When people make risky choices, two kinds of information are crucial: outcome values and outcome probabilities. Here, we demonstrate that the juncture at which value and probability information is provided has a fundamental effect on choice. Across four experiments involving 489 participants, we compared two decision-making scenarios: one in which value information was revealed during sampling (standard) and one in which value information was revealed after sampling (value ignorance). On average, participants made riskier choices when value information was provided after sampling. Moreover, parameter estimates from a hierarchical Bayesian implementation of cumulative-prospect theory suggested that participants overweighted rare events when value information was absent during sampling but did not overweight such events in the standard condition. This suggests that the impact of rare events on choice relies crucially on the timing of probability and value integration. We provide paths toward mechanistic explanations of our results based on frameworks that assume different underlying cognitive architectures.

中文翻译：

---

如何根据经验改变罕见事件在决策中的权重

当人们做出有风险的选择时，两种信息至关重要：结果值和结果概率。在这里，我们证明了提供价值和概率信息的关键点对选择有根本的影响。在涉及 489 名参与者的四项实验中，我们比较了两种决策情景：一种是在抽样期间揭示价值信息（标准），另一种是在抽样后揭示价值信息（价值无知）。平均而言，在抽样后提供价值信息时，参与者会做出更冒险的选择。此外，累积前景理论的分层贝叶斯实现的参数估计表明，当抽样期间缺少价值信息时，参与者会高估稀有事件，但在标准条件下不会超重此类事件。这表明罕见事件对选择的影响主要取决于概率和价值整合的时机。我们提供了基于假设不同底层认知架构的框架对我们的结果进行机械解释的途径。