BACKGROUND Significant gains in life expectancy have been achieved, but living longer does not necessarily mean the years gained are productive and healthy. Different theories predict different patterns of time trends in old-age disability prevalence. METHODS Using the Gateway to Global Aging Data, which provides internationally harmonized longitudinal data from the Health and Retirement Study and its sister surveys, we compare time trends (from 2004 to 2014) in disability prevalence across countries. RESULTS Disability prevalence varies greatly across countries, and divergent time trends are observed across countries. For countries such as Belgium, Czechia, and Mexico, we observe an increase of disability prevalence, whereas in countries such as Denmark, England, Greece, Korea, Poland, and Sweden, we observe a substantial decrease in disability prevalence. Looking further into the severity of disability, we often observe differential trends in prevalence, but there is no evidence supporting the dynamic equilibrium hypothesis that predicts increased prevalence of modest disability but a decrease in severe disability prevalence. CONCLUSIONS Significant gains in life expectancy have translated into different gains in healthy years of life across different countries. Diverse time trends in disability prevalence across countries reaffirm that the expansion of late-life disability is not inevitable.

中文翻译：

---

寿命更长，有无残疾？全球和纵向视角。

背景技术已经实现了预期寿命的显着增加，但是寿命更长并不一定意味着所获得的年龄是生产性的和健康的。不同的理论预测老年残疾患病率的时间趋势有不同的模式。方法使用《全球老龄化数据门户》，该报告提供了《健康与退休研究》及其姊妹调查的国际统一纵向数据，我们比较了各国残疾人患病率的时间趋势（2004年至2014年）。结果各国的残疾人患病率差异很大，各国之间的时间趋势存在差异。对于比利时，捷克共和国和墨西哥等国家，我们发现残疾人的患病率有所上升，而在丹麦，英国，希腊，韩国，波兰和瑞典等国家，我们发现残疾患病率大幅下降。进一步研究残疾的严重性，我们经常观察到患病率的差异趋势，但是没有证据支持动态平衡假说，该假说预测了适度残疾的患病率会增加，但严重残疾的患病率会下降。结论在不同国家，预期寿命的显着提高已转化为健康寿命的不同增长。各国残障流行率的不同时间趋势再次证明，晚期残障的扩大并非不可避免。但是没有证据支持动态平衡假说，该假说可以预测中度残疾的患病率增加，但严重残疾的患病率会降低。结论在不同国家，预期寿命的显着提高已转化为健康寿命的不同增长。各国残障流行率的不同时间趋势再次证明，晚期残障的扩大并非不可避免。但是没有证据支持动态平衡假说，该假说可以预测中度残疾的患病率增加，但严重残疾的患病率会降低。结论在不同国家，预期寿命的显着提高已转化为健康寿命的不同增长。各国残障流行率的不同时间趋势再次证明，晚期残障的扩大并非不可避免。