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Do we need multivariate modeling approaches to model crash frequency by crash types? A panel mixed approach to modeling crash frequency by crash types
Analytic Methods in Accident Research ( IF 12.9 ) Pub Date : 2019-10-31 , DOI: 10.1016/j.amar.2019.100107
Tanmoy Bhowmik , Shamsunnahar Yasmin , Naveen Eluru

In safety literature, simulation-based multivariate framework is the most commonly employed approach for analyzing multiple crash frequency dependent variables. The current research effort contributes to literature on crash frequency analysis by suggesting an alternative and mathematically simpler approach for analyzing multiple crash frequency variables for the same study unit. The proposed recasts a multivariate distributional problem as a repeated measure univariate problem. Specifically, we employed a simpler panel random parameter based univariate model framework to analyze zonal level crash counts for different crash types. The empirical analysis is based on the traffic analysis zone (TAZ) level crash count data for both motorized and non-motorized crashes from Central Florida for the year 2016. The performance of the proposed framework is compared with the performance of the random parameter multivariate negative binomial model (RPMNB) using a host of metrics for estimation sample and hold-out sample. The resulting goodness of fit and predictive measures clearly highlight the comparable performance offered by the proposed framework relative to the commonly used RPMNB model with substantially fewer parameters. The comparison exercise is augmented by computing aggregate level elasticity effects for both PMNB and RPMNB models. The results clearly highlight the comparable performance offered by the proposed PMNB model relative to the traditional RPMNB model. In summary, the proposed framework allows for a parsimonious specification without compromising the model explanatory power and provides similar performance as the most traditional multivariate NB model for analyzing different crash dimensions.



中文翻译:

我们是否需要多元建模方法来按碰撞类型对碰撞频率进行建模?一种按碰撞类型对碰撞频率进行建模的面板混合方法

在安全文献中,基于仿真的多元框架是分析多个碰撞频率相关变量的最常用方法。当前的研究成果为碰撞频率分析提供了文献资料,它提出了一种替代的且在数学上更简单的方法来分析同一研究单元的多个碰撞频率变量。提议将多变量分布问题重铸为重复测量单变量问题。具体来说,我们采用了一个基于面板随机参数的简单单变量模型框架来分析不同碰撞类型的区域级碰撞计数。经验分析基于2016年佛罗里达州中部发生的机动和非机动事故的交通分析区域(TAZ)级事故计数数据。使用大量用于估计样本和保留样本的指标,将提出的框架的性能与随机参数多元负二项式模型(RPMNB)的性能进行比较。由此产生的拟合优度和预测性措施清楚地凸显了所提出的框架相对于具有较少参数的常用RPMNB模型所具有的可比性能。通过为PMNB和RPMNB模型计算聚合级别的弹性效应,可以增强比较结果。结果清楚地表明了所提出的PMNB模型与传统RPMNB模型相比具有可比的性能。总之,

更新日期:2019-10-31
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