Shifts in phenology that are driven by climate change have substantial impacts on ecosystems, but the effects of these ecological shifts on coupled social–ecological systems remain largely unexplored. Using a large database of crowd‐sourced photographs from the image‐hosting website Flickr, we show that early snow disappearance conditions similar to those expected by the late 21st century cause the seasonal peak of human visitation at Mount Rainier National Park (NP) to become mismatched from the seasonal peak of wildflower displays, a key visitor draw. Our work indicates that these mismatches between social and ecological systems were a product of both visitor behavior and management constraints, and could fundamentally alter visitor experiences in iconic natural areas like Mount Rainier NP. Recent dramatic growth in the volume of georeferenced citizen‐based observations and the increased availability of high‐resolution climate data will soon make it feasible to examine how climate affects social–ecological mismatches at very large spatial scales.

中文翻译：

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人群数据揭示了气候驱动的物候方面的社会生态失配

由气候变化驱动的物候学变化对生态系统具有重大影响，但这些生态变化对社会生态系统耦合的影响仍未得到充分探索。利用来自图片托管网站Flickr的大量群众照片集数据库，我们发现，早期降雪条件与21世纪末所预期的相似，导致人类在雷尼尔山国家公园（NP）的旅游高峰达到季节性与野花展示的季节性高峰（主要访客吸引）不匹配。我们的工作表明，社会和生态系统之间的不匹配是游客行为和管理约束的产物，并且可能从根本上改变雷尼尔山NP等标志性自然地区的游客体验。