The shift from fossil fuels and traditional renewable energy to costlier modern renewable energy based on geothermal wind and solar resources is explained. Statistical data collected from 14 countries with a population greater than 100 million inhabitants was used, where the EU is considered as a country. The period from 1990 to 2015 is covered, however divided in two parts, 1990–2005 when conditions were not favourable for renewable energy because the price of fossil fuels and policy support for renewable energy were low, and 2005–2015 when these conditions improved. Theoretical analyses show that the high price of fossil fuels, policy support and cost-effective technologies can explain the fast growth of modern renewable energy during 2005–2015; however, they only partially account for its slower growth during 1990–2005. An additional explanation might be that the innovators generate qualities due to renewable energy use, which are expressed on the markets as value addition of energy services. The statistical analysis of energy services during 1990–2005 shows that the European Union (EU) led in renewable energy compared to the United States (US), Japan and other countries, which was driven by the social initiatives that fostered new firms in the electricity and gas business. A statistical analysis of energy services in the US and EU during 2005–2015 reveals that their value added has grown on an annual average of 2.0% and 2.8%, respectively, which denotes an annual increase of 3 billion and 6 billion US dollars in the 2005 value (USD2005). This valorisation of energy services has invoked further innovations in distributed energy systems and energy storage. A further statistical analysis of the 14 largest countries by population confirms a valorisation of energy services due to modern renewable energy where the emission reduction of carbon dioxide (CO2) is a side-effect. Extrapolation of the average growth rates from the period 1990 to 2015 to the period 2015 to 2040, without any change but a substitution of fossil fuels for renewable energy, demonstrates that global income would grow fourfold and energy consumption twofold along with a 100 times larger modern renewable energy and CO2 reduction to 46% of the 2015 level. When those average growth rates of renewable energy decrease linear to 25% in 2040, the global modern renewable energy grows tenfold and CO2 reduces to 82% of the 2015 level. The implication of this statistical study on large countries shows that higher value energy services for households are often based on distributed renewable energy and that such an addition of value generates a CO2 emission reduction as a side effect which can be enhanced by pricing CO2 or obstructed by policy support for the vested interests. This study indicated that the valorisation of energy services will generate a growth of income, energy consumption and renewable energy along with a far-reaching emission reduction of CO2 if policies do foster sustainable innovations.

中文翻译：

---

能源服务的定价：关于可再生能源带来的增值的论文

解释了从化石燃料和传统可再生能源向基于地热风能和太阳能的昂贵的现代可再生能源的转变。使用了从14个人口超过1亿人口的国家/地区收集的统计数据，其中欧盟被视为一个国家/地区。涵盖了1990年至2015年的这段时间，但分为两个部分：1990年至2005年（由于化石燃料的价格和可再生能源的政策支持低而不利于可再生能源的条件）和2005年至2015年（这些条件得到改善）。理论分析表明，化石燃料的高昂价格，政策支持和具有成本效益的技术可以解释现代可再生能源在2005-2015年间的快速增长。然而，它们仅部分解释了1990-2005年间增长放缓的原因。另一个解释可能是，创新者由于使用可再生能源而产生了品质，这些品质在市场上被表述为能源服务的增值。1990-2005年间对能源服务的统计分析表明，与美国（美国），日本和其他国家相比，欧盟（EU）在可再生能源方面处于领先地位，这是由推动电力新公司发展的社会倡议驱动的和天然气业务。对美国和欧盟2005-2015年间能源服务的统计分析表明，它们的增加值分别以年均2.0％和2.8％的速度增长，这意味着在美国和欧洲，能源服务的年均增长30亿美元和60亿美元。 2005年的价值（USD2005）。能源服务的这种价格上涨已在分布式能源系统和储能方面引发了进一步的创新。对14个最大国家/地区按人口进行的进一步统计分析证实，由于现代可再生能源的使用，二氧化碳（CO2）的减排是副作用，因此能源服务的价值得到了提高。对1990年至2015年期间至2015年至2040年期间的平均增长率进行推断，没有任何变化，只是用化石燃料替代了可再生能源，这表明全球收入将增长四倍，能源消耗将增长三倍，而现代能源将增长100倍可再生能源和二氧化碳的排放量达到2015年水平的46％。当这些可再生能源的平均增长率在2040年线性下降至25％时，全球现代可再生能源将增长十倍，而二氧化碳则将降至2015年水平的82％。这项统计研究对大国的影响表明，为家庭提供更高价值的能源服务通常基于分布式可再生能源，并且这种附加价值产生了减少CO2排放的副作用，而这种副作用可以通过对CO2定价或通过阻碍CO2定价而得到加强。对既得利益的政策支持。这项研究表明，如果政策能够促进可持续性创新，那么能源服务的价格合理化将带来收入，能源消耗和可再生能源的增长，并实现意义深远的二氧化碳减排。