soil differ fundamentally from those aboveground; they are based on inputs from both living plants via root exudates, and from detritus, which is a complex mixture of fungi, bacteria, and dead plant remains. Trophic relationships are difficult to disentangle due to the cryptic lifestyle of soil animals and inevitable microbial contributions to their diet. Compound‐specific isotope analysis

  • Plant responses to nutrient addition experiments conducted in tropical forests
    Ecol. Monogr. (IF 7.722) Pub Date : 2019-07-09
    S. Joseph Wright

    I present a meta‐analysis of plant responses to 48 nutrient addition experiments conducted with native species in naturally growing tropical forests, exclusive of mangrove forests. The added nutrients include nitrogen (N) in 36 experiments, phosphorus (P) in 33 experiments, calcium and potassium in one experiment each, and various mixtures of essential nutrients in the remaining experiments. I evaluate

  • Experimental nitrogen addition alters structure and function of a boreal bog: critical load and thresholds revealed
    Ecol. Monogr. (IF 7.722) Pub Date : 2019-06-18
    R. Kelman Wieder; Dale H. Vitt; Melanie A. Vile; Jeremy A. Graham; Jeremy A. Hartsock; Hope Fillingim; Melissa House; James C. Quinn; Kimberli D. Scott; Meaghan Petix; Kelly J. McMillen

    Bogs and fens cover 6% and 21%, respectively, of the 140,329 km2 Oil Sands Administrative Area in northern Alberta. Development of the oil sands has led to increasing atmospheric N deposition, with values as high as 17 kg N·ha−1·yr−1; regional background deposition is <2 kg N·ha−1·yr−1. Bogs, being ombrotrophic, may be especially susceptible to increasing N deposition. To examine responses to N deposition

  • A comprehensive evaluation of predictive performance of 33 species distribution models at species and community levels
    Ecol. Monogr. (IF 7.722) Pub Date : 2019-06-12
    Anna Norberg; Nerea Abrego; F. Guillaume Blanchet; Frederick R. Adler; Barbara J. Anderson; Jani Anttila; Miguel B. Araújo; Tad Dallas; David Dunson; Jane Elith; Scott D. Foster; Richard Fox; Janet Franklin; William Godsoe; Antoine Guisan; Bob O'Hara; Nicole A. Hill; Robert D. Holt; Francis K. C. Hui; Magne Husby; John Atle Kålås; Aleksi Lehikoinen; Miska Luoto; Heidi K. Mod; Graeme Newell; Ian Renner;

    A large array of species distribution model (SDM) approaches has been developed for explaining and predicting the occurrences of individual species or species assemblages. Given the wealth of existing models, it is unclear which models perform best for interpolation or extrapolation of existing data sets, particularly when one is concerned with species assemblages. We compared the predictive performance

  • Preferential sampling for presence/absence data and for fusion of presence/absence data with presence‐only data
    Ecol. Monogr. (IF 7.722) Pub Date : 2019-06-10
    Alan E. Gelfand; Shinichiro Shirota

    Presence/absence data and presence‐only data are the two customary sources for learning about species distributions over a region. We present an ambitious agenda with regard to the analysis of such data. We illuminate the fundamental modeling differences between the two types of data. Most simply, locations are considered to be fixed under presence/absence data; locations are random under presence‐only

  • Propagule pressure and genetic diversity enhance colonization by a ruderal species: a multi‐generation field experiment
    Ecol. Monogr. (IF 7.722) Pub Date : 2019-05-23
    Stephen M. Hovick; Kenneth D. Whitney

    Colonization is a critical filter, setting the stage for short‐term and long‐term population success. Increased propagule pressure (e.g., more founding individuals) usually enhances colonization; however, this pattern may be driven by purely numeric effects, population genetic diversity effects, or both. To determine the independent and interactive effects of propagule pressure and genetic diversity

  • Connected macroalgal‐sediment systems: blue carbon and food webs in the deep coastal ocean
    Ecol. Monogr. (IF 7.722) Pub Date : 2019-05-23
    Ana Moura Queirós; Nicholas Stephens; Stephen Widdicombe; Karen Tait; Sophie J. McCoy; Jeroen Ingels; Saskia Rühl; Ruth Airs; Amanda Beesley; Giorgia Carnovale; Pierre Cazenave; Sarah Dashfield; Er Hua; Mark Jones; Penelope Lindeque; Caroline L. McNeill; Joana Nunes; Helen Parry; Christine Pascoe; Claire Widdicombe; Tim Smyth; Angus Atkinson; Dorte Krause‐Jensen; Paul J. Somerfield

    Macroalgae drive the largest CO2 flux fixed globally by marine macrophytes. Most of the resulting biomass is exported through the coastal ocean as detritus and yet almost no field measurements have verified its potential net sequestration in marine sediments. This gap limits the scope for the inclusion of macroalgae within blue carbon schemes that support ocean carbon sequestration globally, and the

  • Plant selection initiates alternative successional trajectories in the soil microbial community after disturbance
    Ecol. Monogr. (IF 7.722) Pub Date : 2019-05-21
    Marie Duhamel; Joe Wan; Laura M. Bogar; R. Max Segnitz; Nora C. Duncritts; Kabir G. Peay

    Because interactions between plants and microbial organisms can influence species diversity and rates of nutrient cycling, how plants shape microbial communities is fundamental to understanding the structure of ecosystems. Despite this, the spatial and temporal scales over which plants influence microbial communities is poorly understood, particularly whether past abiotic or biotic legacies strongly

  • Regional variation in interior Alaskan boreal forests is driven by fire disturbance, topography, and climate
    Ecol. Monogr. (IF 7.722) Pub Date : 2019-05-20
    Carl A. Roland; Joshua H. Schmidt; Samantha G. Winder; Sarah E. Stehn; E. Fleur Nicklen

    High latitude regions are warming rapidly with important ecological and societal consequences. Utilizing two landscape‐scale data sets from interior Alaska, we compared patterns in forest structure in two regions with differing fire disturbance, topography, and summer climate norms. Our goal was to evaluate a set of hypotheses concerning possible warming‐driven changes in forest structure suggested

  • Indirect legacy effects of an extreme climatic event on a marine megafaunal community
    Ecol. Monogr. (IF 7.722) Pub Date : 2019-04-25
    Robert Nowicki; Michael Heithaus; Jordan Thomson; Derek Burkholder; Kirk Gastrich; Aaron Wirsing

    While extreme climatic events (ECEs) are predicted to become more frequent, reliably predicting their impacts on consumers remains challenging, particularly for large consumers in marine environments. Many studies that do evaluate ECE effects focus primarily on direct effects, though indirect effects can be equally or more important. Here, we investigate the indirect impacts of the 2011 “Ningaloo Niño”

  • IPM2: toward better understanding and forecasting of population dynamics
    Ecol. Monogr. (IF 7.722) Pub Date : 2019-03-28
    Floriane Plard; Daniel Turek; Martin U. Grüebler; Michael Schaub

    Dynamic population models typically aim to predict demography and the resulting population dynamics in relation to environmental variation. However, they rarely include the diversity of individual responses to environmental changes, thus hampering our understanding of demographic mechanisms. We develop an integrated integral projection model (IPM2) that is a combination of an integrated population

  • Emerging reservoir delta‐backwaters: biophysical dynamics and riparian biodiversity
    Ecol. Monogr. (IF 7.722) Pub Date : 2019-03-19
    Malia A. Volke; W. Carter Johnson; Mark D. Dixon; Michael L. Scott

    Deltas and backwater‐affected bottomlands are forming along tributary and mainstem confluences in reservoirs worldwide. Emergence of prograding deltas, along with related upstream hydrogeomorphic changes to river bottomlands in the backwater fluctuation zones of reservoirs, signals the development of new and dynamic riparian and wetland habitats. This study was conducted along the regulated Missouri

  • Eighteen years of ecological monitoring reveals multiple lines of evidence for tundra vegetation change
    Ecol. Monogr. (IF 7.722) Pub Date : 2019-03-12
    Isla H. Myers‐Smith; Meagan M. Grabowski; Haydn J. D. Thomas; Sandra Angers‐Blondin; Gergana N. Daskalova; Anne D. Bjorkman; Andrew M. Cunliffe; Jakob J. Assmann; Joseph S. Boyle; Edward McLeod; Samuel McLeod; Ricky Joe; Paden Lennie; Deon Arey; Richard R. Gordon; Cameron D. Eckert

    The Arctic tundra is warming rapidly, yet the exact mechanisms linking warming and observed ecological changes are often unclear. Understanding mechanisms of change requires long‐term monitoring of multiple ecological parameters. Here, we present the findings of a collaboration between government scientists, local people, park rangers, and academic researchers that provide insights into changes in

  • Novel bird responses to successive, large‐scale, landscape transformations
    Ecol. Monogr. (IF 7.722) Pub Date : 2019-03-11
    David B. Lindenmayer; Wade Blanchard; Martin J. Westgate; Claire Foster; Sam C. Banks; Philip Barton; Mason Crane; Karen Ikin; Ben C. Scheele

    Transformation of intact vegetation into new kinds and configurations of human‐modified habitats is a well‐established driver of biodiversity loss. Following initial conversion, many human‐dominated landscapes are then subject to further large‐scale changes in land use. The impacts on biodiversity of repeated changes in land use remain poorly known, particularly how changes in the matrix interact with

  • Biases in studies of spatial patterns in insect herbivory
    Ecol. Monogr. (IF 7.722) Pub Date : 2019-03-08
    Elena L. Zvereva; Mikhail V. Kozlov

    The properties of the human mind are responsible for a number of biases that affect the quality of scientific research. However, scientists working in the fields of ecology and environmental science rarely take these biases into account. We conducted a meta‐analysis of data extracted from 125 publications comparing woody plant damage by defoliating insects in different environments in order to understand

  • Dominance network analysis provides a new framework for studying the diversity–stability relationship
    Ecol. Monogr. (IF 7.722) Pub Date : 2019-03-06
    Zhanshan (Sam) Ma; Aaron M. Ellison

    The diversity–stability relationship is a long‐standing, central focus of community ecology. Two major challenges have impeded studies of the diversity–stability relationship (DSR): the difficulty in obtaining high‐quality longitudinal data sets; and the lack of a general theoretical framework that can encompass the enormous complexity inherent in “diversity,” “stability,” and their many interactions

  • The intrinsic predictability of ecological time series and its potential to guide forecasting
    Ecol. Monogr. (IF 7.722) Pub Date : 2019-03-05
    Frank Pennekamp; Alison C. Iles; Joshua Garland; Georgina Brennan; Ulrich Brose; Ursula Gaedke; Ute Jacob; Pavel Kratina; Blake Matthews; Stephan Munch; Mark Novak; Gian Marco Palamara; Björn C. Rall; Benjamin Rosenbaum; Andrea Tabi; Colette Ward; Richard Williams; Hao Ye; Owen L. Petchey

    Successfully predicting the future states of systems that are complex, stochastic, and potentially chaotic is a major challenge. Model forecasting error (FE) is the usual measure of success; however model predictions provide no insights into the potential for improvement. In short, the realized predictability of a specific model is uninformative about whether the system is inherently predictable or

  • Multiple mechanisms confer stability to isolated populations of a rare endemic plant
    Ecol. Monogr. (IF 7.722) Pub Date : 2019-03-04
    Reilly R. Dibner; Megan L. Peterson; Allison M. Louthan; Daniel F. Doak

    The persistence of small populations remains a puzzle for ecology and conservation. Especially interesting is how naturally small, isolated populations are able to persist in the face of multiple environmental forces that create fluctuating conditions and should, theory predicts, lead to high probabilities of extirpation. We used a combination of long‐term census data and a five‐year demographic study

  • Spatially structured statistical network models for landscape genetics
    Ecol. Monogr. (IF 7.722) Pub Date : 2019-02-27
    Erin E. Peterson; Ephraim M. Hanks; Mevin B. Hooten; Jay M. Ver Hoef; Marie‐Josée Fortin

    A basic understanding of how the landscape impedes, or creates resistance to, the dispersal of organisms and hence gene flow is paramount for successful conservation science and management. Spatially structured ecological networks are often used to represent spatial landscape‐genetic relationships, where nodes represent individuals or populations and resistance to movement is represented using non‐binary

  • Phylofactorization: a graph partitioning algorithm to identify phylogenetic scales of ecological data
    Ecol. Monogr. (IF 7.722) Pub Date : 2019-02-19
    Alex D. Washburne; Justin D. Silverman; James T. Morton; Daniel J. Becker; Daniel Crowley; Sayan Mukherjee; Lawrence A. David; Raina K. Plowright

    The problem of pattern and scale is a central challenge in ecology. In community ecology, an important scale is that at which we aggregate species to define our units of study, such as aggregation of “nitrogen fixing trees” to understand patterns in carbon sequestration. With the emergence of massive community ecological data sets, there is a need to objectively identify the scales for aggregating

  • Nitrogen deposition and climate change effects on tree species composition and ecosystem services for a forest cohort
    Ecol. Monogr. (IF 7.722) Pub Date : 2019-02-05
    George Van Houtven; Jennifer Phelan; Christopher Clark; Robert D. Sabo; John Buckley; R. Quinn Thomas; Kevin Horn; Stephen D. LeDuc

    The composition of forests in the northeastern United States and the ecosystem services they provide to future generations will depend on several factors. In this paper, we isolate the effects of two environmental drivers, nitrogen (N) deposition and climate (temperature and precipitation) change, through an analysis of a single cohort of 24 dominant tree species. We assembled a tree database using

  • Size, weapons, and armor as predictors of competitive outcomes in fossil and contemporary marine communities
    Ecol. Monogr. (IF 7.722) Pub Date : 2019-02-01
    L. H. Liow; T. Reitan; K. L. Voje; P. D. Taylor; E. Di Martino

    Inter‐ and intraspecific competition are usually observed over a few generations but their patterns and consequences are seldom tractable in natural systems over longer timescales relevant to macroevolutionary change. Here, we use win‐draw‐lose competitive overgrowths for a marine benthic community of encrusting bryozoans that have evolved together in New Zealand for at least 2.3 million years to investigate

  • Phenology as a process rather than an event: from individual reaction norms to community metrics
    Ecol. Monogr. (IF 7.722) Pub Date : 2019-02-01
    Brian D. Inouye; Johan Ehrlén; Nora Underwood

    Measures of the seasonal timing of biological events are key to addressing questions about how phenology evolves, modifies species interactions, and mediates biological responses to climate change. Phenology is often characterized in terms of discrete events, such as a date of first flowering or arrival of first migrants. We discuss how phenological events that are typically measured at the population

  • Trajectory analysis in community ecology
    Ecol. Monogr. (IF 7.722) Pub Date : 2019-01-31
    Miquel De Cáceres; Lluís Coll; Pierre Legendre; Robert B. Allen; Susan K. Wiser; Marie‐Josée Fortin; Richard Condit; Stephen Hubbell

    Ecologists have long been interested in how communities change over time. Addressing questions about community dynamics requires ways of representing and comparing the variety of dynamics observed across space. Until now, most analytical frameworks have been based on the comparison of synchronous observations across sites and between repeated surveys. An alternative perspective considers community

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