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High-status lobbyists are most likely to overrate their success.
Nature Human Behaviour ( IF 29.9 ) Pub Date : 2019-11-04 , DOI: 10.1038/s41562-019-0761-9
Benjamin A Lyons 1 , Amy Melissa McKay 2 , Jason Reifler 2
Affiliation  

Overconfidence helps individuals reach higher status within social groups by making them seem more competent regardless of objective ability, so this bias may be especially prevalent among status-oriented members of elite communities. Based on this premise, we explore whether lobbyists in the USA misperceive their success. Using models that (1) control for legislative outcome when predicting self-assessed policy success and (2) compare self-assessed policy success on specific proposals against the average success reported by all lobbyists working on the same side of an issue, we identify systematic tendencies to overrate achievements. Lobbyists with higher incomes, who reside in Washington, DC, USA, have congressional experience and who engage in a broader range of activities are more likely to overrate their success. Public interest group lobbyists tend to underestimate success. We conclude that political elites are subject to the same biases as others when evaluating their performance, and these biases may be largely status-driven.

中文翻译:

高地位的游说者最有可能高估他们的成功。

过度自信可以使个人无论客观能力如何都变得更有能力,从而在社会团体中获得较高的地位,因此这种偏见在精英社区中以地位为导向的成员中尤其普遍。在此前提下,我们探讨了美国的游说者是否误解了他们的成功。我们使用模型(1)在预测自我评估的政策成功时控制立法结果,以及(2)将针对特定提案的自我评估的政策成功与同一问题同一侧所有游说者报告的平均成功进行比较,倾向于高估成就的趋势。居住在美国华盛顿特区的收入较高的游说者具有国会经验,并且参加范围广泛的活动更可能高估他们的成功。公益团体的游说者往往低估了成功。我们得出的结论是,政治精英在评估其绩效时会受到与其他精英相同的偏见,而这些偏见在很大程度上可能是地位驱动的。
更新日期:2019-11-04
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