Testicular cancer is the most common cancer among young men of European ancestry, with about one‐third of all cases occurring in Europe. With the historically increasing trends in some high‐incidence populations reported to have stabilised in recent years, we aimed to assess recent trends and predict the future testicular cancer incidence burden across Europe. We extracted testicular cancer (ICD‐10 C62) incidence data from Cancer Incidence in Five Continents Volumes VII–XI and complemented this with data published by registries from 28 European countries. We predicted cancer incidence rates and the number of incident cases in Europe in the year 2035 using the NORDPRED age‐period‐cohort model. Testicular cancer incidence rates will increase in 21 out of 28 countries over the period 2010–2035, with trends attenuating in the high‐incidence populations of Denmark, Norway, Switzerland and Austria. Although population ageing would be expected to reduce the number of cases, this demographic effect is outweighed by increasing risk, leading to an overall increase in the number of cases by 2035 in Europe, and by region (21, 13 and 32% in Northern, Western and Eastern Europe, respectively). Declines are however predicted in Italy and Spain, amounting to 12% less cases in 2035 in Southern Europe overall. In conclusion, the burden of testicular cancer incidence in Europe will continue to increase, particularly in historically lower‐risk countries. The largest increase in the number of testicular cancer patients is predicted in Eastern Europe, where survival is lower, reinforcing the need to ensure the provision of effective treatment across Europe.

中文翻译：

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2010-2035 年欧洲睾丸癌发病率预测：尽管人口老龄化，但负担仍在增加。

睾丸癌是欧洲血统的年轻男性中最常见的癌症，大约三分之一的病例发生在欧洲。据报道，近年来一些高发病率人群的历史增长趋势已趋于稳定，我们旨在评估近期趋势并预测整个欧洲未来的睾丸癌发病率负担。我们从五大洲癌症发病率第 VII-XI 卷中提取睾丸癌 (ICD-10 C62) 发病率数据并补充了来自 28 个欧洲国家的注册机构发布的数据。我们使用 NORDPRED 年龄-时期-队列模型预测了 2035 年欧洲的癌症发病率和发病病例数。在 2010-2035 年期间，28 个国家中的 21 个国家的睾丸癌发病率将增加，丹麦、挪威、瑞士和奥地利的高发病率人群趋势减弱。尽管预计人口老龄化会减少病例数量，但这种人口效应被风险增加所抵消，导致到 2035 年欧洲和地区的病例数量总体增加（北部分别为 21%、13% 和 32%，分别是西欧和东欧）。然而，预计意大利和西班牙的病例会下降，到 2035 年，南欧的病例总数将减少 12%。综上所述，欧洲睾丸癌发病率的负担将继续增加，特别是在历史上风险较低的国家。预计睾丸癌患者人数增加最多的是东欧，那里的生存率较低，这加强了确保在整个欧洲提供有效治疗的必要性。