Majority burn mortality prognostic scores were developed and validated in western populations. The primary objective of this study was to evaluate and identify possible risk factors which may be used to predict burns mortality in a local Malaysian burns intensive care unit. The secondary objective was to validate the five well known burn prognostic scores (Baux score, Abbreviated Burn Severity Index (ABSI) score, Ryan score, Belgium Outcome Burn Injury (BOBI) score and revised Baux score) to predict burn mortality prediction. Patients that were treated at the Hospital Sultan Ismail’s Burns Intensive Care (BICU) unit for acute burn injuries between 1 January 2010 to 31 December 2017 were included. Risk factors to predict in-patient burn mortality were gender, age, mechanism of injury, total body surface area burn (TBSA), inhalational injury, mechanical ventilation, presence of tracheotomy, time from of burn injury to BICU admission and initial centre of first emergency treatment was administered. These variables were analysed using univariate and multivariate analysis for the outcomes of death. All patients were scored retrospectively using the five-burn mortality prognostic scores. Predictive ability for burn mortality was analysed using the area under receiver operating curve (AUROC). A total of 525 patients (372 males and 153 females) with mean age of 34.5 ± 14.6 years were included. There were 463 survivors and 62 deaths (11.8% mortality rate). The outcome of the primary objective showed that amongst the burn mortality risk factors that remained after multivariate analysis were older age (p = 0.004), wider TBSA burn (p < 0.001) and presence of mechanical ventilation (p < 0.001). Outcome of secondary objective showed good AUROC value for the prediction of burn death for all five burn prediction scores (Baux score; AUROC:0.9, ABSI score; AUROC:0.92, Ryan score; AUROC:0.87, BOBI score; AUROC:0.91 and revised Baux score; AUROC:0.94). The revised Baux score had the best AUROC value of 0.94 to predict burns mortality. Current study evaluated and identified older age, total body surface area burns, and mechanical ventilation as significant predictors of burn mortality. In addition, the revised Baux score was the most accurate burn mortality risk score to predict mortality in a Malaysian burn’s population.

中文翻译：

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马来西亚烧伤重症监护病房的死亡率预测因素和烧伤死亡率预后评分的验证

在西方人群中开发并验证了多数烧伤死亡率的预后评分。这项研究的主要目的是评估和确定可能的风险因素，这些风险因素可用于预测马来西亚当地烧伤重症监护病房的烧伤死亡率。次要目标是验证五个众所周知的烧伤预后评分（Baux评分，简要烧伤严重程度指数（ABSI）评分，Ryan评分，比利时结局烧伤（BOBI）评分和修订的Baux评分），以预测烧伤死亡率。包括在2010年1月1日至2017年12月31日期间在医院苏丹伊斯梅尔医院烧伤加护病房（BICU）接受治疗的急性烧伤患者。预测住院烧伤死亡率的危险因素是性别，年龄，损伤机理，全身表面积烧伤（TBSA），吸入性伤害，进行机械通气，气管切开术，从烧伤到BICU入院的时间以及首次紧急治疗的初始中心。使用单变量和多变量分析对这些变量进行死亡结局分析。所有患者均使用五烧伤死亡率预后评分进行回顾性评分。使用接收器工作曲线（AUROC）下的面积分析了烧伤死亡率的预测能力。纳入525例患者（男性372例，女性153例），平均年龄为34.5±14.6岁。有463名幸存者和62例死亡（11.8％的死亡率）。主要目标的结果表明，经多变量分析后仍然存在的烧伤死亡风险因素包括年龄较大（p = 0.004），更广泛的TBSA烧伤（p <0.001）和存在机械通气（p <0）。001）。次要目标的结果显示，在所有五个烧伤预测评分（Baux评分； AUROC：0.9，ABSI评分； AUROC：0.92，Ryan评分； AUROC：0.87，BOBI评分； AUROC：0.91和修订版）中，烧伤死亡的预测均具有良好的AUROC值Baux分数； AUROC：0.94）。修订后的Baux评分具有0.94的最佳AUROC值，可预测烧伤死亡率。当前的研究评估并确定了老年人，全身表面积烧伤和机械通气是烧伤死亡率的重要预测指标。此外，修订后的Baux评分是最准确的烧伤死亡率风险评分，可用来预测马来西亚烧伤人口的死亡率。91分和修正的Baux分数；AUROC：0.94）。修订后的Baux评分具有0.94的最佳AUROC值，可预测烧伤死亡率。当前的研究评估并确定了老年人，全身表面积烧伤和机械通气是烧伤死亡率的重要预测指标。此外，修订后的Baux评分是最准确的烧伤死亡率风险评分，可用来预测马来西亚烧伤人口的死亡率。91分和修正的Baux分数；AUROC：0.94）。修订后的Baux评分具有0.94的最佳AUROC值，可预测烧伤死亡率。当前的研究评估并确定了老年人，全身表面积烧伤和机械通气是烧伤死亡率的重要预测指标。此外，修订后的Baux评分是最准确的烧伤死亡率风险评分，可用来预测马来西亚烧伤人口的死亡率。