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Flood insurance arrangements in the European Union for future flood risk under climate and socioeconomic change
Global Environmental Change ( IF 8.9 ) Pub Date : 2019-08-27 , DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2019.101966
Paul Hudson , W.J. Wouter Botzen , Jeroen C.J.H. Aerts

Flood risk will increase in many areas around the world due to climate change and increase in economic exposure. This implies that adequate flood insurance schemes are needed to adapt to increasing flood risk and to minimise welfare losses for households in flood-prone areas. Flood insurance markets may need reform to offer sufficient and affordable financial protection and incentives for risk reduction. Here, we present the results of a study that aims to evaluate the ability of flood insurance arrangements in Europe to cope with trends in flood risk, using criteria that encompass common elements of the policy debate on flood insurance reform. We show that the average risk-based flood insurance premium could double between 2015 and 2055 in the absence of more risk reduction by households exposed to flooding. We show that part of the expected future increase in flood risk could be limited by flood insurance mechanisms that better incentivise risk reduction by policyholders, which lowers vulnerability. The affordability of flood insurance can be improved by introducing the key features of public-private partnerships (PPPs), which include public reinsurance, limited premium cross-subsidisation between low- and high-risk households, and incentives for policyholder-level risk reduction. These findings were evaluated in a comprehensive sensitivity analysis and support ongoing reforms in Europe and abroad that move towards risk-based premiums and link insurance with risk reduction, strengthen purchase requirements, and engage in multi-stakeholder partnerships.



中文翻译:

欧洲联盟针对气候和社会经济变化下未来洪水风险的洪水保险安排

由于气候变化和经济风险的增加,世界许多地区的洪灾风险将增加。这意味着需要适当的洪水保险计划,以适应不断增加的洪水风险,并使洪水多发地区的家庭的福利损失降至最低。洪水保险市场可能需要进行改革,以提供足够的和负担得起的金融保护以及降低风险的激励措施。在这里,我们介绍一项研究的结果,该研究旨在使用涵盖洪水保险改革政策辩论共同要素的标准,评估欧洲的洪水保险安排应对洪水风险趋势的能力。我们表明,如果没有更多的家庭可以降低遭受洪水的风险,基于风险的洪水保险的平均保费在2015年至2055年之间可能会翻一番。我们表明,洪水风险的预期未来增长的一部分可能受到洪水保险机制的限制,该机制可以更好地激励投保人降低风险,从而降低脆弱性。可以通过引入公私合作伙伴关系(PPP)的关键特征来提高洪水保险的可负担性,这些特征包括公共再保险,低风险和高风险家庭之间有限的保费交叉补贴以及降低保单持有人风险的激励措施。在全面的敏感性分析中对这些发现进行了评估,并支持欧洲和国外正在进行的改革,这些改革正在朝着基于风险的保费迈进,并将保险与降低风险联系在一起,加强了购买要求,并建立了多方利益相关者的伙伴关系。

更新日期:2019-08-27
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