We synthesize available literature, data, and analysis on the degree to which growth in variable renewable energy (VRE) has impacted or might in the future impact bulk power system assets, pricing, and costs in the United States. Most studies of future scenarios indicate that VRE reduces wholesale energy prices and capacity factors of thermal generators. Traditional baseload generators are more exposed to these changing market conditions than low-capital cost and more flexible intermediate and peak-load generators. From analysis of historical data we find that VRE is already influencing the bulk power market through changes in temporal and geographic patterns areas with higher levels of VRE. The most significant observed impacts have concentrated in areas with significant VRE and/or nuclear generation along with limited transmission, with negative pricing also often occurring during periods with lower system-wide load. So far, however, VRE, has had a relatively modest impact on historical average annual wholesale prices across entire market regions, at least in comparison to other drivers. The reduction of natural gas prices is the primary contributor to the decline in wholesale prices since 2008. Similarly, VRE impacts on thermal plant retirements have been limited and there is little relationship between the location of recent retirements and VRE penetration levels. Although impacts on wholesale prices have been modest so far, impacts of VRE on the electricity market will be more significant under higher VRE penetrations.

我们综合了有关可变可再生能源（VRE）增长对美国大型电力系统资产，价格和成本的影响程度或未来影响程度的现有文献，数据和分析。对未来情景的大多数研究表明，VRE降低了批发能源价格和热力发电机的容量因子。传统的基本负荷发电机比低资本成本和更灵活的中负荷和峰值负荷发电机更容易受到这些不断变化的市场条件的影响。通过对历史数据的分析，我们发现VRE已经通过时空和地域的变化影响了大功率电力市场对VRE水平较高的区域进行图案化。观察到的最显着影响集中在VRE和/或核发电量大，传输受限的地区，在全系统负荷较低的时期也经常出现负定价。但是到目前为止，VRE对历史平均值的影响相对较小至少与其他驱动因素相比，整个市场区域的年度批发价格。自2008年以来，天然气价格的下降是批发价格下降的主要原因。同样，VRE对热电厂报废的影响是有限的，并且近期报废的地点和VRE渗透水平之间几乎没有关系。尽管到目前为止对批发价格的影响不大，但在较高的VRE渗透率下，VRE对电力市场的影响将更为显着。