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Certain trends in uncertainty and sensitivity analysis: An overview of techniques and tools
Environmental Modelling & Software ( IF 4.9 ) Pub Date : 2019-11-18 , DOI: 10.1016/j.envsoft.2019.104588
Dominique Douglas-Smith , Takuya Iwanaga , Barry F.W. Croke , Anthony J. Jakeman

Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis (UA/SA) aid in assessing whether model complexity is warranted and under what conditions. To support these analyses software tools have been developed to provide UA/SA methods and approaches in an accessible manner. This paper applies a hybrid bibliometric approach using Web of Science data to identify software packages for UA/SA within the environmental sciences and general trends in environmental UA/SA. We find an increased interest in uncertainty management, particularly improving the reliability and effectiveness of UA/SA. Although available software is typically open-source and freely available, uptake of software tools is apparently slow or otherwise their use under-reported. We also see a prevalence for self-implemented UA/SA tools and general usability is an ongoing concern. An overview of available software is provided to aid modelers in choosing an appropriate software tool for their purposes. Code and representative data used for this analysis can be found at https://github.com/frog7/uasa-trends (10.5281/zenodo.3406946).



中文翻译:

不确定性和敏感性分析的某些趋势:技术和工具概述

不确定性和敏感性分析(UA / SA)有助于评估是否需要保证模型的复杂性以及在什么条件下进行。为了支持这些分析,已经开发了软件工具以以可访问的方式提供UA / SA方法和方法。本文使用混合的文献计量方法,使用Web of Science数据来识别环境科学中的UA / SA软件包以及环境UA / SA的一般趋势。我们发现人们对不确定性管理越来越感兴趣,尤其是提高UA / SA的可靠性和有效性。尽管可用软件通常是开源的并且可以免费获得,但是软件工具的使用显然很慢,或者报告了其使用率不足的情况。我们也看到了自我实现的UA / SA工具的普遍性,而通用性一直是一个令人担忧的问题。提供了可用软件的概述,以帮助建模人员为他们的目的选择合适的软件工具。用于此分析的代码和代表性数据可以在https://github.com/frog7/uasa-trends(10.5281 / zenodo.3406946)中找到。

更新日期:2019-11-18
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