BACKGROUND We determine the best combination of factors for predicting the risk of developing fear of falling (FOF) in older people via Classification Regression Tree (CaRT) analysis. METHODS Community-dwelling older adults living in Canada, Albania, Brazil, and Colombia were from International Mobility in Aging Study (IMIAS). In 2014, 1,725 participants (aged 65-74) were assessed. With a retention rate of 81%, in 2016, 1,409 individuals were reassessed. Risk factors for FOF were entered into the CaRT: age, sex, education, self-rated health, comorbidity, medication, visual impairment, frailty, cognitive deficit, depression, fall history, Short Physical Performance Battery (SPPB), walking aid use, and mobility disability measured by the Nagi questionnaire. RESULTS The classification tree included 12 end groups representing differential risks of FOF with a minimum of two and a maximum of five predictors. The first split in the tree involved impaired physical function (SPPB scores). Respondents with less than 8 in SPPB score and mobility disability had 82% risk of developing FOF at the end of 2-year follow-up. Between 23.2% and 82.3% of the risk of developing FOF in 2 years of follow-up were explained by only five variables: age, sex, self-rated health, functional impairment measured by SPPB, and mobility disability. In those with no functional impairment or mobility disability, levels of education, sex, and self-rated health were important predictors of FOF in the future. CONCLUSION This classification tree included different groups based on specific combinations of a maximum of five easily measurable predictors with emphasis on impaired physical functioning risk factors for developing FOF.

中文翻译：

---

识别掉落风险因素的回归树：国际人口老龄化研究（IMIAS）。

背景技术我们通过分类回归树（CaRT）分析，确定了预测老年人出现跌倒恐惧（FOF）风险的因素的最佳组合。方法居住在加拿大，阿尔巴尼亚，巴西和哥伦比亚的社区老年人均来自国际老龄化流动研究（IMIAS）。2014年，对1,725名参与者（65-74岁）进行了评估。2016年，保留率达81％，对1,409个人进行了重新评估。进入CaRT的FOF危险因素包括：年龄，性别，教育程度，自我评估的健康状况，合并症，药物治疗，视力障碍，虚弱，认知缺陷，抑郁，跌倒病史，身体矮小（SPPB），使用助行器，和Nagi问卷所测得的行动不便。结果分类树包括代表FOF的不同风险的12个末端组，其中最少两个，最多五个预测因子。树中的第一个拆分涉及受损的身体功能（SPPB分数）。SPPB得分低于8且行动不便的受访者在2年的随访结束时有82％的人发生FOF的风险。仅通过以下五个变量解释了在2年的随访中发生FOF的风险的23.2％至82.3％：年龄，性别，自我评估的健康状况，通过SPPB测量的功能障碍和行动不便。在没有功能障碍或行动障碍的人群中，教育程度，性别和自我评估的健康水平是未来FOF的重要预测指标。