BACKGROUND Squamous cell carcinoma of the anus (SCCA) incidence is rising in the United States (US). Study of incidence trends by stage at diagnosis, age-specific and birth cohort patterns, and trends in mortality could provide evidence for a true increase and etiological clues for this rise. METHODS Using the US Cancer Statistics dataset, we examined trends in SCCA incidence (2001-2015) and mortality (2001-2016) rates. Joinpoint regression was used to compute annual and average annual percentage change (AAPC). Incidence patterns by five-year age group and birth cohort were evaluated using incidence rate ratios (IRRs) and age-period-cohort modeling. RESULTS SCCA incidence increased 2.7% per year (95% confidence interval [CI] = 2.1%-3.3%) with pronounced increases in age groups 50 years and older. Distant stage SCCA incidence tripled (AAPC, 8.6% [95% CI = 5.4%-12.0%]) among men and 7.5% [95% CI = 4.8%-10.2%] among women) and regional stage SCCA incidence nearly doubled (AAPC, 4.7% for men and women) in both sexes; the AAPC for localized stage was 1.3% [95% CI = 0.6%-2.0%] in men and 2.3% [95% CI = 1.8%-2.8%] in women. Compared to adults born circa 1946, recent born Black men (born circa 1986) had nearly fivefold higher (IRR, 4.7; 95% CI = 2.1-10.2) risk of SCCA and the risk doubled among White men (IRR= 2.0; 95% CI = 1.7-2.2) and White women (IRR, 2.1; 95% CI = 1.9-2.3) born after circa 1960. Anal cancer mortality rates increased 3.1% per year (95% CI = 2.6%-3.5%) with statistically significant increases in age groups 50 years and older. Incidence-based mortality increased 1.9% annually (95% CI = 0.5%-3.4%) with a notable (4.9% [95% CI = 2.4%-7.3%] per year) rise in 60-69-year-old adults. CONCLUSION The rise in SCCA incidence, particularly advanced stage disease, and a similar rise in mortality, suggests a true increase in the occurance of SCCA. Future research and improved prevention is urgently needed to mitigate the rising disease burden.

中文翻译：

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美国肛门发病率和死亡率的鳞状细胞癌的近期趋势，2001-2015年。

背景技术在美国（US），肛门鳞状细胞癌（SCCA）的发病率正在上升。对诊断的阶段性发病趋势，特定年龄和出生队列模式以及死亡率趋势进行研究，可以为这种上升的真正原因和病因线索提供证据。方法使用美国癌症统计数据集，我们检查了SCCA发生率（2001-2015）和死亡率（2001-2016）的趋势。连接点回归用于计算年度和平均年度百分比变化（AAPC）。使用发病率比率（IRR）和年龄-时期-队列模型评估了五岁年龄组和出生队列的发病模式。结果SCCA发生率每年增加2.7％（95％的置信区间[CI] = 2.1％-3.3％），而50岁以上的年龄组明显增加。远期SCCA发病率增加了两倍（AAPC，8。男性为6％[95％CI = 5.4％-12.0％]），女性为7.5％[95％CI = 4.8％-10.2％]），区域阶段SCCA发病率几乎翻了一番（AAPC，男性为4.7％）男女两性；男性的局部阶段AAPC为1.3％[95％CI = 0.6％-2.0％]，女性为2.3％[95％CI = 1.8％-2.8％]。与大约1946年左右出生的成年人相比，刚出生的黑人（1986年左右出生）的SCCA患病风险高近五倍（IRR，4.7； 95％CI = 2.1-10.2），而白人男性的患病风险翻了一番（IRR = 2.0； 95％ CI = 1.7-2.2）和1960年后出生的白人女性（IRR，2.1； 95％CI = 1.9-2.3）。肛门癌死亡率每年增加3.1％（95％CI = 2.6％-3.5％），具有统计学意义50岁及以上年龄段的人的年龄增加。基于发病率的死亡率每年增加1.9％（95％CI = 0.5％-3.4％），显着（4.9％[95％CI = 2.4％-7]。60-69岁的成年人每年增长3％]。结论SCCA发病率的上升，特别是晚期疾病，以及类似的死亡率上升，表明SCCA的发生率确实增加了。迫切需要未来的研究和改进的预防措施，以减轻不断增加的疾病负担。