Understanding how anthropogenic activities and management actions influence the delivery of ecosystem services is complicated by the interrelated nature of diverse factors. We present a Bayesian Belief Network to highlight the likely consequences of a set of interventions on four wildlife-related ecosystem (dis)services and for supporting biodiversity and human welfare in the Greater Serengeti-Mara Ecosystem. According to the model, core protected areas are important for biodiversity and safari tourism provision. In adjacent game reserves safari tourism opportunities may be hampered by trophy and bushmeat hunting causing fear in wildlife. Most multiple-use areas strike a good balance between the costs and benefits derived from wildlife. Loliondo, however, requires drastic changes in management to either maximize green value creation or sustainable welfare. Although further globalization is expected to render highest levels of welfare, this will be at the expense of biodiversity and related ecosystem services. An online version of the model is available (https://africanbioservices.shinyapps.io/servicescape) to interactively explore five future scenarios with alternative management strategies, and visualization of the resultant consequences thereof. Identifying areas of conflicts and potential trade-offs between ecosystem (dis)services are crucial to find pathways to nature-based tourism strategies that simultaneously maintain biodiversity and promote the socioeconomic viability of local communities.

由于各种因素的相互联系，使人为活动和管理行为如何影响生态系统服务的交付变得复杂。我们提出了一个贝叶斯信仰网络，以强调针对四种与野生生物有关的生态系统（dis）服务采取一系列干预措施以及在大塞伦盖蒂-马拉生态系统中支持生物多样性和人类福祉的可能后果。根据该模型，核心保护区对于提供生物多样性和野生动物园旅游很重要。在邻近的野生动物保护区，狩猎活动和旅游机会可能会受到奖杯和森林猎物的阻碍，从而引起野生动植物的恐惧。大多数多用途区域在野生生物带来的成本和收益之间取得了很好的平衡。洛里安多（Loliondo），需要对管理进行大刀阔斧的变革，以最大程度地创造绿色价值或实现可持续的福利。尽管进一步的全球化有望带来最高水平的福利，但这将以生物多样性和相关生态系统服务为代价。该模型的在线版本可用（https://africanbioservices.shinyapps.io/servicescape）来交互地探索五种具有替代管理策略的未来方案，并可视化由此产生的后果。确定冲突区域和生态系统（服务）服务之间的潜在权衡，对于找到基于自然的旅游战略的途径至关重要，该战略可同时维护生物多样性并促进当地社区的社会经济生存能力。这将以生物多样性和相关生态系统服务为代价。该模型的在线版本可用（https://africanbioservices.shinyapps.io/servicescape）来交互地探索五种具有替代管理策略的未来方案，并可视化由此产生的后果。确定冲突区域和生态系统（服务）服务之间的潜在权衡，对于找到基于自然的旅游战略的途径至关重要，该战略可同时维护生物多样性并促进当地社区的社会经济生存能力。这将以生物多样性和相关生态系统服务为代价。可以使用该模型的在线版本（https://africanbioservices.shinyapps.io/servicescape），以替代管理策略交互地探索五个未来方案，并可视化由此产生的后果。确定冲突区域和生态系统（服务）服务之间的潜在权衡，对于找到基于自然的旅游战略的途径至关重要，该战略可同时维护生物多样性并促进当地社区的社会经济生存能力。以及由此产生的后果的可视化。确定冲突区域和生态系统（服务）服务之间的潜在权衡，对于找到基于自然的旅游战略的途径至关重要，该战略可同时维护生物多样性并促进当地社区的社会经济生存能力。以及由此产生的后果的可视化。确定冲突区域和生态系统（服务）服务之间的潜在权衡，对于找到基于自然的旅游战略的途径至关重要，该战略可同时维护生物多样性并促进当地社区的社会经济生存能力。