Climate change is expected to alter the statistical properties of precipitation. There are two related but consequentially distinct theories for changes to precipitation that have received some consensus: (1) the time-and-space integrated global total precipitation should increase with longwave cooling as the surface warms, (2) the most intense precipitation rates should increase at a faster rate related to the increase in vapor saturation. Herein, these two expectations are combined with an analytic integration of three conceptually independent properties of the tropical hydrological cycle, the intensity, probability, and frequency of precipitation. The total precipitation in both a cloud-resolving model and tropical Global Precipitation Measurement mission data is decomposed and reconstructed with the analytic integral. By applying (1) and (2) to the precipitation characteristics from the model and observations to form a warming proxy model, it is suggested that a wide range of future distributions of precipitation intensity, probability, and frequency are possible.

预计气候变化将改变降水的统计特性。有两种相关但相应不同的降水变化理论已经达成共识：（1）随着地表变暖，随着长波冷却，全球时空综合总降水量应增加；（2）最强烈的降水率应以与蒸气饱和度增加相关的更快速度增加。在这里，这两个期望值与热带水文循环的三个概念上独立的特性，强度，降水的概率和频率的分析整合相结合。利用解析积分对云解析模型和热带全球降水测量任务数据中的总降水量进行分解和重建。