There is a strong relationship among cultural landscapes, socio-economy and the provision of ecosystem services. The goal of this paper is to study the relationships between socioeconomic changes and the generation of ecosystem services in cultural landscapes in Andalusia (Spain). In order to do that, a causal Object-Oriented Bayesian network (OOBN) approach was carried out. We proposed 3 socioeconomic scenarios: (i) no intervention (rural abandonment); (ii) rural intensification; and (iii) rural development (sustainability). We computed the relative change between the prior and posterior distribution of each variable considered in the model. We also computed the entropy of the ecosystem service variables (ESVs), as a measure of their uncertainty, before and after the introduction of socioeconomic changes. Afterwards, a statistical test was performed in order to find significant differences among the 3 scenarios, regarding the relative change of the state high of the ESVs. Moreover, a t-test was carried out to compare the uncertainty of the prior and posterior distributions of the ESVs. The results showed significant differences among the scenarios. OOBNs are a powerful tool to deal with complex socio-ecological systems. Moreover, the use of Bayesian networks provides a sound way of quantifying uncertainty in a transparent way.

文化景观，社会经济与生态系统服务之间有着密切的关系。本文的目的是研究西班牙安达卢西亚文化景观中社会经济变化与生态系统服务的产生之间的关系。为此，进行了一种因果的面向对象的贝叶斯网络（OOBN）方法。我们提出了3种社会经济情景：（i）不干预（农村放弃）；（ii）农村集约化；（iii）农村发展（可持续性）。我们计算了模型中考虑的每个变量的前后分布之间的相对变化。我们还计算了引入社会经济变化前后的生态系统服务变量（ESV）的熵，以衡量其不确定性。然后，为了发现这三种情况之间的重大差异，对ESV的状态变化进行了统计检验。而且，一个进行t检验以比较ESV的前后分布的不确定性。结果显示场景之间存在显着差异。OOBN是处理复杂的社会生态系统的有力工具。此外，贝叶斯网络的使用提供了一种以透明方式量化不确定性的合理方法。