Forests play an important role in one of the most important ecosystem services, climate regulation. In order to mitigate climate change, various international agreements aim at decreasing emissions through Land-Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF) activities. In a legislative proposal by the European Union, emissions from forests are accounted for in relation to an estimate of average emissions for a range of years in the past. However, different forest structures, management activities, growth variations and impacts of changing climate may result in considerably different future emissions. We assessed the magnitude of potential uncertainties due to changing climate and forest management to the projections of carbon stocked in above- and belowground forest biomass in Finland until 2050. We used an area-based matrix model, which was developed to incorporate climate-induced tree growth as a time-inhomogeneous Markov chain. The potential amounts of both the carbon stored and extracted varied considerably depending on the level and allocation of future harvests. If realized, climate- or management-induced growth improvements could increase the carbon stocks by up to one third in the end of the simulated period. Projections based solely on business-as-usual transitions and harvests could therefore lead to inefficient decisions regarding future carbon stocks and harvesting possibilities.

森林在最重要的生态系统服务之一气候调节中发挥着重要作用。为了减轻气候变化，各种国际协议旨在通过土地利用，土地利用变化和林业（LULUCF）活动来减少排放。在欧洲联盟的一项立法提案中，森林排放量是根据过去几年范围内的平均排放量估算来计算的。但是，不同的森林结构，管理活动，生长变化以及气候变化的影响可能导致未来的排放量大不相同。我们根据气候变化和森林管理的变化，评估了到2050年之前芬兰地上和地下森林生物量碳储量的潜在不确定性的大小。我们使用了基于面积的矩阵模型，它被开发为将气候诱导的树木生长纳入时间不均匀的马尔可夫链。储存和提取的碳的潜在量根据未来收获的水平和分配而有很大不同。如果得以实现，气候或管理引起的增长改善可能会在模拟期末将碳储量增加多达三分之一。因此，仅基于照常的过渡和收获进行预测可能会导致有关未来碳储存和收获可能性的决策效率低下。在模拟期结束时，由气候或管理引起的增长改善可能使碳储量增加多达三分之一。因此，仅基于照常的过渡和收获进行预测可能会导致有关未来碳储存和收获可能性的决策效率低下。在模拟期结束时，由气候或管理引起的增长改善可能使碳储量增加多达三分之一。因此，仅基于照常的过渡和收获进行预测可能会导致有关未来碳储存和收获可能性的决策效率低下。