In an increasingly globalized and interconnected world, where social and environmental change occur ever more rapidly, careful futures-oriented thinking becomes crucial for effective decision making. Foresight activities, including scenario development, quantitative modeling, and scenario-guided design of policies and programs, play a key role in exploring options to address socioeconomic and environmental challenges across many sectors and decision-making levels. We take stock of recent methodological developments in scenario and foresight exercises, seek to provide greater clarity on the many diverse approaches employed, and examine their use by decision makers in different fields and at different geographic, administrative, and temporal scales. Experience shows the importance of clearly formulated questions, structured dialog, carefully designed scenarios, sophisticated biophysical and socioeconomic analysis, and iteration as needed to more effectively link the growing scenarios and foresight community...

中文翻译：

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情景发展和前瞻分析：探索为选择提供信息的选项

在日益全球化和相互联系的世界中，社会和环境变化发生得越来越快，谨慎的面向未来的思维对于有效决策变得至关重要。前瞻性活动，包括情景开发、定量建模和情景引导的政策和计划设计，在探索解决许多部门和决策层面的社会经济和环境挑战的方案方面发挥着关键作用。我们评估了情景和前瞻练习中最近方法论的发展，力求更清楚地说明所采用的许多不同方法，并检查不同领域和不同地理、行政和时间范围内的决策者对它们的使用。经验表明，明确提出的问题、结构化的对话、