One of the main manifestations of the Grain-for-Green Programme (GFGP) is land use change, which will affect the trade-off of ecosystem services. Since the implementation of the GFGP in Dali Autonomous Prefecture in 2000, land use/cover has undergone dramatic changes. This study used the CLUE-S model to simulate land use change in 2030, and explored the spatial pattern and relationship of different ecosystem services under the four scenarios of GFGP. The results show that, GFGP can help to improve indirect services of ecosystems, such as carbon storage and soil conservation. However, direct services of the ecosystem will decline, such as food production and water yield. Compared with 2010, the overall supply level of the four ecosystem services is the most balanced in the moderate GFGP scenario. In this scenario, total food production decreased by 179,000 tons and water yield decreased by 57 million cubic meters. Carbon storage and soil conservation continued to grow, increasing by 21.86 million tons and 17.87 million tons, respectively. The changes of ecosystem services in the strong GFGP scenario are extreme. The increases in carbon storage and soil conservation are at the expense of a significant reduction in food production and water yield. It can be concluded that GFGP may lead to intensifying ecosystem services trade-offs. Through comparing the changes of ecosystem services under different GFGP scenarios, it is found that the implementation intensity of GFGP should be deeply concerned in policy making.

粮食换绿色计划（GFGP）的主要表现之一是土地利用的变化，这将影响生态系统服务的权衡。自2000年在大理州实施GFGP以来，土地使用/覆盖面积发生了翻天覆地的变化。这项研究使用CLUE-S模型模拟了2030年的土地利用变化，并探讨了在GFGP的四种情景下不同生态系统服务的空间格局和关系。结果表明，GFGP可以帮助改善生态系统的间接服务，例如碳储存和水土保持。但是，生态系统的直接服务将下降，例如粮食产量和水产量。与2010年相比，在温和的GFGP情景下，四种生态系统服务的总体供应水平最为平衡。在这种情况下，粮食总产量减少了17.9万吨，水产量减少了5700万立方米。碳储量和水土保持继续增长，分别增加了2186万吨和1787万吨。在强大的GFGP情景下，生态系统服务的变化是极端的。碳储存和土壤保持的增加是以粮食产量和水产量的显着下降为代价的。可以得出结论，GFGP可能导致生态系统服务权衡加剧。通过比较不同GFGP情景下生态系统服务的变化，发现GFGP的实施强度应在政策制定中予以深切关注。分别为8600万吨和1787万吨。在强大的GFGP情景下，生态系统服务的变化是极端的。碳储存和土壤保持的增加是以粮食产量和水产量的显着下降为代价的。可以得出结论，GFGP可能导致生态系统服务权衡加剧。通过比较不同GFGP情景下生态系统服务的变化，发现GFGP的实施强度应在政策制定中予以深切关注。分别为8600万吨和1787万吨。在强大的GFGP情景中，生态系统服务的变化是极端的。碳储存和土壤保持的增加是以粮食产量和水产量的显着下降为代价的。可以得出结论，GFGP可能导致生态系统服务权衡加剧。通过比较不同GFGP情景下生态系统服务的变化，发现GFGP的实施强度应在政策制定中予以深切关注。可以得出结论，GFGP可能导致生态系统服务权衡加剧。通过比较不同GFGP情景下生态系统服务的变化，发现GFGP的实施强度应在政策制定中予以深切关注。可以得出结论，GFGP可能导致生态系统服务权衡加剧。通过比较不同GFGP情景下生态系统服务的变化，发现GFGP的实施强度应在政策制定中予以深切关注。