The world is changing at a rapid rate, threatening extinction for a large part of the world's biota. One potential response to those altered conditions is to evolve so as to be able to persist in place. Such evolution includes not just traits themselves, but also the phenotypic plasticity of those traits. We used individual‐based simulations to explore the potential of an evolving phenotypic plasticity to increase the probability of persistence in the response to either a step change or continual, directional change in the environment accompanied by within‐generation random environmental fluctuations. Populations could evolve by altering both their nonplastic and plastic genetic components. We found that phenotypic plasticity enhanced survival and adaptation if that plasticity was not costly. If plasticity was costly, for it to be beneficial the phenotypic magnitude of plasticity had to be great enough in the initial generations to overcome those costs. These results were not sensitive to either the magnitude of the within‐generation correlation between the environment of development and the environment of selection or the magnitude of the environmental fluctuations, except for very small phenotypic magnitudes of plasticity. So, phenotypic plasticity has the potential to enhance survival; however, more data are needed on the ubiquity of trait plasticity, the extent of costs of plasticity, and the rate of mutational input of genetic variation for plasticity.

中文翻译：

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表型可塑性的遗传学。十七。对气候变化的反应。

世界瞬息万变，威胁着世界绝大部分生物的灭绝。对那些改变的条件的一种潜在反应是不断发展，以便能够坚持到位。这种进化不仅包括性状本身，还包括这些性状的表型可塑性。我们使用基于个体的模拟来探索不断发展的表型可塑性，以增加环境中阶跃变化或连续，方向变化伴随代内随机环境波动而持续存在的可能性。种群可以通过改变其非可塑性和可塑性遗传成分而进化。我们发现，如果可塑性不是很昂贵的话，表型可塑性可以提高存活率和适应性。如果可塑性高昂，为了使其受益，可塑性的表型幅度在最初的几代中必须足够大，以克服这些成本。这些结果对发展环境与选择环境之间的代内相关程度或环境波动程度均不敏感，除了非常小的表型可塑性。因此，表型可塑性具有提高生存能力的潜力。然而，关于性状可塑性的普遍性，可塑性成本的程度以及可塑性遗传变异的突变输入率还需要更多的数据。这些结果对发展环境与选择环境之间的代内相关程度或环境波动程度均不敏感，除了非常小的表型可塑性。因此，表型可塑性具有提高生存能力的潜力。然而，关于性状可塑性的普遍性，可塑性成本的程度以及可塑性遗传变异的突变输入率还需要更多的数据。这些结果对发展环境与选择环境之间的代内相关程度或环境波动程度不敏感，除了非常小的表型可塑性。因此，表型可塑性具有提高生存能力的潜力。然而，关于性状可塑性的普遍性，可塑性成本的程度以及可塑性遗传变异的突变输入率还需要更多的数据。