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The promise and the peril of using social influence to reverse harmful traditions.
Nature Human Behaviour ( IF 29.9 ) Pub Date : 2019-12-02 , DOI: 10.1038/s41562-019-0768-2
Charles Efferson 1 , Sonja Vogt 2, 3, 4 , Ernst Fehr 5, 6
Affiliation  

For a policy-maker promoting the end of a harmful tradition, conformist social influence is a compelling mechanism. If an intervention convinces enough people to abandon the tradition, this can spill over and induce others to follow. A key objective is thus to activate such spillovers and amplify an intervention's effects. With female genital cutting as a motivating example, we develop empirically informed analytical and simulation models to examine this idea. Even if conformity pervades decision-making, spillovers can range from irrelevant to indispensable. Our analysis highlights three considerations. First, ordinary forms of individual heterogeneity can severely limit spillovers, and understanding the heterogeneity in a population is essential. Second, although interventions often target samples of the population biased towards ending the harmful tradition, targeting a representative sample is a more robust way to achieve spillovers. Finally, if the harmful tradition contributes to group identity, the success of spillovers can depend critically on disrupting the link between identity and tradition.

中文翻译:

利用社会影响扭转有害传统的希望和危险。

对于倡导结束有害传统的政策制定者而言,顺从性社会影响力是一种令人信服的机制。如果一项干预措施说服了足够多的人放弃传统,那么这可能会蔓延开来,并诱使其他人效仿。因此,一个关键目标是激活这种溢出效应并扩大干预措施的效果。以女性生殖器切割为例,我们开发了经验丰富的分析和模拟模型来检验这一想法。即使一致性遍及决策,溢出效应的范围也可能无关紧要,甚至是必不可少的。我们的分析突出了三个注意事项。首先,个体异质性的普通形式会严重限制溢出,了解人口中的异质性至关重要。第二,尽管干预措施通常针对倾向于结束有害传统的人群样本,但针对代表性样本是实现溢出效应的更有效方法。最后,如果有害传统助长了群体认同,那么溢出效应的成功可能严重取决于破坏认同与传统之间的联系。
更新日期:2019-12-02
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