Renewable energy technologies are a key lever to mitigate climate change. However, net energy analyses showing low energy returns on energy invested (EROIs) for these technologies raise the question of whether current prosperity can be maintained with an increasingly renewables-dependent energy sector. Here we argue that static net energy analyses disregard the inherent potential to improve technologies through innovation. We present energetic experience curves for power generation technologies utilizing hard coal, solar irradiation, and wind, and show that EROI of new technologies improves as more capacity is installed. By 2015, solar PV and onshore wind were already outperforming coal, with further improvements to be expected. Therefore, concerns that a large-scale transition to renewable energy sources jeopardizes societal net energy efficiency and prosperity seem unfounded.

中文翻译：

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发电技术的净能源性能的历史和预期改进†

可再生能源技术是缓解气候变化的关键杠杆。但是，净能源分析显示，这些技术的能源投资所产生的能源回报率较低（EROIs），这提出了一个问题，即越来越依赖可再生能源的能源部门能否维持当前的繁荣。在这里，我们认为静态净能量分析忽略了通过创新来改进技术的内在潜力。我们给出了利用硬煤，太阳辐射和风能的发电技术的丰富经验曲线，并表明随着安装更多容量，新技术的EROI会提高。到2015年，太阳能光伏和陆上风电的表现已经超过煤炭，并且有望进一步改善。所以，