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Like a summer storm: Biothermodynamic analysis of Rotavirus A - Empirical formula, biosynthesis reaction and driving force of virus multiplication and antigen-receptor binding Microb. Risk Anal. (IF 2.8) Pub Date : 2024-02-08 Marko E. Popović, Gavrilo Šekularac, Marija Mihailović
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The wind of change: Gibbs energy of binding and infectivity evolution of Omicron BA.2.86 Pirola, EG.5.1, XBB.1.16 Arcturus, CH.1.1 and BN.1 variants of SARS-CoV-2 Microb. Risk Anal. (IF 2.8) Pub Date : 2024-02-01 Marko E. Popović, Gavrilo Šekularac, Marta Popović
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Guidelines for elevator design to mitigate the risk of spread of airborne diseases Microb. Risk Anal. (IF 2.8) Pub Date : 2023-12-01 Pravin M. Tipnis, Parag Chaware, Vinay G Vaidya
Airborne viral transmission in confined spaces, such as elevators, could lead to the spread of diseases such as COVID-19. A quantitative study of viral transmission in enclosed spaces, with a focus on assessing the efficacy of the present ventilation methods is hard to find. Additionally, there is a lack of guidelines for viral dispersion. The non-availability of such information reduces overall effectiveness
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Death from the Nile: Empirical formula, molar mass, biosynthesis reaction and Gibbs energy of biosynthesis of the West Nile virus Microb. Risk Anal. (IF 2.8) Pub Date : 2023-10-17 Marko Popovic, Marta Popovic, Gavrilo Šekularac
From July to October, West Nile virus is the leading cause of mosquito born disease in Europe and North America. This paper reports for the first time a chemical and thermodynamic analysis of the West Nile virus particles, genome and proteins, as well as interactions with its host organism. The empirical formula of mature West Nile virus particles was found through the atom counting method. Based on
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Eris - another brick in the wall: Empirical formulas, molar masses, biosynthesis reactions, enthalpy, entropy and Gibbs energy of Omicron EG.5 Eris and EG.5.1 variants of SARS-CoV-2 Microb. Risk Anal. (IF 2.8) Pub Date : 2023-10-18 Marko E. Popović, Marijana Pantović Pavlović, Marta Popović
Since 2019, when it appeared in Wuhan, in the wild type form later labeled Hu-1, SARS-CoV-2 mutated dozens of times and evolved towards increase in infectivity and decrease or maintenance of constant pathogenicity through dozens of variants. The last of them are Omicron EG.5 and EG.5.1. Until 2019, an empirical formula was known only for the poliovirus. Until now empirical formulas and thermodynamic
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Spatial risk assessment of ovine Scrapie in Brazil Microb. Risk Anal. (IF 2.8) Pub Date : 2023-10-20 Paulo Gomes do Nascimento Corrêa, Francisco Alyson Silva Oliveira, Rivanni Jeniffer Souza Castro, Carlos Thiago Silveira Alvim Mendes de Oliveira, Glenda Lídice de Oliveira Cortez Marinho, Abelardo Silva Júnior, Ricardo Antonio Pilegi Sfaciotte, David Germano Gonçalves Schwarz
Brazilian sheep farming is an ancient socioeconomic activity of great importance for maintaining income and generating family employment. Brazil is the largest producer of sheep in South America, making it a strategic country for the control of infectious diseases such as scrapie. In the present study, scrapie was officially reported in 74 cases in nine Brazilian states between 2005 and 2021. Among
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Modelling the kinetics of Staphylococcus aureus in goat's raw milk under different sub-pasteurisation temperatures Microb. Risk Anal. (IF 2.8) Pub Date : 2023-10-14 Beatriz Nunes Silva, Sara Coelho-Fernandes, José António Teixeira, Vasco Cadavez, Ursula Gonzales-Barron
In this study, the heat resistance of S. aureus in goats’ raw milk subjected to thermisation temperatures was characterised through tests at various temperatures and modelling the survival curves using the Weibull model, through a two-step and an omnibus approach, which can model a full dataset covering all experimental conditions in one step. The fitting capacity of the secondary models obtained from
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A comparative study between the top 10 origin countries involved in the EU RASFF notifications on aflatoxins from 1997 to 2022 Microb. Risk Anal. (IF 2.8) Pub Date : 2023-09-27 Fawzy Eissa, Ahmed Salem Sebaei
Aflatoxin B1 (AFB1), is among the most carcinogenic and genotoxic food and feed contaminants and there is no acceptable level of their intake. An analysis of the top 10 countries of origin notifications on aflatoxins (AFs) involved in the EU RASFF database over the last 26 years was undertaken. A risk assessment was estimated for simulating the worst-case scenario for the serious notifications of the
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In silico binding affinity of the spike protein with ACE2 and the relative evolutionary distance of S gene may be potential factors rapidly obtained for the initial risk of SARS-CoV-2 Microb. Risk Anal. (IF 2.8) Pub Date : 2023-09-24 Aki Sugano, Junon Murakami, Haruyuki Kataguchi, Mika Ohta, Yoshiaki Someya, Shigemi Kimura, Akira Kanno, Yoshimasa Maniwa, Toshihide Tabata, Kazuyuki Tobe, Yutaka Takaoka
Objectives In this research, we aimed to find potential factors which are rapidly obtained for the risk of the coming new variants of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), when their genetic substitutions were detected in late 2022. Methods We first performed molecular docking simulation analyses of the spike proteins with human angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2) by using
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Risk of African swine fever incursion into the Netherlands by wild boar carcasses and meat carried by Dutch hunters from hunting trips abroad Microb. Risk Anal. (IF 2.8) Pub Date : 2023-08-05 Manon Swanenburg, Tosca Ploegaert, Michiel Kroese, Clazien J. de Vos
After the first introduction of African swine fever (ASF) in the European Union in 2014, the ASF virus (ASFV) has steadily spread in the European Union. The virus has occasionally been transmitted over unexpectedly large distances that are believed to be related to human-mediated spread. Hunting tourism has been mentioned as a potential contributor to these long-distance jumps, although evidence is
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Upcoming epidemic storm: Empirical formulas, biosynthesis reactions, thermodynamic properties and driving forces of multiplication of the omicron XBB.1.9.1, XBF and XBB.1.16 (Arcturus) variants of SARS-CoV-2 Microb. Risk Anal. (IF 2.8) Pub Date : 2023-07-24 Marko E. Popovic, Marija Mihailović, Stefan Panić
COVID-19 and SARS-CoV-2 from the perspectives of medicine, biology, molecular biology, chemistry and biothermodynamics represent probably the best studied virus-host interaction until now. Empirical formula of SARS-CoV-2 is the second reported in history, immediately after the poliovirus. Empirical formulas of all SARS-CoV-2 variants have been reported in the literature. This paper reports empirical
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Modeling the risk of Vibrio parahaemolyticus in oysters in Taiwan by considering seasonal variations, time periods, climate change scenarios, and post-harvest interventions Microb. Risk Anal. (IF 2.8) Pub Date : 2023-07-25 Nodali Ndraha, Hung-Yun Lin, Han-Jia Lin, Hsin-I Hsiao
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Quantitative microbiological risk assessment model for Campylobacter in raw milk of dairy cows in Germany Microb. Risk Anal. (IF 2.8) Pub Date : 2023-07-25 Anna-Delia Knipper, Tasja Crease, Taras Günther, Matthias Filter, Maarten Nauta
The consumer demand for raw milk from dairy cows has increased and local sales via vending machines have been intensified. Therefore, this study aimed to assess the risk associated with the consumption of unboiled raw milk contaminated with Campylobacter by estimating the number of campylobacteriosis cases. For this a stochastic quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) model was developed that
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Risk factors for contaminated blood cultures in the emergency department: A prospective cohort study Microb. Risk Anal. (IF 2.8) Pub Date : 2023-05-24 Koshi Ota, Yuriko Takeda, Daisuke Nishioka, Masahiro Oka, Emi Hamada, Kanna Ota, Yuriko Shibata, Kazuma Yamakawa, Akira Takasu
Background We aimed to determine risk factors associated with rates of contaminated blood cultures in the emergency department (ED). Methods This single-center, cohort study of 1098 consecutive patients ≥ 20 years of age was performed in the ED of university hospital over a 26-month period. Results We analyzed 2096 pairs of blood cultures. Potential contamination was identified in 172 (8.2%) of the
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Ghosts of the past: Elemental composition, biosynthesis reactions and thermodynamic properties of Zeta P.2, Eta B.1.525, Theta P.3, Kappa B.1.617.1, Iota B.1.526, Lambda C.37 and Mu B.1.621 variants of SARS-CoV-2 Microb. Risk Anal. (IF 2.8) Pub Date : 2023-05-20 Marko Popovic, Marijana Pantović Pavlović, Miroslav Pavlović
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A novel approach to biological risk surveillance in occupational hygiene: A case study on the use of quantitative microbial risk assessment to determine occupational risks for wastewater treatment plants workers in Costa Rica Microb. Risk Anal. (IF 2.8) Pub Date : 2023-05-11 Eric Morales, Andrei Badilla, Pablo Rivera, Ernesto Alfaro, Erin M. Symonds, Kenia Barrantes, Clemens Ruepert, Jennifer Crowe, Luz Chacón
Wastewater treatment is essential for preventing infectious diseases and water pollution. To perform this process, workers operate and maintain wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs); thus, they are exposed to the many pathogens in domestic wastewater. Consequently, it is necessary assess occupational exposure to pathogens in WWTPs. Quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) is an approach for estimating
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Community-onset anaerobic bloodstream infection, predisposing factors, and impact on survival: A prospective cohort study Microb. Risk Anal. (IF 2.8) Pub Date : 2023-04-14 Yenh-Chen Hsein, Sih-Shiang Huang, Wan-Ting Hsu, Frank Qian, Amy Huaishiuan Huang, Alvaro E. Galvis, Chin-Hua Su, Chia-Hung Yo, Chien-Chang Lee
Background Few studies have examined the outcomes and predisposing risk factors for anaerobic bloodstream infections (BSIs). Objective To determine the survival impact of aerobic versus anaerobic BSI, a prospective cohort study was conducted. Methods We prospectively enrolled emergency department patients at a tertiary medical center with BSIs determined by laboratory testing between 2015 and 2016
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SARS-CoV-2 strain wars continues: Chemical and thermodynamic characterization of live matter and biosynthesis of Omicron BN.1, CH.1.1 and XBC variants Microb. Risk Anal. (IF 2.8) Pub Date : 2023-03-22 Marko Popovic
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A quantitative exposure assessment model for norovirus in oysters harvested from a classified production area Microb. Risk Anal. (IF 2.8) Pub Date : 2023-02-04 Kevin Hunt, Bill Doré, Sinead Keaveney, Agnieszka Rupnik, Francis Butler
Norovirus is a significant hazard to consumers of shellfish, in particular oysters. Oysters grown in waters contaminated with wastewater filter and accumulate norovirus particles, causing infection in humans when the product is consumed raw or lightly cooked. In the European Union (EU) and the United States, bacterial detection criteria are used to assess and manage microbial risk in shellfish. This
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The SARS-CoV-2 Hydra, a tiny monster from the 21st century: Thermodynamics of the BA.5.2 and BF.7 variants Microb. Risk Anal. (IF 2.8) Pub Date : 2023-02-04 Marko Popovic
SARS-CoV-2 resembles the ancient mythical creature Hydra. Just like with the Hydra, when one head is cut, it is followed by appearance of two more heads, suppression of one SARS-CoV-2 variant causes appearance of newer variants. Unlike Hydra that grows identical heads, newer SARS-CoV-2 variants are usually more infective, which can be observed as time evolution of the virus at hand, which occurs through
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A model using an inter-sectorial data integration process indicates that reducing Campylobacter cross-contamination at slaughter mitigates the risk of human campylobacteriosis effectively Microb. Risk Anal. (IF 2.8) Pub Date : 2023-02-02 Alessandro Foddai, Maarten Nauta, Johanne Ellis-Iversen
The risk of human campylobacteriosis due to Danish broiler flocks cross-contaminated (CC) at slaughter with Campylobacter spp. was assessed. National surveillance data (2018) on flock Campylobacter status (called animal level component (AL)) and on contamination of chilled carcasses ready for consumption (food safety component (FS)), were compared. The AL component consisted of PCR testing results
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Classification and ranking of shigatoxin-producing Escherichia coli (STEC) genotypes detected in food based on potential public health impact using clinical data Microb. Risk Anal. (IF 2.8) Pub Date : 2023-01-12 Roland Lindqvist, Catarina Flink, Mats Lindblad
Risk classification and management of shigatoxin-producing E. coli (STEC) isolated from food has been hampered by gaps in knowledge about the properties that determine the extent to which different subtypes of STEC can cause severe disease. Data on the proportion of infected human cases being affected by severe illness enables an evaluation of existing approaches for classifying STEC strains and the
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Why doesn't Ebola virus cause pandemics like SARS-CoV-2? Microb. Risk Anal. (IF 2.8) Pub Date : 2022-10-25 Marko Popovic
Ebola virus is among the most dangerous, contagious and deadly etiological causes of viral diseases. However, Ebola virus has never extensively spread in human population and never have led to a pandemic. Why? The mechanistic biophysical model revealing the biothermodynamic background of virus-host interaction) could help us to understand pathogenesis of Ebola virus disease (earlier known as the Ebola
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Risk of Monkeypox virus (MPXV) transmission through the handling and consumption of food Microb. Risk Anal. (IF 2.8) Pub Date : 2022-10-24 Estelle Chaix, Mickaël Boni, Laurent Guillier, Stéphane Bertagnoli, Alexandra Mailles, Catherine Collignon, Pauline Kooh, Olivier Ferraris, Sandra Martin-Latil, Jean-Claude Manuguerra, Nadia Haddad
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Seasonal variation in the transmission rate of covid-19 in a temperate climate can be implemented in epidemic population models by using daily average temperature as a proxy for seasonal changes in transmission rate Microb. Risk Anal. (IF 2.8) Pub Date : 2022-10-08 Morten Guldborg Johnsen, Lasse Engbo Christiansen, Kaare Græsbøll
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The use of bayesian networks and bootstrap to evaluate risks linked to the microbial contamination of leafy greens irrigated with reclaimed water in Southeast Spain Microb. Risk Anal. (IF 2.8) Pub Date : 2022-09-30 Alberto Garre, Pablo S. Fernández, Pilar Truchado, Pedro J. Simón-Andreu, Roland Lindqvist, Ana Allende
The use of reclaimed water for irrigation is one of the most common strategies to address water scarcity in many regions of the world, and many of the most intensive production areas of fruits and vegetables rely on these water sources to produce high quality fresh produce. However, there are still concerns regarding the microbiological quality and safety of products irrigated with reclaimed water
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Beyond COVID-19: Do biothermodynamic properties allow predicting the future evolution of SARS-CoV-2 variants? Microb. Risk Anal. (IF 2.8) Pub Date : 2022-08-31 Marko Popovic
During the COVID-19 pandemic, many statistical and epidemiological studies have been published, trying to predict the future development of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. However, it would be beneficial to have a specific, mechanistic biophysical model, based on the driving forces of processes performed during virus-host interactions and fundamental laws of nature, allowing prediction of future evolution
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Strain wars 5: Gibbs energies of binding of BA.1 through BA.4 variants of SARS-CoV-2 Microb. Risk Anal. (IF 2.8) Pub Date : 2022-08-21 Marko Popovic
This paper reports, for the first time, standard Gibbs energies of binding of the BA.1, BA.2, BA.3, BA.2.13, BA.2.12.1 and BA.4 Omicron variants of SARS-CoV-2, to the Human ACE2 receptor. Variants BA.1 through BA.3 exhibit a trend of decreasing standard Gibbs energy of binding and hence increased infectivity. The BA.4 variant exhibits a less negative standard Gibbs energy of binding, but also more
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Multidirectional dynamic model for the spread of extended-spectrum-β-lactamase-producing Escherichia coli in the Netherlands Microb. Risk Anal. (IF 2.8) Pub Date : 2022-07-20 Eduardo de Freitas Costa, Thomas J. Hagenaars, Anita Dame-Korevaar, Michael S.M. Brouwer, Clazien J. de Vos
Extended-spectrum-β-lactamase-producing Escherichia coli (ESBL-EC) is a major public health concern. A better understanding of the dynamics of ESBL-EC transmission is required for effective prevention and control. We present here a multidirectional dynamic risk model for ESBL-EC transmission between broiler flocks, broiler farmers, and the open community, parameterized for the Netherlands. A discrete-time
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Quantitative modeling of school cafeteria share tables predicts reduced food waste and manageable norovirus-related food safety risk Microb. Risk Anal. (IF 2.8) Pub Date : 2022-07-01 Gustavo A. Reyes, Jessica Zagorsky, Yawei Lin, Melissa Pflugh Prescott, Matthew J. Stasiewicz
Share tables (ST) allow students to share unwanted food items with other students in school cafeterias, making them a possible method to reduce food waste and insecurity. This study assesses potential food safety risks and food security benefits of a ST system, to assess if future work on STs is warranted. But food safety concerns from stakeholders hinder ST implementation. A quantitative microbial
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Prediction of infectivity of SARS-CoV2: Mathematical model with analysis of docking simulation for spike proteins and angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 Microb. Risk Anal. (IF 2.8) Pub Date : 2022-06-16 Yutaka Takaoka, Aki Sugano, Yoshitomo Morinaga, Mika Ohta, Kenji Miura, Haruyuki Kataguchi, Minoru Kumaoka, Shigemi Kimura, Yoshimasa Maniwa
Objectives Variants of a coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) have been spreading in a global pandemic. Improved understanding of the infectivity of future new variants is important so that effective countermeasures against them can be quickly undertaken. In our research reported here, we aimed to predict the infectivity of SARS-CoV-2 by using a mathematical model with molecular simulation analysis, and we used
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Risk and socio-economic impact for Staphylococcus aureus foodborne illness by ready-to-eat salad consumption Microb. Risk Anal. (IF 2.8) Pub Date : 2022-05-02 Yewon Lee, Hyemin Oh, Yeongeun Seo, Joohyun Kang, Eunyoung Park, Yohan Yoon
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Cryptosporidium’s burden of disease attributable to consumption of wastewater-irrigated raw vegetables Microb. Risk Anal. (IF 2.8) Pub Date : 2022-04-27 Marzieh Farhadkhani, Mahnaz Nikaeen, Mahdi Hadi, Hossein Nikaein, Absar Alum, Morteza Abbaszadegan
Conventional wastewater treatment plants do not effectively remove parasitic protozoa resulting in their presence in wastewater effluent. Therefore, agricultural reuse of wastewater effluent could be a route of Cryptosporidium transmission into the food chain. Samples of secondary wastewater, wastewater-irrigated soil and vegetable samples were collected from an experimental field and analyzed using
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Strain wars 3: Differences in infectivity and pathogenicity between Delta and Omicron strains of SARS-CoV-2 can be explained by thermodynamic and kinetic parameters of binding and growth Microb. Risk Anal. (IF 2.8) Pub Date : 2022-04-12 Marko Popovic
In this paper, for the first time, empirical formulas have been reported of the Delta and Omicron strains of SARS-CoV-2. The empirical formula of the Delta strain entire virion was found to be CH1.6383O0.2844N0.2294P0.0064S0.0042, while its nucleocapsid has the formula CH1.5692O0.3431N0.3106P0.0060S0.0043. The empirical formula of the Omicron strain entire virion was found to be CH1.6404O0.2842N0.2299P0
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Microbiological profile and modeling the survival of Escherichia coli ATCC 25922 in Amlou: A traditional Moroccan spread food Microb. Risk Anal. (IF 2.8) Pub Date : 2022-04-04 Youssef Ezzaky, Mariem Zanzan, Fouad Achemchem, Antonio Valero, Fatima Hamadi
This study was carried out to assess the bacteriological profile and to model the combined effects of physicochemical parameters on Escherichia coli ATCC 25922 levels in Amlou, a typical Moroccan traditional spread food made with argan oil, sweet almonds, and honey or sugar. Microbiological analyses of the samples (n = 44), collected from different traditional producers, included total viable count
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Assessment of COVID-19 risk and prevention effectiveness among spectators of mass gathering events Microb. Risk Anal. (IF 2.8) Pub Date : 2022-03-31 Tetsuo Yasutaka, Michio Murakami, Yuichi Iwasaki, Wataru Naito, Masaki Onishi, Tsukasa Fujita, Seiya Imoto
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Assessing Campylobacter cross-contamination of Danish broiler flocks at slaughterhouses considering true flock prevalence estimates and ad-hoc sampling Microb. Risk Anal. (IF 2.8) Pub Date : 2022-03-24 Alessandro Foddai, Nao Takeuchi-Storm, Birgitte Borck Høg, Jette Sejer Kjeldgaard, Jens Kirk Andersen, Johanne Ellis-Iversen
Campylobacter cross-contamination of Danish broiler flocks at slaughterhouses was investigated using data from two national surveillance components and from ad-hoc sampling. The animal level (AL) and food safety (FS) components from 2018 were compared. The AL component contained results of PCR on pools of cloacal swabs from 3,012 flocks processed at two Danish slaughterhouses (S1-S2), while the FS
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Disease burden from simultaneous exposure of Cryptosporidium sp. and Giardia sp. and land use vulnerability assessment in a Costa Rican drinking water system Microb. Risk Anal. (IF 2.8) Pub Date : 2022-03-19 Eric Morales, Gabriel Ibarra, Liliana Reyes, Kenia Barrantes, Rosario Achí, Luz Chacón
Human and animal feces are one of the main pollutants in drinking water systems (DWS). Both sources of fecal pollution are related to environmental conditions, such as poor land use management and little micro-basin protection. Cryptosporidium sp. and Giardia sp. are zoonotic protozoan water and foodborne transmitted parasitic pathogens and a frequent cause of diarrhea in children in low- and middle-income
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A systematic review and Bayesian meta-analysis about Salmonella spp. prevalence on raw chicken meat Microb. Risk Anal. (IF 2.8) Pub Date : 2022-03-04 Claudia Titze Hessel, Eduardo de Freitas Costa, Roberta Taufer Boff, João Pedro Pessoa, Eduardo Cesar Tondo
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Parameter estimates to support future risk assessment of Mycobacterium bovis in raw milk cheese Microb. Risk Anal. (IF 2.8) Pub Date : 2022-02-12 Áine B. Collins, Simon J. More
Zoonotic tuberculosis, caused by Mycobacterium bovis, is mainly linked to the consumption of raw milk from infected cows. In many countries, cases are rare, due to pasteurisation of milk and national programmes to control M. bovis infection in cattle. Speciality cheeses, which are often produced using raw milk, present challenges to risk managers in countries where M. bovis is endemic or (re-) emerging
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Characterization of the transfer probability of Salmonella ser. Typhimurium between pork and a cutting knife in an experimental model Microb. Risk Anal. (IF 2.8) Pub Date : 2022-02-06 Eduardo de Freitas Costa, Claudia Navarrete Rivas, Vanessa Bielefeld Leotti, Marisa Cardoso, Luis Gustavo Corbellini
Cross-contamination is an important event for bacterial transfer throughout the pork production chain. In Brazil, Salmonella sp. is the most relevant hazard in the pork industry, and further knowledge concerning its contamination is essential for in-depth risk assessments. Thus, we aimed to assess the transfer probability of Salmonella sp. between a knife and pork in a domestic kitchen scenario to
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Strain Wars: Competitive interactions between SARS-CoV-2 strains are explained by Gibbs energy of antigen-receptor binding Microb. Risk Anal. (IF 2.8) Pub Date : 2022-02-05 Marko Popovic, Marta Popovic
Since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, SARS-CoV-2 has mutated several times into new strains, with an increased infectivity. Infectivity of SARS-CoV-2 strains depends on binding affinity of the virus to its host cell receptor. In this paper, we quantified the binding affinity using Gibbs energy of binding and analyzed the competition between SARS-CoV-2 strains as an interference phenomenon.
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A climate-driven model for predicting the level of Vibrio parahaemolyticus in oysters harvested from Taiwanese farms using elastic net regularized regression Microb. Risk Anal. (IF 2.8) Pub Date : 2022-01-31 Nodali Ndraha, Hsin-I Hsiao
This study aimed at, and developed, a climate-driven model for predicting the abundance of V. parahaemolyticus in oysters based on the local climatological and environmental conditions in Taiwan. The predictive model was constructed using the elastic net machine learning method, and the most influential predictors were evaluated using a permutation-based approach. The abundance of V. parahaemolyticus
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Qualitative assessment of the probability of introduction and onward transmission of lumpy skin disease in Ukraine Microb. Risk Anal. (IF 2.8) Pub Date : 2021-12-15 Dima Farra, Marco De Nardi, Viktoria Lets, Sergii Holopura, Oleksiy Klymenok, Roger Stephan, Oksana Boreiko
Lumpy skin disease (LSD) is a transboundary disease affecting bovine animals, which may result in severe economic implications. Ukraine is considered particularly vulnerable to LSD due to its proximity to regions where the virus is circulating. In addition, its ecological and environmental parameters can sustain, in summer, the spread of the disease in case it entered the country. This qualitative
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Effects of test timing and isolation length to reduce the risk of COVID-19 infection associated with airplane travel, as determined by infectious disease dynamics modeling Microb. Risk Anal. (IF 2.8) Pub Date : 2021-12-11 Masashi Kamo, Michio Murakami, Seiya Imoto
Effective measures to reduce the risk of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) infection in overseas travelers are urgently needed. However, the effectiveness of current testing and isolation protocols is not yet fully understood. Here, we examined how the timing of testing and the number of tests conducted affect the spread of COVID-19 infection associated with airplane travel. We used two mathematical
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An updated assessment of the effect of control options to reduce Campylobacter concentrations in broiler caeca on human health risk in the European Union Microb. Risk Anal. (IF 2.8) Pub Date : 2021-12-05 Maarten Nauta, Declan Bolton, Matteo Crotta, Johanne Ellis-Iversen, Thomas Alter, Michaela Hempen, Winy Messens, Marianne Chemaly
Quantitative microbiological risk assessment (QMRA) studies have suggested that control options to reduce the concentration of Campylobacter spp. in broiler chicken caeca may be highly effective at reducing the risk of human campylobacteriosis. These QMRA studies have been updated based on scientific evidence obtained in the past decade. The relationship between Campylobacter concentrations in the
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Using thermodynamic equilibrium models to predict the effect of antiviral agents on infectivity: Theoretical application to SARS-CoV-2 and other viruses. Microb. Risk Anal. (IF 2.8) Pub Date : 2021-12-04 Paul Gale
Thermodynamic equilibrium models predict the infectivity of novel and emerging viruses using molecular data including the binding affinity of the virus to the host cell (as represented by the association constant Ka_virus_T) and the probability, pvirogenesis, of the virus replicating after entry to the cell. Here those models are adapted based on the principles of ligand binding to macromolecules to
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Evaluation of risk-based surveillance strategies for Salmonella Dublin in Danish dairy herds by modelling temporal test performance and herd status classification errors Microb. Risk Anal. (IF 2.8) Pub Date : 2021-09-30 Alessandro Foddai, Jørgen Nielsen, Liza Rosenbaum Nielsen, Erik Rattenborg, Hans Ebbensgaard Murillo, Johanne Ellis-Iversen
The potential risk-based improvement of the Salmonella Dublin surveillance programme in Danish dairy herds was investigated, considering herd status misclassifications due to testing errors. The programme started in October 2002. Currently (early 2021) all dairy herds are classified based on quarterly bulk tank milk (BTM) testing with an indirect antibody ELISA (iELISA). Over the last two decades,
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Assessing the risk of acute gastrointestinal illness (AGI) acquired through recreational exposure to combined sewer overflow-impacted waters in Philadelphia: A quantitative microbial risk assessment Microb. Risk Anal. (IF 2.8) Pub Date : 2021-11-14 Shannon M. McGinnis, Tucker Burch, Heather M. Murphy
Combined sewer overflows (CSOs) are known contributors of human fecal pollution in urban waterways. Exposure to these waterways occurs during recreational activities, including swimming, wading, and fishing. This study used quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) to estimate the risk of acute gastrointestinal illness (AGI) due to recreation during CSO-impacted (< 24 h after a CSO) and non-impacted
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Microbial risk assessment and mitigation options for wastewater treatment in Arctic Canada Microb. Risk Anal. (IF 2.8) Pub Date : 2021-11-11 Kiley Daley, Rob Jamieson, Daniel Rainham, Lisbeth Truelstrup Hansen, Sherilee L Harper
Populations in Arctic Canada are strongly connected to, and draw sustenance from, the physical environment. Recreation and food harvesting locations, however, may be impacted by the basic wastewater treatment and disposal processes used in the region. Within these mixed socio-ecological systems, people may unknowingly be exposed to wastewater pathogens, either by direct contact or indirectly through
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Risk-based control of Campylobacter spp. in broiler farms and slaughtered flocks to mitigate risk of human campylobacteriosis – A One Health approach Microb. Risk Anal. (IF 2.8) Pub Date : 2021-11-08 Alessandro Foddai, Maarten Nauta, Johanne Ellis-Iversen
Effects of risk-based control of Campylobacter spp. in Danish broiler farms and flocks were simulated, to assess potential reductions of human risk of campylobacteriosis, associated to the consumption of poultry meat produced in Denmark. Two national data streams were used and represented: Flock status by testing cloacal swabs (CS, 2018–2019) and carcass status by testing leg skin samples (LS, 2019)
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A tiered approach to risk assess microbiome perturbations induced by application of beauty and personal care products Microb. Risk Anal. (IF 2.8) Pub Date : 2021-11-08 Aline Métris, Paul Barrett, Laura Price, Silvia Klamert, Judith Fernandez-Piquer
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A second-order Monte Carlo simulation model to describe coagulase-positive Staphylococci growth in mayonnaise served in Algerian pizzerias Microb. Risk Anal. (IF 2.8) Pub Date : 2021-11-08 Mohammed Ziane, Jeanne-Marie Membré
To bridge the data gap on food poisoning caused by coagulase-positive staphylococci (CoPS), especially related to mayonnaise sauce served at Algerian pizzerias, this study aimed to assess the concentration of CoPS in mayonnaise and the probability of exceeding a critical concentration of ≥ 5 log CFU/g. The city of Ain Témouchent in West Algeria was taken as a case study. A probabilistic assessment
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Estimating the likelihood of ESBL-producing E. coli carriage in slaughter-aged pigs following bacterial introduction onto a farm: A multiscale risk assessment Microb. Risk Anal. (IF 2.8) Pub Date : 2021-10-25 Catherine McCarthy, Alexis Viel, Chris Gavin, Pascal Sanders, Robin R.L. Simons
The transmission of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) between animals, their environment, food and humans is a complex issue. Previous pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic (PKPD) models indicate that extended-spectrum β-lactamase (ESBL) resistant bacterial populations may be self-sustaining through horizontal and vertical gene transfer, even in the absence of antimicrobial pressure. However, models focusing