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Rising future tropical cyclone-induced extreme winds in the Mekong River Basin
Science Bulletin ( IF 18.9 ) Pub Date : 2019-11-22 , DOI: 10.1016/j.scib.2019.11.022
Aifang Chen 1 , Kerry A Emanuel 2 , Deliang Chen 1 , Changgui Lin 1 , Fuqing Zhang 3
Affiliation  

The societal impact of extreme winds induced by tropical cyclones (TCs) is a major concern in the Mekong River Basin (MRB). Though no clear trend of landfalling TC intensity along the Vietnam coastline has been observed since the 1970s, climate models project an increasing TC intensity in the 21st century over the Western North Pacific, which is the primary TC source region influencing the MRB. Yet, how future TC activities will affect extreme winds quantitatively in the MRB remains unclear. By employing a novel dynamical downscaling technique using a specialized, coupled ocean-atmospheric model, shorter return periods of maximum wind speed in the MRB for 2081-2100 compared with 1981-2000 are projected based on five global climate models under the RCP8.5 scenario, suggesting increases in the future tropical cyclone intensity. The results point to consistently elevated future TC-related risks that may jeopardize sustainable development, disrupt food supply, and exacerbate conflicts in the region and beyond.



中文翻译:

未来热带气旋上升将在湄公河流域引发极端风

热带气旋 (TC) 引发的极端风的社会影响是湄公河流域 (MRB) 的一个主要问题。尽管自 1970 年代以来没有观察到沿越南海岸线登陆 TC 强度的明显趋势,但气候模型预测 21 世纪西北太平洋 TC 强度增加,这是影响 MRB 的主要 TC 源区。然而,未来的 TC 活动将如何在数量上影响 MRB 中的极端风仍不清楚。通过采用专门的耦合海洋大气模型的新型动力降尺度技术,根据 RCP8.5 情景下的五个全球气候模型,预测 2081-2100 年 MRB 最大风速的重现期比 1981-2000 年更短,表明未来热带气旋强度会增加。

更新日期:2019-11-22
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