Whether ecosystems recover from disturbance depends on the presence of alternative stable states, which are theoretically possible in simple models of many systems. However, definitive empirical evidence for this phenomenon remains limited to demographically closed ecosystems such as lakes. In more interconnected systems such as temperate rocky reefs, the local relevance of alternative stable states might erode as immigration overwhelms local feedbacks and produces a single stable state. At larger spatial scales, dispersal might counter localized disturbance and feedbacks to synchronize states throughout a region. Here, we quantify how interconnectedness affects the relevance of alternative stable states using dynamical models of California rocky reef communities that incorporate observed environmental stochasticity and feedback loops in kelp-urchin-predator interactions. Our models demonstrate the potential for localized alternative states despite high interconnectedness, likely due to feedbacks affecting dispersers as they settle into local communities. Regionally, such feedbacks affecting settlement can produce a mosaic of alternative stable states that span local (10-20km) scales despite the synchronizing effect of long-distance dispersal. The specific spatial scale and duration of each state predominantly depend on the scales of environmental variation and on local dynamics (here, fishing). Model predictions reflect observed scales of community states in California rocky reefs and suggest how alternative states co-occur in the wide array of marine and terrestrial systems with settlement feedbacks.

中文翻译：

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在高度相互关联的生态系统中，替代稳定状态在哪些空间尺度上是相关的？

生态系统能否从干扰中恢复取决于替代稳定状态的存在，这在许多系统的简单模型中理论上是可能的。然而，这种现象的确切经验证据仍然仅限于人口封闭的生态系统，如湖泊。在温带岩礁等相互关联的系统中，替代稳定状态的局部相关性可能会随着移民压倒局部反馈并产生单一稳定状态而减弱。在更大的空间尺度上，分散可能会对抗局部干扰和反馈，以同步整个区域的状态。这里，我们使用加利福尼亚岩礁群落的动力学模型量化互连性如何影响替代稳定状态的相关性，该模型结合了观察到的环境随机性和海带-海胆-捕食者相互作用中的反馈回路。我们的模型证明了本地化替代状态的潜力，尽管它们具有高度的相互关联性，这可能是由于分散者在融入当地社区时受到影响的反馈。在区域上，尽管存在长距离扩散的同步效应，但这种影响沉降的反馈可以产生跨越局部（10-20 公里）尺度的替代稳定状态的马赛克。每个州的特定空间尺度和持续时间主要取决于环境变化的尺度和当地动态（这里是捕鱼）。