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Urban warming and future air-conditioning use in an Asian megacity: importance of positive feedback
npj Climate and Atmospheric Science ( IF 9 ) Pub Date : 2019-10-25 , DOI: 10.1038/s41612-019-0096-2
Yuya Takane , Yukihiro Kikegawa , Masayuki Hara , C. Sue B. Grimmond

The impact of feedback between urban warming and air-conditioning (AC) use on temperatures in future urban climates is explored in this study. Pseudo-global warming projections are dynamically downscaled to 1 km using a regional climate model (RCM) coupled to urban canopy and building energy models for current and six future global warming (ΔTGW) climates based on IPCC RCP8.5. Anthropogenic heat emissions from AC use is projected to increase almost linearly with ΔTGW, causing additional urban warming. This feedback on urban warming reaches 20% of ΔTGW in residential areas. This further uncertainty in future projections is comparable in size to that associated with: a selection of emission scenarios, RCMs, and urban planning scenarios. Thus this feedback should not be neglected in future urban climate projections, especially in hot cities with large AC use. The impact of the feedback during the July 2018 Japanese heat waves is calculated to be 0.11 °C.



中文翻译:

亚洲大城市的城市变暖和未来的空调使用:积极反馈的重要性

本研究探讨了城市变暖和空调使用之间的反馈对未来城市气候中温度的影响。使用区域气候模型(RCM)结合城市机盖和基于IPCC RCP8.5的当前和未来六种全球变暖(ΔT GW)气候的建筑能源模型,将伪全球变暖预测动态缩减至1 km 。预计使用交流电产生的人为热量会随着ΔT GW的增加而线性增加,从而导致城市变暖。关于城市变暖的反馈达到了ΔT GW的20%在居民区。未来预测中进一步不确定性的大小可与以下方面相提并论:排放情景,RCM和城市规划情景的选择。因此,在未来的城市气候预测中,尤其是在使用大量交流电的炎热城市中,不应忽略这种反馈。计算得出的反馈在2018年7月日本热浪中的影响为0.11°C。

更新日期:2019-10-25
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