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Trends in incidence of total or type 2 diabetes: systematic review
The BMJ ( IF 105.7 ) Pub Date : 2019-09-11 00:00:00 , DOI: 10.1136/bmj.l5003
Dianna J Magliano 1, 2 , Rakibul M Islam 2, 3 , Elizabeth L M Barr 3 , Edward W Gregg 4, 5 , Meda E Pavkov 4 , Jessica L Harding 4 , Maryam Tabesh 2, 3 , Digsu N Koye 2, 3 , Jonathan E Shaw 2, 3
Affiliation  

Objective To assess what proportions of studies reported increasing, stable, or declining trends in the incidence of diagnosed diabetes.
Design Systematic review of studies reporting trends of diabetes incidence in adults from 1980 to 2017 according to PRISMA guidelines.
Data sources Medline, Embase, CINAHL, and reference lists of relevant publications.
Eligibility criteria Studies of open population based cohorts, diabetes registries, and administrative and health insurance databases on secular trends in the incidence of total diabetes or type 2 diabetes in adults were included. Poisson regression was used to model data by age group and year.
Results Among the 22 833 screened abstracts, 47 studies were included, providing data on 121 separate sex specific or ethnicity specific populations; 42 (89%) of the included studies reported on diagnosed diabetes. In 1960-89, 36% (8/22) of the populations studied had increasing trends in incidence of diabetes, 55% (12/22) had stable trends, and 9% (2/22) had decreasing trends. In 1990-2005, diabetes incidence increased in 66% (33/50) of populations, was stable in 32% (16/50), and decreased in 2% (1/50). In 2006-14, increasing trends were reported in only 33% (11/33) of populations, whereas 30% (10/33) and 36% (12/33) had stable or declining incidence, respectively.
Conclusions The incidence of clinically diagnosed diabetes has continued to rise in only a minority of populations studied since 2006, with over a third of populations having a fall in incidence in this time period. Preventive strategies could have contributed to the fall in diabetes incidence in recent years. Data are limited in low and middle income countries, where trends in diabetes incidence could be different.
Systematic review registration Prospero CRD42018092287.



中文翻译:

总体或 2 型糖尿病发病率趋势:系统评价

目的评估报告诊断糖尿病发病率增加、稳定或下降趋势的研究比例。
设计根据 PRISMA 指南对报告 1980 年至 2017 年成人糖尿病发病率趋势的研究进行系统评价。
数据来源Medline、Embase、CINAHL 和相关出版物的参考列表。
资格标准纳入开放人群队列、糖尿病登记以及行政和健康保险数据库关于成人总糖尿病或 2 型糖尿病发病率长期趋势的研究。泊松回归用于按年龄组和年份对数据进行建模。
结果在筛选的 22 833 篇摘要中,纳入了 47 项研究,提供了 121 个不同性别或种族特定人群的数据;纳入的研究中有 42 项(89%)报告了诊断为糖尿病。在 1960-89 年间,36% (8/22) 的研究人群的糖尿病发病率呈上升趋势,55% (12/22) 呈稳定趋势,9% (2/22) 呈下降趋势。1990-2005年,66%(33/50)的人群糖尿病发病率增加,32%(16/50)稳定,2%(1/50)下降。在 2006-14 年,仅 33% (11/33) 的人群报告了增加的趋势,而 30% (10/33) 和 36% (12/33) 的发病率分别保持稳定或下降。
结论自 2006 年以来,临床诊断糖尿病的发病率仅在少数研究人群中持续上升,超过三分之一的人群在此期间发病率下降。近年来,预防策略可能有助于降低糖尿病发病率。低收入和中等收入国家的数据有限,糖尿病发病率的趋势可能不同。
系统评价注册Prospero CRD42018092287。

更新日期:2019-09-12
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