当前位置: X-MOL 学术Nat. Rev. Earth Environ. › 论文详情
Our official English website, www.x-mol.net, welcomes your feedback! (Note: you will need to create a separate account there.)
Sea-level rise and human migration
Nature Reviews Earth & Environment ( IF 42.1 ) Pub Date : 2019-12-09 , DOI: 10.1038/s43017-019-0002-9
Mathew E. Hauer , Elizabeth Fussell , Valerie Mueller , Maxine Burkett , Maia Call , Kali Abel , Robert McLeman , David Wrathall

Anthropogenic sea-level rise (SLR) is predicted to impact, and, in many cases, displace, a large proportion of the population via inundation and heightened SLR-related hazards. With the global coastal population projected to surpass one billion people this century, SLR might be among the most costly and permanent future consequences of climate change. In this Review, we synthesize the rapidly expanding knowledge of human mobility and migration responses to SLR, providing a coherent roadmap for future SLR research and associated policy. While it is often assumed that direct inundation forces a migration, we discuss how mobility responses are instead driven by a diversity of socioeconomic and demographic factors, which, in some cases, do not result in a migration response. We link SLR hazards with potential mechanisms of migration and the associated governmental or institutional policies that operate as obstacles or facilitators for that migration. Specific examples from the USA, Bangladesh and atoll island nations are used to contextualize these concepts. However, further research is needed on the fundamental mechanisms underlying SLR migration, tipping points, thresholds and feedbacks, risk perception and migration to fully understand migration responses to SLR.



中文翻译:

海平面上升和人类迁徙

预计人为海平面上升(SLR)会通过淹没和与SLR相关的危害加剧而影响很大一部分人口,并在许多情况下造成流离失所。到本世纪,全球沿海人口预计将超过10亿,因此单反相机可能是气候变化带来的代价最高,最永久的后果之一。在这篇评论中,我们综合了关于迅速发展的人类流动性和对单反的反应的知识,为未来的单反研究和相关政策提供了一致的路线图。尽管通常认为直接淹没会迫使移民迁徙,但我们讨论了流动性应对措施是如何由多种社会经济和人口因素驱动的,在某些情况下,这些因素不会导致移民迁徙。我们将单反相机的危害与潜在的迁移机制以及相关的政府或机构政策联系在一起,这些政策或障碍是迁移的障碍或促进者。使用来自美国,孟加拉国和环礁岛国的特定示例来对这些概念进行语境化。但是,需要进一步研究SLR迁移的基本机制,临界点,阈值和反馈,风险感知和迁移,以充分了解对SLR的迁移响应。

更新日期:2019-12-18
down
wechat
bug