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Trends in United States large hail environments and observations
npj Climate and Atmospheric Science ( IF 9 ) Pub Date : 2019-12-06 , DOI: 10.1038/s41612-019-0103-7
Brian H. Tang , Vittorio A. Gensini , Cameron R. Homeyer

Understanding trends in large hail-producing environments is an important component of estimating hail risk. Here, we use two environmental parameters, the Large Hail Parameter and the Significant Hail Parameter, to assess trends in days with environments conducive for hail ≥5 cm. From 1979 to 2017, there has been an increase in days with favorable large hail environments in central and eastern portions of the U.S. This increase has been driven primarily by an increasing frequency of days with steep mid-tropospheric lapse rates and necessary combinations of instability and vertical wind shear for severe thunderstorms. Annual large hail environment area is significantly, positively correlated with (1) large hail report area east of the Rocky Mountains, and (2) large hail radar-derived area in the Midwest and Northeast. This evidence suggests that there may be an environmental fingerprint on increasing large hail risk and expanding this risk eastward.



中文翻译:

美国大型冰雹环境的趋势和观测

了解大型冰雹生产环境中的趋势是估计冰雹风险的重要组成部分。在此,我们使用两个环境参数,大冰雹参数和重大冰雹参数,来评估在有利于冰雹≥5cm的环境中的日趋势。从1979年到2017年,美国中部和东部地区出现大冰雹环境的日子有所增加,这主要是由于对流层中层急速下降的天数增加,以及不稳定和暴雨的必要组合所致。垂直风切变严重雷暴。年度大冰雹环境面积与(1)落基山脉以东的大冰雹报告区域,以及(2)中西部和东北部的大冰雹雷达来源区域呈显着正相关。

更新日期:2019-12-06
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