Eco‐cultural landscapes are assumed to be favorable environments for the persistence of biodiversity, but global change may affect differently their terrestrial and aquatic components. Few long‐term studies have examined how multiple, global change stressors may affect wetland biodiversity in such environments. Facultative paedomorphosis is a spectacular example of intra‐specific variation, in which biphasic (metamorphosing) amphibians coexist with fully aquatic conspecifics that do not metamorphose (paedomorphs). Paedomorphosis is seriously threatened by global change stressors, but it is unknown to what extent traditional management will allow its long‐term persistence. Here, we tested the effects of alien species introductions while taking into account land use and climate changes on the distribution of two polymorphic newt species (Ichthyosaura alpestris and Lissotriton graecus) in Montenegro by using a 68‐yr data set and Bayesian mixed models integrating complex spatial and temporal structures. We found that, despite the persistence of natural landscapes, metamorphs dramatically declined and paedomorphs were nearly extirpated, losing 99.9% of their aquatic area of occupancy and all the major populations. Fish introduction was the main determinant of decline for both phenotypes. Climate and the presence of crayfish further contributed to the decline of metamorphs, which started later and was less dramatic than that of paedomorphs. The near extinction of paedomorphosis on a country‐wide scale shows how invasive species determine broad‐scale impacts, which can be even stronger than other global change stressors, and underlines the need for immediate management actions to avoid the extinction of a unique developmental process, paedomorphosis.

中文翻译：

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传统管理的景观不能阻止两栖动物的衰落和古迹的灭绝

生态文化景观被认为是维持生物多样性的有利环境，但是全球变化可能对其陆生和水生成分产生不同的影响。很少有长期研究探讨了多种全球变化压力因素如何在这样的环境中影响湿地生物多样性。兼性pa形变是种内变异的一个很好的例子，其中两相（变态）两栖动物与没有变态的完全水生种共存（变形）。Paedomorphosis受到全球变化压力的严重威胁，但尚不清楚传统管理在多大程度上可以使其长期持续存在。在此，我们测试了引进外来物种的影响，同时考虑了土地利用和气候变化对两种多态new物种分布的影响（鱼龙和鱼鳞草），方法是使用68年的数据集和贝叶斯混合模型，将复杂的时空结构整合在一起。我们发现，尽管保留了自然景观，但变形体却急剧下降，古迹几乎被灭绝，失去了其水生面积和所有主要种群的99.9％。鱼类的引入是两种表型下降的主要决定因素。气候和小龙虾的存在进一步促进了变质体的下降，这种变体的发生较晚，且不如粉状变体剧烈。在全国范围内，古迹几乎消失了，这表明入侵物种如何决定广泛的影响，甚至比其他全球变化的压力源还要强大，